GBP/USD levels
weekly 60% and s/r @ 1.2742
weekly 50% and s/r & daily 100EMA & R1 & 100 houy EMA @ 1.2478 - 1.2500
R2 & 4h/daily s/r @ 1.2525-1.2535
PP & 4H/daily s/r @ 1.2425
S1 & 4h/daily s/r @ 1.2380
S2 @ 1.2325
weekly 38% and s/r @ 1.2170
short GBP/USD
@ 1.2496
HARD SL @ 1.2625
SOFT SL @ 1.2565
P @ 1.2375 OR 1.2229
my trade got filled @ 1.2496 as planed by a sudden move up of GBP/USD due to dollar weakness by Donald Trump’s comments on punishing currency manipulators.
However, we still had the positive final GDP today and USD overall is still well supported with more Fed members being hawkish this week. Meanwhile, the event to come is the article 50 and the comments on the details which we expect to drag GBP down with another round of selling.
Because of the Current Account & Final GDP q/q are coming up, and we have a clear pattern with swing high/low, i’m tightening the SL at previous Swing High at 1.2518.
- The UK article 50 was triggered yesterday and now it’s officially for the divorce to begin. There are still 2 years of negotiation but now the politics will play into the big hand. We think there will be more volatility to the downside for UK leading to more and more details as we already know that EU is not going to really favour too much for UK because it will set a bad example for EU members to leave EU zone, therefore, the baseline fundamentals are that UK is not going to get too much positive sentiment from this event. The risk is that the drop of GBP has caused UK inflation to shoot up and therefore the inflation is now in a very high position. If that’s the case, BOE might really have to raise the interest to battle that. But to mitigate it, Fed also is looking to raise interest rate twice minimum and 3 or 4 possible. The difference is that the U.S interest rate hike has an economic support while UK will only use that to combat with inflation. Therefore, we think sentimentally and fundamentally, USD is still much favourable over GBP. We’re thinking of taking this position as a swing base over the next few days if we get filled.
- The catalyst was the article 50 and there are more to come with this event which should pressure GBP/USD to the downside.
- The current sentiment is an USD recovery but also GBP recovered well. We’re trading into a future risk event so must wait to enter at a good level.
- The game plan is to trade with a retracement in GBP/USD to short and ride the future risk event of EU separation to crate more GBP downside pressure.
- The risk is the very hawkish comment of BOE which will reverse GBP/USD to the upside, but we think the possibility is low for BOE to raise interest rate as the first 30 days is best to wait and see as UK just signed the article 50 and is about to face the negotiation. The other risk will be USD negative sentiment and the most notable one will be another Donald Trump flop, which is completely unpredictable. Therefore, we can’t really predict or prevent it, we can only make sure we have large stop loss to survive that kind of event.
- yes this is a good trade but must enter at a good level with enough SL room
GBP/USD levels
weekly 60% and s/r @ 1.2742
weekly 50% and s/r & daily 100EMA & R1 & 100 houy EMA @ 1.2478 - 1.2500
R2 & 4h/daily s/r @ 1.2525-1.2535
PP & 4H/daily s/r @ 1.2425
S1 & 4h/daily s/r @ 1.2380
S2 @ 1.2325
weekly 38% and s/r @ 1.2170
short GBP/USD
@ 1.2496
HARD SL @ 1.2625
SOFT SL @ 1.2565
P @ 1.2375 OR 1.2229
my trade got filled @ 1.2496 as planed by a sudden move up of GBP/USD due to dollar weakness by Donald Trump’s comments on punishing currency manipulators.
However, we still had the positive final GDP today and USD overall is still well supported with more Fed members being hawkish this week. Meanwhile, the event to come is the article 50 and the comments on the details which we expect to drag GBP down with another round of selling.
Because of the Current Account & Final GDP q/q are coming up, and we have a clear pattern with swing high/low, i’m tightening the SL at previous Swing High at 1.2518.