LONG NZD/JPY
@ 82.66
SL @ 80.36
updated Jan 26th
updated on Sunday Jan 30th
updated on Monday Jan 30th
Second, we’re selling JPY while the safe heaven sentiment is still very high, and to prevent a nasty drawdown in the sentiment trap, we have decided to release our JPY positions to protect ourselves.
Set NZD/JPY SL @ 82.67
updated Tue Jan 31st
We got stopped out at BE today due to large buying into Japanese Yen from risk off sentiment from Donald Trump’s comments.
- NZD has released its CPI datas today which both q/q and y/y came out as very positive, almost a positive deviation. Meanwhile, all equity markets had hit high today with Dow making historically high to signal a strong risk on sentiment. The fundamental datas from European countries have been promising for 2017, and U.S datas continued to be solid. Previouisly we had negative sentiment from Donald Trump but because he had been fulfilling his election promises so far, market has anticipated his next move as he promised, to remove the banking regulation, tax cut and fiscal policies to further heating the economy. The sentiment is expected to continue if that happens. This of course is also a sentimental reason to pressure safe haven currencies of JPY & CHF. Meanwhile, JPY although had good trade balance due to weak currency, the government budget deficit continued to widen due to lack of tax revenue and weak consumption. The bond buying program continues with BOJ and they will need cheap JPY to keep pushing the program and boost the inflation. We now have a strong fundamental reason to buy NZD and sell JPY, we also have a strong sentimental reason to buy NZD and sell JPY. Technically, we have a “spoon” pattern in NZD/JPY with strong bullish candlestick to signal a breakout of the current range.
- The catalyst is the CPI datas from NZD today to put it as the strongest currency for 2017 both fundamental and sentimental.
- We’re at a good high area with lots of room to go.
- The bias of course is that we’re at hight and some traders might want to buy at low and some might even take profit at this level. Also we are already in AUD/JPY trade so if we get into this trade, we will be in 2 JPY trades to increase our risk. The reason we might want to do that is because if we’re flat, we might actually risk 2% in NZD/JPY trade because now we have both fundamental & sentimental lining up in this trade while the sentimental reason is very fresh, less than 24hrs. We also have a great technical pattern to support our price action. So now because of the current AUD/JPY trade, we will actually use 1% instead. I’ll manage it with risk sentiment as this will be the only driver to drive this pair, but i’ll also use larger stop loss as i’m expecting to hold this trade for mid-term to longterm.
- I’ll manage it with news updates and really hold it for more midterm to longterm.
- Yes it’s a good chance to enter with both fundamental, sentimental and technical on our side while the catalyst was also fresh and new.
LONG NZD/JPY
@ 82.66
SL @ 80.36
updated Jan 26th
- We got in when we had another bullish big shadow to break above the trade.
- Although the risk sentiment is strong, but we expect it to retrace as tomorrow is Friday and it’s a natural cycle of the market to retrace after a rally. However, because of the strong CPI has removed the biggest concern for NZD, meanwhile, JPY still suffers the low inflationary market and we don’t see they tapper bond buying program anytime soon. So although next we do have BOJ meeting but I’m expecting a neutral to dovish tone especially right now Japan is still unclear of its future trading position with U.S. Because of that, my outlook for NZD/JPY is still the same with strong fundamental & sentimental all lie with NZD and unless that aspect changes, otherwise i’m going to hold this trade for quiet some time.
updated on Sunday Jan 30th
- we broke out our current range with 2 consecutive rally on Thursday and Friday to reach a new high of 83.80, however, it is expected to see some retrace down to 82.50 before it takes off again.
- We’re still holding this trade because our view for NZD is currently fundamentally and sentimentally strong, however, this week’s risk events might shift the sentiment to the downside to pressure our trade, moreover, the employment datas of NZD will be out on Thursday.
updated on Monday Jan 30th
- because we got in one more trade @ USD/JPY now our total JPY position is more than 1% so we have to reduce the position. Because NZD is going to have the Employment data later in NY afternoon, which although expected to be positive or in line, but any upset could turn our trade around to the downside. Because of that, we have decided to set our SL to BE for now and re-entered later on with the risk event of NZD as a new catalyst.
Second, we’re selling JPY while the safe heaven sentiment is still very high, and to prevent a nasty drawdown in the sentiment trap, we have decided to release our JPY positions to protect ourselves.
Set NZD/JPY SL @ 82.67
updated Tue Jan 31st
We got stopped out at BE today due to large buying into Japanese Yen from risk off sentiment from Donald Trump’s comments.