Today was an extremely quiet market with lots of action in NY sessions, but first, i was so busy…fixing my computer!!!
I had problems since London session with my trading server, and spent 2 hours to cha with support, fixed here and there, and finally had to reinstall everything!
The good part is that now everything is running smooth.
Back then, i never understood the importance of equipments, everyday I was just so nervous and impatient to trade - because the fear of missing the action!
So every time when things went wrong, such as losing internet, power outage, or simply my dog was barking…all got me really mad.
Slowly, i realized that trading is just like any other business, you're always going to have problems and issues during the operation of your business, the key is always patiently solve the problems and learn from your mistakes.
So although i spent hours to fix my equipments, i was completely calm, listened to my audio book at the same time and just slowly fixed up my computer.
And guess what? I didn’t miss any trades anyway. But that’s why i always have more than 1 computer in case for emergency.
The key is to always prepare for the unprepared, and the more you fail, the more you learn.
We had few ideas to trade today but none of them really worked out.
We place a AUD/NZD short because of the NZD bullish sentiment as RBNZ overly stated their concern for housing bubbles, which signals their stance on the next interest rate decision, which they probably going to hold - and if so, NZD will be very attractive to buy for traders and investors as the high interest rate currency.
AUD on the other hand was suffering the political event, China reduced its exchange rate, S&P downgraded and the high possibility of further cut for their interest rate.
And on top of that, these 2 currencies are both risk on currency so should the risk sentiment shifts, we’ll still be protected as they tend to move together.
Anyway, we were waiting for a pullback and did not get it as NZD continues to go higher.
Meanwhile, we’re still holding our AUD/JPY trade as we’re more bearish bias toward AUD and we also moved our EUR/USD trade to BE before the NFP event to protect us. (and we got stopped out at BE for EUR/USD later on after the NFP)
Then finally the big event NFP came out as large than expected, we jumped in with GBP/USD short, it went in our favour with almost 40 pips - but i did not take it nor did I move my SL to BE
Normally in scalping I’ll just grab 30 pips and wrap up, and now thinking about it, maybe that’s what i should have done.
But my view is that USD has such good datas, and although people are critical about the data being not good enough, however, USD is still a fundamentally strong currency especially versus the GBP
Moreover, it’s Friday and I highly doubt any traders will want to hold GBP over the weekend, it’s just so much uncertainty surrounding the GBP.
And that’s why i was expected it to drop further at least below 1.29.
But then I’m stuck for now, and will have to see what’s gonna happen in the next few hours before closing.
Anyway, the lesson is that there are always many different ways to trade, as long as you have enough reasons and conviction for you trade, then it’s perfectly fine to do whatever you like - you’ll learn more about yourself throughout your trading carer and there is really no right and wrong.
If I hold this trade today and lose, that will be 1% loss which is completely fine
If I get out with 1/3 of profit target and the trade keeps going, even though I make money, but that will be a losing trade because i’m creating a habit of second-guess my own analysis just because of the price action and emotions.
ok, i’ll update it during the weekend for my trade result.
Today was another quiet session, especially the London session, but this is just the peace before the storm as the NFP is coming tomorrow!!! Hopefully I’ll have a good trade before the weekend, or a bad trade with a sad weekend lol
The global sentiment has picking up a bit and we see our previous commodity trades all going lower against YEN, the thing is that you just never know how the market is going to react to certain events. Honestly I felt that people have already forgotten everything about Brexit beside Britain people.
Our current trade AUD/JPY and EUR/USD is still in, but because of the change of sentiment, I have moved the SL of AUD/JPY closed to 76.50. We have a double top in hourly chart around 76.25, so honestly if that holds, then i’m fine, if that doesn’t hold, then i might as well get out with less loss.
Here is really the core element of trading, you can only control what you know and what you can.
So many people get into this market with a hope to discover their holy grail systems, and just look around you to see how many people are selling their systems, signals, EA….etc
But yet, majority of traders still lose money within 1-3 years.
Nowadays I never get any impression from traders’ profits anymore, I’ll be impressed if I meet traders who are consistently making profit year by year, no matter how large or small, that is a winning trader.
So anyway, we’re still hold our 2 trades and although i have a USD trade, but my stoploss is almost 300 pips away, so i’m not worrying about the NFP. Honestly my bias is still favour in USD no matter what the data says, if we look at things globally, what other countries do yo have faith to bet on? It is still the old Uncle Sam.
We have a scraping trade today in GBP/USD and another mistake in NZD/USD
Again, like i mentioned last time, if you can eliminate the human mistake of a trader, then you’re on your way to become a winning trader.
Honestly, I did have better excuse for this mistake, i was prepared fully, but the thing is most data if you have large numbers, that means positive, and small numbers mean negative.
Such as CPI, Non-Farm payroll, Trade balance etc
So we always get used to see large number and react quickly to positive direction in our mind.
But then, sometimes you have datas such as today’s initial jobless claim.
Then of course, the more people claim unemployment, the less attractive the whole economy is for that country.
So at this instance, the larger the number, the more negative it is - and this is where i always made mistake!
I accidentally got in the wrong pair in NZD/USD and immediately get out, then got in GPB/USD
it went down 20 pips but not good enough as the data was positively surprise, however, after almost an hour before Wall Street opens, we decided to just get out at BE.
The reason is because i’m really clueless to the intraday movement of GBP/USD nowadays, the range are just so large, and I just don’t know what kind of events will drive this pair further downside or give it enough retracement.
On top of that, the whole sentiment is turning positive as equity markets were all doing well.
So we decided to get out for safety.
and hours later, it actually went down to our target.
Honestly, no matter how long I’ve been in this market, everytime I still felt a bit frustrated when things like this happened.
And that’s why it’s so important to have a trading journal, because you want to know exactly the reason s you get in and get out - so no matter what happened after, if you have followed you plan, take proper risk, manage the trade logically, then it is a good trade regardless of the result
And this is perhaps the hardest part of trading.
Yes it always comes back to the trading psychology!
ok hope we’ll have more action tomorrow.
When I was young, Japan was always our favourite vacation destination. It was only hours flight from my home town Taiwan, with delicious Japanese foods, great shopping districts, entertainment, natural scenes, hot springs and etc….
But perhaps the most impressive part has always been the people. Unlike other asians, they are the most hardworking, cultural, advanced, polite and just so different overall than the rest of us back then.
Now after I got into trading years ago, I really had a whole new prospective for Japan.
They’re still the country with delicious foods, great hot springs and shopping district, but moreover, they’re really a country with strong backbone, high spirit of nationalist, and hard rock attitudes of winners.
Yes, the safe heaven currency, regardless of their debt, regardless of the deflations, regardless of the earthquakes, lack of resources…etc
Japan is the safe heaven currency because of the people.
The global risk off sentiment continues today, and will probably continue for quiet some time.
There weren’t any significant datas today, and the global sentiment is still the same with JPY highly bought.
I placed few pending orders to sell commodity currencies against JPY, with a very large stoploss as this is more a techinical retrace point with fundamental view, i tend to put a large stoploss because i don’t trust technical too much - which is ironic since I was all about “technical trading’” before...
The FOMC minute might be another event to trade, but I probably not going to be there because i want to go out and enjoy the nice weather today - always schedule trading mourned your life - not the other way around. What’s the point of making money but working 24/7?
The only commodity pair we’re in now is AUD/JPY with large SL and profit target, so not to worry about it.
I’m cancelling all other pending orders except my GBP/USD as the FOMC meeting minutes might give me a chance to be filled at retrace, again, large stoploss for this kind of technical point entry.
The only daytrade i had today was out of expectation, for US manufacturing data.
Since FOMC minutes is coming out, i wasn’t prepared to trade, but only planned to jump in if the result is a surprise. If negative, sell USD/JPY and if positive, sell GBP/USD
the result was a positive surprise, so i got in GBP/USD
But the pair did not react and actually went against me for 10 pips, again, when scalping, I tend to be very careful and senstive for the price action because if market is not reacting to my plan, i always get out right away.
Especially GBP/USD is already in a oversold area and now everything is a bit indecisive, trades want to short but are waiting for retrace, other traders are waiting to buy but want it to fall further before they do.
It finally went down 10 pips and we moved our SL to 30 pips, then at 30 pips profit we took half off, was expecting it to touch 1.2850 but then it went up to test 1.29 and then further to stop us out at BE.
So that’s the only trade we have, plus AUD/JPY is still in.
Hope FOMC minute can give me a nice GBP/USD entry.
short at 75.08
SL at 77
add on at 77
further SL at 79
large 200 pips stoploss with 2 entries to scale in
so far 80 pips against us
short at 1.2915
took half at 1.2881
the other half BE
Hope everyone had a good July 4th yesterday, I certainly did, especially when it’s not a holiday in Canada.
I had a good time to enjoy a nice day out with Erica, it’s always lovely to go out when it’s not holidays, and always stay in when the holidays come.
I started my first trade today with AUD data, and as expected, it was a trade i should not have taken.
Few reasons, it was not in my regular trading hours which i normally don’t trade Asia session, second, I just had a fantastic meal and felt so sleepy, and guess what? I looked at the wrong data...
So yeah, that was what happened to my first trade after nice holidays and a nice meal, my brain was not sharp enough and I looked at the wrong datas.
It’s so critical to understand that at the end of the day, a winning trader does not have any magic power or strategy, nor are they more intelligent, or have some sort of “holy grail” that people don’t know, the truth is that everything in the financial market nowadays are completely transparent, free and fast to absorb for everyone.
The real difference between the winning trader and losing trader is that winning trader always try the his/her best to reduce the human errors.
And that human errors often lie on the psychological aspect which is the risk management of the trade, and the attitude.
The error occurs when you’re not careful, when you’re too cocky, or when you’re not fully prepared, because even when you’re 100% certain and prepared, you’ll always need some margin of safety for your trade.
No one can predict the future, what we can do is merely minimized the impact of the uncertainty.
Anyway, that was what happened, I got out right away when I realized my error but still lost $135...
Then my second trade came hours later with the AUD cash rate, as expected, the rate was on hold.
I was expected a fall for GBP/AUD if the rate is on hold, due to the same bearish sentiment for GBP and relatively strong sentiment for all commodity currencies from last week.
However, i was not sure whether the sentiment would still be strong for commodity pairs, so my goal was to grab few pips only unless there is a huge initial spike down.
At the end, the pair only moved 25 pips in total, and it actually went against me for few pips at the beginning, i knew right away that it’s not acting as my plan, so I took my 10 pips and got out. The pair stalled after that until London session where it resumed the downside.
So i’m back with negative $40 for the day.
Then the rest of the session was really quiet, and I just finished my readings.
Finally another chance came when GBP/USD tested the new historical low again, like last time, I decided to scalp few pips here and there.
This time i did it better, but still not as good as I’d like.
I scalped few times with 1 or 2 pips only, no loss, and no re-entry on the same levels, could have gotten more but that also means i had to monitor the screen deliberately…which i was really tired and just wanted to wrap up the day.
Last trade came with the GDT price for NZD, very simple trade, negative for short and positive for long, again, only aim for 30 pips best.
The result was negative, i shorted, but no reaction, gave it 5 minutes then just got out at breakeven.
The thing about the market is that you always have to treat it like an organism because it is, in fact, composed by many human players inside. So no matter how good your plan is, how convicted you are, you can never be too stubborn.
You have to know when to fold and when to hold - and of course, it’s always easy said then done.
It takes time to practice,, and just like i said, at the end of the day, win or lose is really depended on your trading psychology - or psychology in life in general.
ok hope tomorrow will have a more excited session.
Today is July 4th, the Independence day of US
There are many holidays in the world among different countries, but nothing is as effective as an US holiday. Hack i’ll still trade through Canada day but always take a rest in US holiday.
USA is still, indeed, a superpower!
Really hard to imagine how new this country is.
Anyway, that’s not what i want to talk about, I’d like to talk about the importance of “independence"
As many of you should have known, US fought for its independence back in 1776 and won, and of course, many people died for the birth of the country.
Because the risk for war was so large, many delegates of the 13 colonials were agents the war.
OK, that’s it for the history.
Now, what i find it's interesting and have many relations to do with trading is that, many people jump into this trading market, not for the monetary reward, but for the freedom to be your own boss.
Truth is, a successful doctor, lawyer or corporate managers can just make as much if not more money than any retail traders.
But then why are traders such an attractive occupation for many people?
The answer is the independence. The independence to work around your own schedule, your own house, your own time and if you’re like me, the comfort of wearing your pyjamas to work is just amazing!!!
Being a trader, or a self-employee, means having a control over your life, time, energy and money.
And i think this is really the number one attraction for so many people who want to trade.
Not only that, you get to travel the world, have fun and immerse yourself in different cultures within different countries, and then make money at your hotel.
With the technology of internet, you can really make money everywhere with trading.
However, just like how USA fought its war to gain independence, being an independent trader is a path full of hardships and struggles.
Many people want the reward of independence, but they do not want the risk of losing, the sweat of working, and the fear of uncertainty.
It took me almost 10 years to become profitable and consistent in this market. And I can’t remember how many painful nights/days i had to spend on my own, how much stress i had to deal with, and the loneliness that you cannot share with people because not many people are traders or even understand what you’re doing.
I’m very happy and proud of what I have achieved, but also irritated by how simple and lazy people are, that they’d expect an easy result without much sacrifice.
Of course, on the other hand, I am happy that majority of people are like that in this market, because that’s how 10% of traders make 90% of the profit - out of the fools.
However, I sincere wish you can learn that everything takes hard works and most importantly, it takes sacrifice.
So while you celebrate the great independence day, remember that “independence” is not a human right, it’s something you earned.
This year marked the 10th year of a lot of things in my life; I’m getting married with my 10 years sweetheart, i got into the stock market 10 years ago, I graduated high school and went into the society/reality of life 10 years ago, and I left home to live on my own 10 years ago…etc
Sometimes it’s so amazing to see how much i have grown, from a lazy, unproductive, unsuccessful person with extremely negative attitude toward life, to being taught with so many lessons in life, and finally cultivated my own path of prosperity now.
And all these, from a life of gambling trading, excessive overweight, chronicle sex addicted, heavy smoking and drinking - to a fund manager, a fitness guru (self proclaimed) and a loving husband (soon to be), all comes down to one thing: the desire to change and the sustained motivation to keep me going.
There were so many people that had helped me directly and indirectly; positively and negatively. Because remember, what don’t kill you make you stronger, and in my case, all the doubts, laughers and hatreds have really gotten me very far - to prove how good I could be, and how wrong people were.
But the one thing that really helped me, changed me in all aspect of life - is the knowledge from books.
Reading, is perhaps the most powerful tool known to any mankind.
It certainty changed my life.
The more I read, the smarter I become, the more life puzzles are solved, the more mentors I encounter, the more money I make, more health i have, better relationships in life…etc
All the wonderful things in life can be realized, if you truly understand the power of reading.
….and unfortunately, that was how our education had failed us. Because most people, once out of their last educational institutions, they stop reading.
They do the same thing over and over again, everyday complaint about life, complaint about going no where, and yet, they are being completely ignored to know that the powerful tool to change their life is just a habit of reading.
So, READ, my friend.
Today is same as expected, it’s Friday ahead of long weekend in US and Canada’s has already begun.
Market is very quiet, was looking to enter GBP/JPY when it can retrace to correct level, and that didn’t happen.
Then buying power went in for AUD & NZD, no significant reason, but it seems that market are trying hard to disregard all the turmoil in Brexit. Everything regains, and people are buying high yield currencies of AUD & NZD again.
Next week AUD will have cash rate coming out which expected to be hold, cut possibility is always there but seems we don’t have any new inflation datas to guide us, i’m leaning toward hold.
If so, I think that might be a main trade next week for me to grab some pips. Of course the opposite one will be GBP.
ok have a good weekend/long weekend.