****Daily signal GBP/CHF, GBP/USD, GBP/NZD, GBP/JPY****
- GBP has been driven largely by the sentiment recently, from the BOE hike expectation to Brexit excessive pessimism to optimism. Right now the market seems to be back on the normal level, it has digested the BOE disappointment, the Brexit fear, and now focus on what’s in front of them which is the triggering of article 50 and the negotiation in March. Since the Parliament is now involved in the negotiation, people somehow calmed down and the whole sentiment has shifted to the upside. In comparison, the EUR still has uncertainty day to day from the French election and the U.S also has uncertainty day to day from Donald Trump, it seems that UK has now become a better bet out of the 3 currencies. Because of that, we can buy GBP against the weak currencies that suffers greatly in fundamental weakness or sentential weakness. Today we have daily signal in GBP/CHF, GBP/USD, GBP/NZD & GBP/JPY. We will not trade against NZD as it does not work both fundamentally and sentimentally. USD, JPY & CHF both safe heaven currencies will be a good bet against GBP. Because we’re already in NZD/USD Long and EUR/JPY long, we don’t want to take JPY & USD again, and that will leave us with GBP/CHF to trade.
- The catalyst was the current global risk sentiment and the regain confidence of GBP from the parliament involvement in Brexit now.
- From daily perspective, we’re still within a range of up and down. From hourly perspective, we’re slightly above PP level and above 100MA. The daily range of GBPCHF is around 120 pips and we have travelled 31 pips so far.
- The risk is any sudden event to cause global panic which will tank GBP as money flows into safe heaven CHF & JPY. We will have to keep an eye on it and most likely it might come from the resume of Travel Ban from U.S. So far i think that will be the main risk event we have and is more likely to happen for this week.
- I’ll manage it with news update and if we really have a sudden risk event from U.S, then it’s best for us to get out.
- Yes but only if we have a hourly signal and enough room to run, and watch out for any updates from U.S and UK parliament and government.
LONG GBP/CHF (GBP/JPY & GBP/USD are also available if you’re not in USD & JPY)
****waiting for Hourly Signal****