Fundamentally & sentimentally, we still think strong currencies are USD, JPY, AUD & NZD
and weak currencies are GBP & CAD.
Futures market the buyings are in AUD, CAD, JPY, USD
and selling is in GBP, EUR, CHF
while NZD is neutral for now.
Our current orders of SHORT EUR/USD, LONG AUD/NZD, SHORT GBP/JPY
are all still in play.
EUR/USD we do want to get out because we don’t have new catalyst to see EUR going lower, however, we do have catalyst to see USD going lower. Although the future market is placing a short in EUR and LONG in USD, we think it’s better to get out now as we have risk of reversing and little chance of continuing to go down. We have already tighten our SL at 1.1200 just above 200 EMA. We can still hold it or tighten up SL further to 1.1175 which is at the 200 EMA and above today’s pivot R2.
EUR/USD change SL to 1.1175
AUD/NZD is in a range bound because market is awaiting for NZD rate decision but the risk on sentiment has helped both AUD & NZD while the business confidence from AUD has decreased the strength a bit. We’re in a continuous uptrend and our 6th green daily candle day. We like to again tighten our SL to yesterday’s low - 10 pips at 1.0672 and be fine if we wrap this trade up before the NZD decision.
AUD/NZD change SL to 1.0672
GBP/JPY has a great down day because the worse fundamental data from GBP and good sentiment from JPY; now we’d expect this to go on for a long time unless BOJ introduces any new easing measure, otherwise we don’t see any possibility of the reversal fundamentally and sentimentally.
We’re keeping our SL as is and is looking to add on if we can hit 130.
Other pairs that we’re looking at are
LONG
USD/CAD, AUD/CAD, NZD/CAD,
SHORT
GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, CAD/JPY, GBP/USD
especially GBP/NZD as the catalyst of RBNZ rate decision is coming and NZD/CAD because the crude oil inventory is coming.
As long as we have technical confirmation then we’ll looking to enter in daily or if we have new catalyst during our session to session.
- We had a retrace today from USD because of the disappointed productivity data, wholesale inventories and Atlanta FED GDP forecast to decrease, however, it might as well be a profit taking from last week strong NFP. Regardless of the weak datas today, we still place strong fundamental and sentimental in USD. The risk is of course if September the FED does not raise rate, however, it is a very short-term view because even if Sep is a non-event, FED is still going to raise rate and US is still the only major currency with the possibility of rate hike.
- CAD has another disappointed housing data, alone with Monday’s worse building permit, last Friday’s worst job data, and as noted that Real estate is a very important sector in Canada, meanwhile the low WTI and weak global demand for oil does not help CAD either. We place CAD as very weak fundamentally and sentimentally and are looking for opportunity to short if the API and/or crude oil inventory today and tomorrow are a miss and WTI continues to trade under $40 per barrel. We’re now in a short-term retrace for WTI. The risk is the rumour of OPEC meeting of restrain oil output in September, but of course we’ll have to see if it’s just a rumour or not.
- JPY gained strength today because the weak USD and worse than expected UK manufacturing data. As mentioned, JPY is still very strong sentimentally and as long as the global risk sentiment is off, we can expect to see JPY picks up its strength again. It is generally not a currency we’ll go against with in mid to long term.
- NZD is going to have rate decision tomorrow and now market is pretty much indecisive and go with the flow, no smart money will be in this currency now, it’s a wait and see.
- AUD had worse business confidence yesterday but generally still a strong pair due to risk on sentiment especially the S & P is making another new fresh high again. This risk on sentiment also helps NZD and as mentioned, if the rate cut is as expected tomorrow, we will expect a strong demand into NZD afterward.
- GBP is by far the worst currency, the new rate cut last week and unexpected expansion of QE, today’s worse than expiated manufacturing data all sank the GBP to bottom. We’re very negative fundamentally and sentimentally toward this currency and will seek any opportunity to sell it.
- EUR is neutral to bullish in sentiment due to the weakness of GBP and business has to go on within Europe, this will help EURO a lot although fundamentally it is still a very weak currency, but now it’s not a good time to sell as long as GBP continues its weakness.
- CHF is also neutral to bullish due to safe heaven status and is in the same story as EUR, but it has more uncertainty due to SNB unexpected intervention from time to time.
Fundamentally & sentimentally, we still think strong currencies are USD, JPY, AUD & NZD
and weak currencies are GBP & CAD.
Futures market the buyings are in AUD, CAD, JPY, USD
and selling is in GBP, EUR, CHF
while NZD is neutral for now.
Our current orders of SHORT EUR/USD, LONG AUD/NZD, SHORT GBP/JPY
are all still in play.
EUR/USD we do want to get out because we don’t have new catalyst to see EUR going lower, however, we do have catalyst to see USD going lower. Although the future market is placing a short in EUR and LONG in USD, we think it’s better to get out now as we have risk of reversing and little chance of continuing to go down. We have already tighten our SL at 1.1200 just above 200 EMA. We can still hold it or tighten up SL further to 1.1175 which is at the 200 EMA and above today’s pivot R2.
EUR/USD change SL to 1.1175
AUD/NZD is in a range bound because market is awaiting for NZD rate decision but the risk on sentiment has helped both AUD & NZD while the business confidence from AUD has decreased the strength a bit. We’re in a continuous uptrend and our 6th green daily candle day. We like to again tighten our SL to yesterday’s low - 10 pips at 1.0672 and be fine if we wrap this trade up before the NZD decision.
AUD/NZD change SL to 1.0672
GBP/JPY has a great down day because the worse fundamental data from GBP and good sentiment from JPY; now we’d expect this to go on for a long time unless BOJ introduces any new easing measure, otherwise we don’t see any possibility of the reversal fundamentally and sentimentally.
We’re keeping our SL as is and is looking to add on if we can hit 130.
Other pairs that we’re looking at are
LONG
USD/CAD, AUD/CAD, NZD/CAD,
SHORT
GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, CAD/JPY, GBP/USD
especially GBP/NZD as the catalyst of RBNZ rate decision is coming and NZD/CAD because the crude oil inventory is coming.
As long as we have technical confirmation then we’ll looking to enter in daily or if we have new catalyst during our session to session.