- Eur had gone through a huge drop from yesterday because Le Penn starts her presidential bid. Although we were bearish in EUR and was hoping to ride EUR/JPY & EUR/CHF to the downward since London session, however, we did not have that happens, on the contrary, we started having a reversal movement into it due to the equity markets recovered from risk off sentiment. Yesterday EUR/JPY went 154 pips with average daily range of 115, EUR/CHF went 55 pips with average daily range of 42. Both paris have gone more than daily range and if the market calms down today, we think we might have a reversal into EUR pairs but only with these 2 as market was panicking yesterday. We also need a 4H reversal signal Big Shadow or Hourly signal before we get in any trade. Right now we have both 1H and 4H big shadow in EUR/JPY and 4H big shadow in EUR/CHF. EUR/CHF has climbed up 28 pips which is more than half of the daily range while EUR/JPY has climbed up 51 pips still only 1/3 of the daily range. We’d like to long EUR/JPY in 4H with big shadow.
- The catalyst was yesterday’s La Pen joining Franc election which was not a surprise at all, but market panicking sell EUR across the board fuelled up by risk off sentiment to help JPY even further.
- We’re in the oversold area and have a good odds to see it picking up.
- The risk is the whipsaw or continuing downside to EUR but there isn’t really any fundamental reason for EUR to go weaker, so the risk is really in the senitmnetnal rea.
- The future projection are both negative fudnaemtanlly for ear and joy but ear since to go higher as long as we don’ thane any risk off event happening.
- Yes but only if we get filled in the next 4H and aim for 1:1 to set to BE or take profit
SL @ 119.53
****updates 1pm EST Feb 7th****
We got filled in the next 4H and we’re in this trade now.
The fundamental picture looks good as the equity markets are all currently up, the EUR seems to hit the bottom previously, however, we’re in a big drawdown, of course still early to say as this is a 4H trade, but nevertheless, it’s not a good sign to have such a huge drawdown.
We’re hoping it’s a retest to the downside and if that’s the case, we should have another Kangaroo tail in the next 4H which will be very good for upside.
Or, we might just get stopped out.