- We had a risk on sentiment day today due to the clearance of FBI into Hilary’s email investigation. The market reacted positively and AUD was the strongest currency for today. The good thing about these 2 currencies is they both hedge out each other for risk off sentiment, so even if tomorrow is a win for Donald, we will have limited risk on this pair. Furthermore, we have RBNZ decision coming out this week, which we can actually short into the event as NZD has been largely bought last week and the probability of a rate cut is high. On the other hand, AUD has been fundamentally strong and no further easing from RBA as well.
- The catalyst is the rate decision of RBNZ.
- We’re at the 50% area of fib.l
- The risk is the election result which might drags AUD or NZD down more than the other; the other risk is the rate decision that RBNZ does not cut. We hope to be able to move SL to BE prior to that.
- I’ll manage it with RBNZ news and general sentiment.
- Yes because we have no AUD news coming out this week, and the high probability of rate cut for NZD + the large buying into NZD last week all provide a good chance for us to short it into the event.
SL @ 1.0408
we cancelled the trade because it’s not filled, and now flat prior to the election result.