SHORT EUR/USD
@ 1.07
sl @ 1.09
p @ 1
****updated March 15th****
we got filled today due to the dollar weakness from FOMC and EUR strength from Dutch election.
The sentiment is completely against now, but the fundamental bias is still in check.
We will expect another days of drawdown in this pair and if we don’t get stopped out, EUR/USD should resume to the downside once the sentiment faded.
- Fed is scheduled to raise interest rate this Wednesday and although we might have some USD selling initially due to 2 reasons; if the rate is hiked then we will have selling fact buying rumour effect, if the rate is NOT hike then we will have disappointed selling of USD. Nevertheless, in the mid term perspective, regardless of rate hike or not, rate is going to be hiked if not March then June. The Fed has become very hawkish recently with the solid evidences of economic strength by all the positive datas in GDP, inflations and employments. The fundamental picture is very complete now. Meanwhile, the last ECB meeting we saw ECB became less dovish and therefore we saw strength into EURO. However, comparing to Fed, ECB is still in a much dovish stance and we’re not likely to see any rate hike until the end of QE which is Dec 2017, by that time Fed is expected to have 2 or 3 more hikes. Fundamental datas have also been great for Eurozone but not as good as U.S, and finally the bond yield is getting higher with U.S 10 years at 2.625 today and EUR at 0.471 today. Technically we’re at weekly resistance of 1.07 and 100 EMA. We also had a red candle reacted in this level, not as good as Kangaroo Tail and we might still have another reaction for selling USD because of the selling fact effect, we will most likely put pending sell at 1.07 handle with sl above 1.0850.
- The catalyst was the ECB less dovish stance to push EUR/USD up to a higher level, the sentiment has turned strong for EUR but once the sentiment fades then the strength V.S weakness is still very large in this pair for us to short at attractive levels.
- We’re at the good level to short
- The risk is another spike up due to Fed meeting this Wednesday, therefore we better off to put SL at 1.09.
- I’ll manage it with underlying fundamental pictures.
- Yes as we have all criterias in check now.
SHORT EUR/USD
@ 1.07
sl @ 1.09
p @ 1
****updated March 15th****
we got filled today due to the dollar weakness from FOMC and EUR strength from Dutch election.
The sentiment is completely against now, but the fundamental bias is still in check.
We will expect another days of drawdown in this pair and if we don’t get stopped out, EUR/USD should resume to the downside once the sentiment faded.