EUR/AUD SHORT
SHORT EUR/UAD
@ 1.4684
SL @ 1.4924
10/12
10/13
10/17
10/18
Move SL @ 1.4677
10/19
Move SL @ 1.4486
10/24
Move SL @ 1.4440
10/28
out @ 1.4440, total pips 244
- EURO has suffered from the negative sentiment of GBP, the banks stability and continuous easing. Meanwhile, AUD is a more strong currency both fundamentally and sentimentally.
- The catalyst is the large selling of GBP, the negative sentiment of Eurozone as UK leaves, the banking system of Europe.
- we’re in an oversold touristy but still rooms to go.
- The risk is really the 2 things; the tapering of ECB easing which will boost EURO if this is confirmed as a fact not just rumour; and the RBA dovish statement.
- I’ll manage with the above mentioned risks
- Yes as i do have more confidence toward AUD both fundamentally and sentimentally.
SHORT EUR/UAD
@ 1.4684
SL @ 1.4924
- We got in this trade during the Asia session and market reacted well at the beginning, however, the day ended up with risk off sentiment to help EUR and we are in drawdown now.
- I think AUD really has no major news coming up so does EUR, and now the market is really short-term bias with sentiment play, with the current UK concerns, we might have more risk off sentiment which can hurt us, or some result might come out next week to settle things out - we never really know what’s gonna happen in the market, so what can do is really protect ourselves.
- I’m still in this trade is because although i’m in drawdown now, the fundamental reason is still with me to favour AUD, while EUR might suffers from more negative sentiment because of UK and/or things might settle down and we have risk on sentiment next week. It’s too early to tell so i’m still in.
- Fundamentally i’l still get into this trade but maybe it’s better to wait for more clear signals next week, we might test the 1.4850 area before we drop further, the good thing is that we’re in with the bigger trend which is down but bad thing is that we might get in too early and will be stuck in the range or worse, stopped out.
10/12
- This trade has been working well; we had more sentimental strength into AUD and EUR is still pressured by the Brexit and should continue to be pressured until the whole things settle next year.
10/13
- we had a small rebound today which was expected, also AUD had a negative sentiment from both risk off day and negative reading from Chinese Trade Balance. We still think this trade is going to work out in a long run as EURO has much more negative sentiment and datas than AUD.
10/17
- AUD continued to be strong than most currencies, however, the RBA is getting worried and might use more negative comment to talk down the AUD, anyhow, we are at a good level to reduce our SL again.
10/18
- We had another large drop day for EUR/AUD and now AUD is really in strength. Although this is a good news for us, but i felt that a correction might come soon since we’re are in one way direction for almost 10 days. Once the risk sentiment shifts or tomorrow if the Employment datas from AUD are negative, then we might have a large reversal. We now moved our SL to below BE. This trade is risk free now.
Move SL @ 1.4677
10/19
- AUD continued to gain strength while EUR continued to be sold off especially ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting. The risk in this trade is if ECB has announced the details for tapering, then that might boost the EUR temporary, but if tomorrow happens to be risk off sentiment day, then the reversal in EUR might be really strong. We’re going to tighten up our SL further now due to this important risk event to the immediate swing high +10 pis at 1.4486, which is still 200 pips and more from us. I’ll most likely monitor live tomorrow and make my decision to see whether i’ll get out.
Move SL @ 1.4486
10/24
- AUD is still well supported in comparison with EURO, that had a negative sentiment from ECB comments last week. This week, we have another ECB comments that might effect our position, but moreover, we had trimmed mean CPI coming out from AUD, that is an important data for RBA to look out for. Since the last employment data from AUD were largely negative, if the CPI comes out as negative, then that will put AUD in a bad position and we might get stopped out. We are tightening our SL again to immediate swing high now.
Move SL @ 1.4440
10/28
out @ 1.4440, total pips 244