- We’re going to have GDT price for NZD today, although not really a tradable event as this is not scheduled, but since i’m in front of my screen now, i think any large surplus will be a good buy. I’m only looking to buy because NZD had enjoyed a good ride from the positive inflation expectation report last night, the current risk on sentiment today, the strong economic strength especially moreover than AUD and the very little chance to none for RBNZ to cut this week. The weaker currencies to pair up would be USD & EUR, but because the risk sentiment is on now, so JPY & CHF are also considerable.
- The catalyst would be the GDT price and only if we have large surplus above 1% as the futures market is pricing down for this data. Obviously the higher the better.
- NZD/USD is below PP level and good for long, EUR.NZD is also near PP, nzd.jpy is also good while NZD/CHF is bait high.
- We’ll only go long if we have positive data and will most likely go with EUR/NZD as EUR is really weak with the current political sentiment now, NZD/JPY is also not bad.
- The future projection is a contiuaon strength in NZD
- yes but only if web aver number larger than 1%
we just realized that EUR/NZD has already outside the daily pivot levels, so we’ll go with NZD/JPY instead as USD is really strong now and the trade balance data might favour it later on.
gbp/nzd is also a no go as it’s trading outside the pivot levels as well.
THE GDT PRICE WAS quiet positive and we have picked a long with NZD/USD.
The reason is because all other pairs EUR/NZD & GBP/NZD had been outside the pivot level already, we have a high chance for some large retracement before it takes off again.
we didn’t go with NZD/JPY because we are already in a pending order with EUR/JPY long so we don’t want to sell JPY twice should any risk event suddenly happens.
WE chose USD because dollar is still in the weak spot comparison with NZD, the current fundamental datas have no meaning to it and the court decision or more of Donald Trump will continue to pressure dollar to the downside.
The GDT price is positive than previous and the expectation was low, so this alone is a good surprise.
ON top of that, we are very confident for the fundamental strength of NZD and think it will continue to outperform other currencies for this week.
Meanwhile, our SL is below the handle of 0.7250 which is a strong daily support, also below 0.7200 which haven’t been touched since we broke above in Jan 23rd.
So the downside supports are quiet strong while upside is is looking for 0.7400.
LONG @ 0.7294
SL @ 0.7194