- The market was open with signifnat risk off sentiment coming from last Friday’s healthcare bill which was pulled by the Repbulican at last minutes. Donald Trump’s ability is serverly doubted and risk off sentiment has spreader out with strength into safe heaven currencies. We want to buy JPY against USD, GBP, and commodity pairs and we chose GBP for now because of the good retracemnet level. Also, we think GBP is about to have more risk off sentiment coming from Wednesday’s triggering of article 50.
- The catalyst was the general risk off sentiment and the possible price in for the upcoming triggering of article 50 which we think will cause another panic sell. We jumped in at a good level because we have PP level @ 138.78, 100 EMA hourly @ 138.87, 38% hourly Fib at 138.78, 15 mins 78% fib @ 138.80. We got in at 138.70.
- The existing sentiment is a risk off sentiment all the way with Asian and European equities in reds.
- The game plan is to scalp in 15 minutes for 30 - 50 pips if the first entry works, target at 138.10. If our second entry got in at 139.09 then the game plan is to hold it until trig erring of article 50 on Wednesday and tries to get out of our first entry at BE if we have not yet got stopped out. So the reason to enter this trade is the same but one is only for short-term scalping while the other is for trading into the risk event.
- The risk is large swing of retracemnet and that’s why we’re willing to take the risk of stop out in the first entry with smaller stop loss.
- Yes because the daily PP level is in a good concurrent area and we’re testing the hourly gap now.
@ 138.70 - a bit early as 4H support & daily pivot PP all at 138.77, 100EMA hourly at 138.85, another 4H resistance at 138.96, 15 mins 50% - 60% fib @ 138.54 - 138.65.
sl @ 139.13 - 0% + 10
p @ 138.10
add @ 139.09
sl @ 140.60
P @ 136.50
we had a large retracement to almost stop us out in our first entry, now we’re still stalling between 139 - 138.80
The sentimental reason to get in GBP/JPY short is still in place as the equities are still down and Japanese Yen and other safe heaven currencies are still strong.
GBP was rallied due to USD weakness and the question is how much buyers are invested to buy GBP now ahead of Wednesday article 50? Not much.
However, we might get stopped out by the large swing of GB/USD intradya trader.
We’ll see how this pair reacts but most likely i’ll keep holding it unless it hits 139.09 which my hourly trade will get filled and our intraday trade will get stopped out for today.
we got hit at 139.09 and loss our first entry and second entry is in now.
we’ll wait to see how the market reacts to the upcoming triggering of article 50.
For the first entry, i was holding it because market couldn’t break above 139 solidly and my market sentiment was still buying JPY and selling GBP - and it’s still the same.
So perhaps what i could have done is to get an early exit if the pair went through 50% - 60% and continues to go higher, i should find a chance to get out at BE or cut my loss because chances are the thing is going to touch 0% and break above as the cycle of downtrend has completed without retracement.
I got out of GBP/JPY trade in half at 100% fib level and moved my sl to 138.23. This trade is risk free now.
I will trail with swing high and low in hourly chart.