- Today we had a positive news from UK saying that they’re considering to pay into EU for single market access, which means the chance for hard Brexit has diminished further. Moreover, the futures contract for short GBP/USD has also decreased significantly for the past few days. Things are looking more positive for UK. However, when looking at price action, most GBP pairs has retraced from this positive news, meaning that whatever positivity into GBP nowadays are all short lived as investors in general still feel uncertain about UK’s future. Meanwhile, AUD had negative sentiment due to commodity price and negative datas, but fundamentally AUD is still one of the best currency out there and Chinese datas continued to be positive to support AUD. Basically, this reversal signal we have today might be a good chance for us to short into it because of the fundamental reason and price action.
- The catalyst was the UK brexit news
- We’re still in a downtrend but right now below critical resistance
- The risk is the sentiment as we’re entering against the current sentiment in these 2 currencies.
- I’ll manage it with the sentiment but most likely to reduce my SL asap. The biggest risk is another good news from GBP or a very negative risk off market.
- Yes because i like the fundamental strength in AUD, i like the price action and position of the candlestick, and I also like the fact that a good news from UK did not support the GBP too well as we had many kangaroo tail across GBP pairs for today.
SL @ 1.7318
We have continuous positive sentiment into GBP and the UK construction PMI was more positive than expected and previous number.
We don't see enough bearish weakness into GBP nor enough bullish strength into AUD, therefore, we've cancelled our trade ahead of NFP and weekend to avoid whipsaws.