CPI M/M
expected 0.3%
Max 0.6%
Min 0.1%
average 0.29%, previous -0.2%, -0.4%, 0.2%, 0.1%
CPI Y/Y
expected 1.6%
Max 1.9%
Min 1.4%
average 3.16%, previous 1.5%, 1.2%, 1.5%, 1.3%
Core CPI M/M
prior -0.3%
Core CPI YY
prior 1.6%, 1.5%, 1.7%, 1.8% average 2.21%
****updated Feb 27th 8am****
We got in this trade last Friday upon positive deviations in all 4 CPI datas, unfortunately, the trade never worked out regardless of the positive datas and the resilient oil market strength.
The main reason was because Japanese Yen had remained to be very strong ahead into the weekend and the risk event of Donald Trump’s speech.
Then dollar also regained strength over Japanese Yen and CAD, which further pushed down CAD/JPY.
The only CAD pair that would have worked better was GBP/CAD, but that’s mainly because GBP suffered negative sentiment over the weekend from Scotland Independence Referendum.
Basically CAD had been sold off across the board.
Another reason is traders are priced in for a dovish BOC on Wednesday.
- We will have the CPI and Core CPI today from Canada. Low inflation has been an issue for many country and Canada is no exceptional. The recent GDP had been quiet promising, the labour market was also resilient, however, the retail sales this week were largely negative and the oil market although well supported but still had few issues such as high built in Crude inventories. Today the CPI will set the tone for CAD, we’re leaning toward a positive result because that will give us a good fundamental picture of GDP, Employments & CPI. If thats the case and we have at least one deviation in CPI m/m core m/m y/y core y/y with all concurrent positive results, we can buy CAD against weak currencies notably Japanese yen as Yen has been largely bought off during this session. However, if CPI figures are largely negative with concurrent negativities and one deviation, we can sell CAD against the stronger currencies such as AUD or NZD or simply sell it against the current risk off sentiment JPY & CHF.
- The catalyst is the CPI datas from Canada
- We’re right at the bottom/top for CAD/JPY & EUR/CAD and i think both pairs are eligible for CAD long. AUD/CAD & NZD/CAD are both good for CAD short.
- The risk is not enough momentum to drive the price up so be sure to only get into the trade if we have deviations and all concurrent results.
- The projection is neutral to bullish for CAD due to oil market strength, but the internal economic picture of CAD was weak due to this week’s disappointed retail sales figures.
- Yes but only if we have positive/negaitve datas and at least one deviations.
CPI M/M
expected 0.3%
Max 0.6%
Min 0.1%
average 0.29%, previous -0.2%, -0.4%, 0.2%, 0.1%
CPI Y/Y
expected 1.6%
Max 1.9%
Min 1.4%
average 3.16%, previous 1.5%, 1.2%, 1.5%, 1.3%
Core CPI M/M
prior -0.3%
Core CPI YY
prior 1.6%, 1.5%, 1.7%, 1.8% average 2.21%
****updated Feb 27th 8am****
We got in this trade last Friday upon positive deviations in all 4 CPI datas, unfortunately, the trade never worked out regardless of the positive datas and the resilient oil market strength.
The main reason was because Japanese Yen had remained to be very strong ahead into the weekend and the risk event of Donald Trump’s speech.
Then dollar also regained strength over Japanese Yen and CAD, which further pushed down CAD/JPY.
The only CAD pair that would have worked better was GBP/CAD, but that’s mainly because GBP suffered negative sentiment over the weekend from Scotland Independence Referendum.
Basically CAD had been sold off across the board.
Another reason is traders are priced in for a dovish BOC on Wednesday.