EUR/AUD
SHORT EUR/AUD
@ 1.4939
SL @ 1.5189
9/19
move SL @ 1.5106
9/20
move SL @ 1.5002
9/21
move SL @ 1.4925 (BE now)
9/22
move SL @ 1.4850
9/25
move SL @ 1.4791
9/28
another risk on sentiment day to help this trade and we’re going low again, no tightening on the stop loss yet, hope we can break below 1.4600 further to reach 1.4450.
9/29
a sold off day for AUD as mentioned due to profit taking, and positive momentum for EUR due to month end inflow. Our view for these 2 currencies are still the same, EURO as more negative both fundamentally and sentimentally than AUD, however, we're still tightening our SL to protect ourselves.
move SL @ 1.4782
9/30
another indecisive day for this pair. Good news from EURO to help EUR but also the risk on sentiment to help AUD.
Fundamentally AUD is still stronger but both currencies are largely driven by sentiment nowadays, so we’ll see what happens next week.
move SL @ 1.4754
10/4
we had a green candle today due to AUD weakness, however, we also had a green candle few days ago that did not work out, so we're really in this tiny box now.
I think there is no significant hint to give us whether which currencies are going stronger sentimentally, AUD has negative sentiment from Risk off tone and RBA comments and rate cut possibility while EURO has negative sentiment from GBP.
Fundamentally AUD is still stronger and now it did not give us a real reversal signal while there is still room to go downside, so we'll just hold it and are fine to get stopped out as we're BE for this trade already. Risk Free.
10/5
we got stopped out today at 1.4754
total plus 185 pips
- AUD has the second highest interest rate and also benefited greatly from China’s trade and commodities demand. The RBA also has less possibility to cut rate in the immediate future, meanwhile, EUR suffered a low interest rate, economic downturn and unstable future as an organization due to Brexit and many possible others to follow. Today we had a risk on day and we saw a large Bearish Big Shadow closing below 200 EMA.
- The catalyst is the risk sentiment as we had an on day.
- We’re in an oversold territory but with rooms to go down more.
- The risk is the sentiment turns off which will boost EUR, or any negative comment from RBA. But with the negative employment datas today from AUD and yet we will had an up day for AUD, i think the risk sentiment is really playing a big part of AUD now.
- I’ll manage it with the fundamental side of AUD or EUR, and possibility to get out if we really have something negative for the sentiment; otherwise, i think the risk sentiment can be changed day to day and we should avoid the noises when trading in daily timeframe.
- Yes
SHORT EUR/AUD
@ 1.4939
SL @ 1.5189
- The market reacts to the technical chart and fundamental by favouring in our downward direction. However, as mentioned the risk sentiment is actually off today but we did not see safe heaven currency like EUR goes up. This is very interesting but also puzzling for us to find a clear direction in the future.
- We wil have monetary meeting minutes next monday which will have some impact and volatility but nothing major should happen because the next rate meeting for AUD is still far away.
- I’m still in this trade because of the Fundamental picture of AUD vs EUR and the price action is working in our direct now, however, i’m aware of the risk of the sentiment changes and negative comments from RBA so i’m moving my SL day by day next week.
9/19
move SL @ 1.5106
9/20
move SL @ 1.5002
9/21
move SL @ 1.4925 (BE now)
9/22
move SL @ 1.4850
9/25
move SL @ 1.4791
9/28
another risk on sentiment day to help this trade and we’re going low again, no tightening on the stop loss yet, hope we can break below 1.4600 further to reach 1.4450.
9/29
a sold off day for AUD as mentioned due to profit taking, and positive momentum for EUR due to month end inflow. Our view for these 2 currencies are still the same, EURO as more negative both fundamentally and sentimentally than AUD, however, we're still tightening our SL to protect ourselves.
move SL @ 1.4782
9/30
another indecisive day for this pair. Good news from EURO to help EUR but also the risk on sentiment to help AUD.
Fundamentally AUD is still stronger but both currencies are largely driven by sentiment nowadays, so we’ll see what happens next week.
move SL @ 1.4754
10/4
we had a green candle today due to AUD weakness, however, we also had a green candle few days ago that did not work out, so we're really in this tiny box now.
I think there is no significant hint to give us whether which currencies are going stronger sentimentally, AUD has negative sentiment from Risk off tone and RBA comments and rate cut possibility while EURO has negative sentiment from GBP.
Fundamentally AUD is still stronger and now it did not give us a real reversal signal while there is still room to go downside, so we'll just hold it and are fine to get stopped out as we're BE for this trade already. Risk Free.
10/5
we got stopped out today at 1.4754
total plus 185 pips