- US has provided consecutive of promising datas from 2016 until now, last week’s NFP has once again showed the strength of the fundamental side of USD. However, the market has been selling dollar due to the negative sentiment from the press conference by Donald Trump. The market also sell USD for possible profit taking and the uncertainty lies ahead for Jan 20th as the new president takes office. Meanwhile, GBP continues to suffer from Brexit talks and negative sentiment regardless of the good datas. EUR also suffers from political unstableness in this year regardless of the good datas. So basically GBP and EUR are in the same boat with more negativity in GBP now. People expect GBP to continue to go lower and so does EUR.
- The catalyst was the press conference from Donald Trump which has pushed USD to a low level to give us a technical signal now in both EUR/USD & GBP/USD.
- GBP/USD is actually at the fresh new low now and not a real ideal level to short verssu EUR/USD, however, GBP/USD does have a better sentimental reason to short it than EUR/USD as GBP has more negative news and uncertainty than EUR. So both are fine b/c they both have their reasons to short against USD.
- The risk in shorting GBP/USD is that we’re at a very low level now so we might have large buying power from 1.20 level, another risk is that PM May’s speech next week might actually be positive. EUR/USD is in a much better position technically speaking, but we don’t really have any fresh new reason to sell EUR, the only reason is for us to buy USD.
- I’ll manage it with the updates from news as fundamentally view does support shorting EUR/USD & GPB/USD but we might get whipsaw if USD continues to lose strength.
- I decided to only short EUR/USD as i’m less confident in shorting GBP/USD at this low level + the signal today is not really an ideal signal as we don’t have enough space for the tail of candlestick nor the body. EUR/USD on the other hand is a much better signal.
SL @ 1.0778
the trade was not filled, cancelled.