****DAILY SIGNAL IN AUD/CHF, AUD/NZD, AUD/USD,
- AUD has a large trade balance surplus during the Asian session to boost it’s economic strength. Although the surplus might not be sustainable as it largely came from higher commodity price, but it should boost the GDP for next quarter which was contracted last quarter and was a big worry for AUD. The fundamental risk remains the same as AUD is so susceptible toward commodity price and Chinese economics. But as for now, the good fundamental data will boost its strength. Meanwhile, the negative sentiment of USD has also helped AUD to take the lead for high yield currency right now. Another help was from NZD as this week’s employment data provided to be a disappointment, and now AUD became the only star in the high yield currencies. Technically we had a big shadow signal in both AUD/CHF & AUD/NZD while AUD/USD has a inside bar kangaroo tail signal. All 3 pairs also fit into the picture of fundamental & sentiment strength versus weakness. Due to the current sentiment of the global market, we will NOT do any daily trade because of the sentiment. If you want to take DAILY TRADE as SWING TARDE, I will go with AUD/NZD and will put the entry at below.
- The catalyst was the AUD Trade Balance which came out as very positive. AUD had already been supported days ago from the weak sentiment of USD and the fundamental weakness of NZD, now it really took the lead among high yield currency.
- AUD/USD has already gone up very high for the day to more than R2 level, we will have to wait for a retrace before we get into it. AUD/NZD is still below R1 level and we will also wait for retrace to get into it. AUD/CHF also got up to R1 level already, and we will also wait for retrace. We will i favour for AUD/NZD because the risk sentiment is currently off form Asian equities, AUD/CHF might be pressed down later on in European session.
- The risk is really to get in at the high now, because the Risk Event was a large surprise and we might have feeling of missing out the trade to jump in - but as mentioned, never buy high and sell low so it’s really best to wait.
- I’ll manage it with standard 100 pips SL and tighten up the SL with each swing, or depends on how the fundamental results .
- Yes but only if we can have some retracement otherwise we’ll just let the trade go.
****wait for Hourly signal in London session****
DAILY CAHRT entry is also valid but RBA is going to have rate decision next Monday so be careful holding any AUD trade
LONG @ 1.0449
SL @ 1.0319
we didn’t really have any hourly signal nor has the price come down to fill us in for Daily Trade. Therefore, we cancelled the pending orders.