- The recent risk off sentiment due to failed healthcare bill and the doubt over Donald Trump’s future policies, the bearish commodities, the upcoming triggering of article 50 all gave safe heaven currencies a great boost. We think the risk off sentiment should resume and still dominate the market for this week. We’re having some retracement in the Asian sessions and this will be a good opportunity to sell again at good levels. We’re thinking to buy JPY because of the safe heaven status, and also EUR as one of the safe heaven currencies but also EUR had enjoy some strong sentiment recently due to ECB members’ hawkish comments, the positive PMIs last week and the recent positive German Ifo and the won of Angela Mearkel’s party.
- The catalyst was the Donald Trump’s failed healthcare bill, the upcoming triggering of article 50 which should all create another round of risk sentiment. We’re looking to sell USD/JPY, AUD/JPY and/or buy EUR/USD & EUR/AUD.
- The current sentiment is positive from Asian session, we need to wait for the European equities to turn red then we can jump in and sell at good levels. For AUD/JPY & EUR/AUD, we also need to check the commodities especially copper, zinc and iron ore before we jump in.
- The plan is to sell USD/JPY & AUD/JPY or buy EUR/USD & EUR/AUD at a good retracement level while the European equities turn red with the sign of risk off sentiment coming in.
- The risk is to go against the risk sentiment as we might have a large retracement day or the risk sentiment might simply changes to positive for the day. Therefore, we must wait for European equities to turn red before we even consider taking any trades.
- Yes but only if the risk off sentiment picks up again and we are at good retracment level to short.
****we might completely reverse our game plan if the market continues to be risk on sentiment while WTI, Copper, and Iron ore all go up and Gold and U.S 10 years bond go down, then we will actually reverse all our positions to buy USD/JPY & AUD/JPY.
We will stay out of EUR as EUR has more internal strength than JPY.
USD/JPY levels
4H/Daily S/R & PP @ 110.60 - 110.80
4H/Daily S/R & R2 & 100 hourly EMA @ 111.10
Weekly Support & S1 @ 109.88 - 110.10
EUR/USD levels
PP @ 1.0862
R1 & 4H/Daily S/R @ 1.0910 - 1.0920
Weekly S/R & S1 @ 100 hourly EMA @ 1.0820 - 1.0835
S2 & 4H/Daily S/R @ 1.0775 - 1.0790
AUD/JPY levels
R1 & 100 hourly EMA & 4H/Daily S/R @ 84.75 - 84.85
PP & Weekly S/R @ 84.35 - 84.40
4H/Daily S/R @ 84.07
S1 @ 83.88
S2 @ 83.40
4H/Daily S/R @ 83.61
EUR/AUD levels
PP & 4H/Daily S/R @ 1.4250 - 1.4275
S1 & 4H/Daily S/R & 100 EMA @ 1.4175-1.4190
Weekly S/R & S2 @ 1.4125 -1.4135
R1 @ 1.4325
R2 & 4H/Daily S/R @ 1.4368-1.4385
short USD/JPY @
110.66 - 4H/Daily S/R & PP
SL @ 110.88 - 4H/Daily S/R @ 110.79
P @ 110.16
50%-60% fib & broke trend line & MACD divergence
first lot to try as we’re earlier than the London opens.
long EUR/USD @
1.0854 - Weekly S/R & S1 @ 100 hourly EMA @ 1.0820 - 1.0835
sl @ 1.0820
EUR/JPY is a good buy if the risk sentiment continues to be on with the month end inflow to support EUR and all the previous reason to long EUR.
EUR/JPY Levels
R1 & 4H/Daily S/R @ 120.40-120.50
PP @ 4H/Daily S/R & 100 EMA @ 120 - 120.10
S1 & 4H/Daily S/R @ 119.65-119.75
weekly S/R & 4H/Daily S/R @ 119.45
S 2 & 4H/Daily S/R @ 119.15-119.25
The current equities are still in green with WTI and copper zinc all up and Gold & bond all down.
If the risk sentiment continues to be on, we will wrap up all the JPY long trade at 100% fib only.
We will also looking to long EUR/JPY at good level.
I got out of USD/JPY & EUR/USD trade with small profits because the European equities are in green and all signs are showing a risk on sentiment for now, not a good set up to short JPY.
I’m looking to buy AUD/JPY & EUR/JPY instead.
AUD/JPY levels
R1 & 100 hourly EMA & 4H/Daily S/R @ 84.75 - 84.85
PP & Weekly S/R @ 84.35 - 84.40
4H/Daily S/R @ 84.07
S1 @ 83.88
S2 @ 83.40
4H/Daily S/R @ 83.61
EUR/JPY Levels
R1 & 4H/Daily S/R @ 120.40-120.50
PP & 4H/Daily S/R & 100 EMA @ 120 - 120.10
S1 & 4H/Daily S/R @ 119.65-119.75
weekly S/R & 4H/Daily S/R @ 119.45
S 2 & 4H/Daily S/R @ 119.15-119.25
we got in AUD/JPY @ 84.07 and got out when 5 mins candle closed below uptrend, see to be having trouble breaking above 100% and as mentioned, this is a short-term scalping the risk sentiment so only in for few pips.
we got in EUR/JPY @ 120.12 but soon got out at 120.08 because it broke down the 1 mins trend line, not really a good trade to being with as the ranges are too tight.
We got in EUR/JPY again with 15 mins chart @ 119.97 because of PP level of 120 and whole number, 4H/Daily S/R and also 50% fib.
SL at 119.75 which is below another 4H/Daily support at 119.87 and below 60% zone.
we did not wait for the trend line breaks as we’re pretty confident in the strength of EUR and the market is still in a risk on sentiment with European equity are still in green.
With lack of economic data, we thought the trade might keep going with the sentiment.
****we did not wait for the Trend breakout to get in, and that’s why we’re under water now.
Remember to always wait for Trend breakout as you will have a much better momentum to ride the trend.
If the trade DOES NOT react to 50%-60% zone and the important S/R with trend breakout, instead, it keeps retrace to 75%, then we are NOT interested in this trade anymore as the retracement is too deep.
Put pending LONG EUR/USD
@ 1.0835 - weekly S/R, 50% fib hourly zone
SL @ 1.0750 - 0%
Possible early exit @ 1.0790 -check to see how does it break below 1.08 level
Target @ 1.0997
EUR/USD levels
PP @ 1.0862
R1 & 4H/Daily S/R @ 1.0910 - 1.0920
Weekly S/R & S1 @ 100 hourly EMA @ 1.0820 - 1.0835
S2 & 4H/Daily S/R @ 1.0775 - 1.0790
i entered EUR/USD long because the market sentiment has shifted to a more risk off tone so no more safe heaven pairs.
On the other hand, the EUR/USD still has a valid reason for entry as EUR still is very strong from the positive ECB sentiment, German Ifo and German election won.
USD on the other hand still suffers from last Friday’s healthcare bill flop.
in 15 mins chart, we have a double bottom at 50-60% fib zone and a MACD divergence showing up now.
We set SL at 78% because if retrace that low, we don’t want it anymore.
Will re-enter if all fundamental reasons are still in check and we have another breakout of the trend.
The best level is at 1.0820 - 1.0835 so we will re-enter here.
SL at 1.0790.
Add at 1.0835.
i got out of EUR/USD 15 mins chart because I’m not going to monitor it anymore, instead, i put pending at hourly chart to have better room to let it work out.
long eur/usd
@ 1.0833
sl @ 1.0750
p @ 1.1000
our EUR/USD hourly is under water now and touched the 78% fib level.
The reason for entry is still valid as we still think EUR should enjoy the strong sentiment for this week as the ECB hawkish stance, the recent positive datas, the won for Dutch election, German regional election and French presidential debate.
On the other hand, USD has no further catalysts to push it higher as Fed comments have been the same recently and market is still expecting a more hawkish statement from Fed members.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump has once again become the biggest negative senitment with the flop in healthcare bill and now the possible quarrel within his own party.
The uncertainty is still high for USD and we think the recent buying is only temporary for profit taking.
we got out when we heard Squawk reporting that ECB had commented on March statement and that the market has over read the statement.
This was a dovish statement from ECB as the market was previously bullish in EUR because of the rate hike anticipation.
Now ECB basically gave out this dovish talk and EUR/USD drop 30 pips right away.
We jumped in with a new trade and also exit this existing trade with a loss.
Looking back this was never a good trade to take because i simply follow Chris and not based on my own conviction.
I trade this trade which was a type 1 trade as the sentiment for strong EUR and weak USD has already gone by.
Furthermore, i traded the sentiment with Swing position in hourly, there wasn’t any new catalyst that was coming up to help this trade.
So in reality, this is a type 1 trade with low conviction.
And i should have just trade with 5 mins or 15 mins which i did and got out with a won yesterday.
So i should never really trade this hourly Swing trade position because i do not have a strong WHY.
Furthermore, i also messed up with the management as I should have put SL at 78% which i could have loss a bit only.