Hope everyone had a good July 4th yesterday, I certainly did, especially when it’s not a holiday in Canada.
I had a good time to enjoy a nice day out with Erica, it’s always lovely to go out when it’s not holidays, and always stay in when the holidays come.
I started my first trade today with AUD data, and as expected, it was a trade i should not have taken.
Few reasons, it was not in my regular trading hours which i normally don’t trade Asia session, second, I just had a fantastic meal and felt so sleepy, and guess what? I looked at the wrong data...
So yeah, that was what happened to my first trade after nice holidays and a nice meal, my brain was not sharp enough and I looked at the wrong datas.
It’s so critical to understand that at the end of the day, a winning trader does not have any magic power or strategy, nor are they more intelligent, or have some sort of “holy grail” that people don’t know, the truth is that everything in the financial market nowadays are completely transparent, free and fast to absorb for everyone.
The real difference between the winning trader and losing trader is that winning trader always try the his/her best to reduce the human errors.
And that human errors often lie on the psychological aspect which is the risk management of the trade, and the attitude.
The error occurs when you’re not careful, when you’re too cocky, or when you’re not fully prepared, because even when you’re 100% certain and prepared, you’ll always need some margin of safety for your trade.
No one can predict the future, what we can do is merely minimized the impact of the uncertainty.
Anyway, that was what happened, I got out right away when I realized my error but still lost $135...
Then my second trade came hours later with the AUD cash rate, as expected, the rate was on hold.
I was expected a fall for GBP/AUD if the rate is on hold, due to the same bearish sentiment for GBP and relatively strong sentiment for all commodity currencies from last week.
However, i was not sure whether the sentiment would still be strong for commodity pairs, so my goal was to grab few pips only unless there is a huge initial spike down.
At the end, the pair only moved 25 pips in total, and it actually went against me for few pips at the beginning, i knew right away that it’s not acting as my plan, so I took my 10 pips and got out. The pair stalled after that until London session where it resumed the downside.
So i’m back with negative $40 for the day.
Then the rest of the session was really quiet, and I just finished my readings.
Finally another chance came when GBP/USD tested the new historical low again, like last time, I decided to scalp few pips here and there.
This time i did it better, but still not as good as I’d like.
I scalped few times with 1 or 2 pips only, no loss, and no re-entry on the same levels, could have gotten more but that also means i had to monitor the screen deliberately…which i was really tired and just wanted to wrap up the day.
Last trade came with the GDT price for NZD, very simple trade, negative for short and positive for long, again, only aim for 30 pips best.
The result was negative, i shorted, but no reaction, gave it 5 minutes then just got out at breakeven.
The thing about the market is that you always have to treat it like an organism because it is, in fact, composed by many human players inside. So no matter how good your plan is, how convicted you are, you can never be too stubborn.
You have to know when to fold and when to hold - and of course, it’s always easy said then done.
It takes time to practice,, and just like i said, at the end of the day, win or lose is really depended on your trading psychology - or psychology in life in general.
ok hope tomorrow will have a more excited session.
Today is July 4th, the Independence day of US
There are many holidays in the world among different countries, but nothing is as effective as an US holiday. Hack i’ll still trade through Canada day but always take a rest in US holiday.
USA is still, indeed, a superpower!
Really hard to imagine how new this country is.
Anyway, that’s not what i want to talk about, I’d like to talk about the importance of “independence"
As many of you should have known, US fought for its independence back in 1776 and won, and of course, many people died for the birth of the country.
Because the risk for war was so large, many delegates of the 13 colonials were agents the war.
OK, that’s it for the history.
Now, what i find it's interesting and have many relations to do with trading is that, many people jump into this trading market, not for the monetary reward, but for the freedom to be your own boss.
Truth is, a successful doctor, lawyer or corporate managers can just make as much if not more money than any retail traders.
But then why are traders such an attractive occupation for many people?
The answer is the independence. The independence to work around your own schedule, your own house, your own time and if you’re like me, the comfort of wearing your pyjamas to work is just amazing!!!
Being a trader, or a self-employee, means having a control over your life, time, energy and money.
And i think this is really the number one attraction for so many people who want to trade.
Not only that, you get to travel the world, have fun and immerse yourself in different cultures within different countries, and then make money at your hotel.
With the technology of internet, you can really make money everywhere with trading.
However, just like how USA fought its war to gain independence, being an independent trader is a path full of hardships and struggles.
Many people want the reward of independence, but they do not want the risk of losing, the sweat of working, and the fear of uncertainty.
It took me almost 10 years to become profitable and consistent in this market. And I can’t remember how many painful nights/days i had to spend on my own, how much stress i had to deal with, and the loneliness that you cannot share with people because not many people are traders or even understand what you’re doing.
I’m very happy and proud of what I have achieved, but also irritated by how simple and lazy people are, that they’d expect an easy result without much sacrifice.
Of course, on the other hand, I am happy that majority of people are like that in this market, because that’s how 10% of traders make 90% of the profit - out of the fools.
However, I sincere wish you can learn that everything takes hard works and most importantly, it takes sacrifice.
So while you celebrate the great independence day, remember that “independence” is not a human right, it’s something you earned.
This year marked the 10th year of a lot of things in my life; I’m getting married with my 10 years sweetheart, i got into the stock market 10 years ago, I graduated high school and went into the society/reality of life 10 years ago, and I left home to live on my own 10 years ago…etc
Sometimes it’s so amazing to see how much i have grown, from a lazy, unproductive, unsuccessful person with extremely negative attitude toward life, to being taught with so many lessons in life, and finally cultivated my own path of prosperity now.
And all these, from a life of gambling trading, excessive overweight, chronicle sex addicted, heavy smoking and drinking - to a fund manager, a fitness guru (self proclaimed) and a loving husband (soon to be), all comes down to one thing: the desire to change and the sustained motivation to keep me going.
There were so many people that had helped me directly and indirectly; positively and negatively. Because remember, what don’t kill you make you stronger, and in my case, all the doubts, laughers and hatreds have really gotten me very far - to prove how good I could be, and how wrong people were.
But the one thing that really helped me, changed me in all aspect of life - is the knowledge from books.
Reading, is perhaps the most powerful tool known to any mankind.
It certainty changed my life.
The more I read, the smarter I become, the more life puzzles are solved, the more mentors I encounter, the more money I make, more health i have, better relationships in life…etc
All the wonderful things in life can be realized, if you truly understand the power of reading.
….and unfortunately, that was how our education had failed us. Because most people, once out of their last educational institutions, they stop reading.
They do the same thing over and over again, everyday complaint about life, complaint about going no where, and yet, they are being completely ignored to know that the powerful tool to change their life is just a habit of reading.
So, READ, my friend.
Today is same as expected, it’s Friday ahead of long weekend in US and Canada’s has already begun.
Market is very quiet, was looking to enter GBP/JPY when it can retrace to correct level, and that didn’t happen.
Then buying power went in for AUD & NZD, no significant reason, but it seems that market are trying hard to disregard all the turmoil in Brexit. Everything regains, and people are buying high yield currencies of AUD & NZD again.
Next week AUD will have cash rate coming out which expected to be hold, cut possibility is always there but seems we don’t have any new inflation datas to guide us, i’m leaning toward hold.
If so, I think that might be a main trade next week for me to grab some pips. Of course the opposite one will be GBP.
ok have a good weekend/long weekend.
Today was another quiet session, prepared few trade ideas for CAD GDP data but the data release did not meet our criteria.
Then i basically just read news and keep eyes & ears open for any news.
Another political showdown in Britain now, and that was pretty much all we had for this week.
Then finally at 11am EST, Carney’s speech had driven GBP & EUR down.
The price dropped more than 100 pips in seconds after the Squawk, it was so unbelievable that not too long ago i was still that novice trader who traded without any instant information...
yes all these information cost money, but if you don’t even have the basic business tools to compete in this market, then what do you really expect?
Information is amazing!
I had the bloomberg TV on as well, and by the time most audiences got the news, that was already 5 minutes later.
Nowadays i don’t trade without info tools.
Anyway, the dovish tone has helped all my 3 trades, however, I made a decision to exit EUR/CHF & GBP/JPY
It’s Thursday, and weekend is coming, i definitely don’t want to hold any CHF or JPY over the weekend.
SNB has already confirmed their intervention, and last time they intervened without any notice….a lot of people went bankrupt.
Another reason is that the selling of GBP is going to push EUR/GBP higher as this is the end of month as well for EUR/GBP month-end rally.
I got out of GBP/JPY with the same reason as well, don’t want to have any jPY position over the weekend, and also don’t want to have 2 short gbp position over weekend.
Then, I got out of GBP/USD half and set the other to BE.
I”m going to trail it down every 100 pips and if nothing happen before Friday, I’m just going to exit everything.
But then after an hour of the speech, I decided to get out the other half.
Again, it’s Thursday and I have no intention to hold anything over weekend. and i don’t think there is any force that going to drive the pair down to 1.3000 from today to tomorrow ( of course i might be wrong)
We also already dropped 250 pips for the day. Most likely it might rebound and stop me out at BE.
So just get out, be flat and have a good rest of the day - until tomorrow.
The lesson I learned is really same as yesterday, everything worked out as planned, however, I could have limited my risk, increased my profit if I only i could have WAITED PATIENTLY with a better level.
Sure, the risk is that I might lose the trade all together, but in a long-term perspective, I’ll have more profit in my pocket, less stresses and better management.
Of course, it’s easier say than done, especially to face my own psychology.
SHORT EUR/CHF from 1.0850
SL @ 1.1025
SHORT GBP/JPY from 137
SL @ 140
SHORT GBP/USD from 1.34
SL @ 1.3750
Fear of missing out has always been the biggest struggle in my life. It reflects in every aspect of what I do, and of course, it shows vivid in my personality.
Wanna some examples? I am….(start with I)
and these are just part of the product of “fear of missing out"
I’m always impatient and chasing for the next “big thing”, because of fear that i’ll miss out the next “big thing"
Same goes for impulsive, inconsistent and then always started the “big thing: but then saw another “big thing” and stopped what i was doing all of a sudden - inadequate
My current positions EUR/CHF, GBP/USD & GBP/JPY all turned against me...
Of course, they’re still far away from my stop loss and I have no problem to hold them because fundamental and sentimental reasons are in my favour.
However, I entered these trade without fresh fundamental & sentimental reasons….
I entered them because i feared that I’d miss the big action since I already missed it in the actual Brexit.
However, I made a very fatal mistake by entering a trade with price action only.
Now, there is nothing wrong to enter a trade with price action, however, understand that if you have entered a trade with price action only, then you will also exit a trade with price action.
Most people buy high and sell low which always end up losing because they enter the trade with Price Action only - completely disregard the fundamental & sentimental side.
The buy high because the price action just made a new high, they sell low because price action just made a new low!
And the end, they always buy at top and sell at bottom, and believe me, i was one of them!
Although during the years, I have completed changed my trading style and nowadays will only enter when there is fundamental or sentimental reason, however, I’m still suck at “waiting patiently”.
Yes the fundamental and sentimental were still favour the bearish outlook for EUR & GBP
Yes eventually EUR & GBP will keep going lower
However, my timing was wrong…
The sentiment of Brexit was LAST WEEK
so….why did I enter trades without any new, fresh fundamental & sentimental reasons?
Was there any new fundamental updated? No
Was there any new sentimental updated? No
The only reason is that price action has retraced….and i got impatient...
Again, it’s fine to enter the trades EUR/CHF GBP/JPY GBP/USD
because i’m in the correct direction of these trades, but my timing was wrong
And if i only entered because of the price action retracement, then I should have taken my profit when i had 100 pips in GBP/JPY GBP/USD and got out of EUR/CHF is i’m in the range bound.
Anyway, new lesson everyday and hopefully I’ll work more on my psychological aspect of trading.
Yes, at the end of the day, it is always the psychology that makes the winning trader! (and losing trader)
SHORT EUR/CHF from 1.0850
SL @ 1.1025
SHORT GBP/JPY from 137
SL @ 140
SHORT GBP/USD from 1.34
SL @ 1.3750
Today was another quiet session, the market did a bit better from the Brexit, but now the whole thing is surrounded by the politicians of Britain and Euro, a bunch of political drama now. It felt that the whole world is trying to move on, or better, completely disregard Britain. No surprise, although i personally love London, Britain has not been a world super power for a very very long time.
I guess the main coverage was due to their financial industry, which are tied to everything i do and all the TV and news articles i paid closed attention to, but once outside trading, i realized no one is even talking about it anymore among my non-trader circles.
Anyway, quiet session and still waiting for the price actions to retract to adequate level.
The whole fundamental picture is still bearish toward GBP and EUR, and bullish toward USD, CHF & JPY.
The trading idea is very simple nowadays, before this chaotic in Brexit settles down, which will probably take few weeks or even longer, every economic datas will be highly disregarded as people will only follow the sentiment of risk on/off
So, whenever you find a good technical level, just sell GBP & EUR and BUY USD JPY CHF
This will probably be the best trades for weeks.
Of course, the risk is the price actions, short-seller covering and central bank intervention, which WILL happen for sure.
The best way to protect yourself is to have wide stoploss, only enter at good level, and be patient, let the market present the opportunity to you.
We have many pending orders but now we’re in
SHORT EUR/CHF from 1.0850
SL @ 1.1025
SHORT GBP/JPY from 137
SL @ 140
I must say that when times like this, the patience is your best trading method….which is always what i’m really bad at.
Today is the 1st Monday after the Brexit - which led to leave. Last Friday was a wild market and unfortunately, i twas too wild for me to trade. I have been burned many times so my instinct was to stay flat, and therefore i did not really trade with the election result. Although i still managed to make $800 profit out of 300 pips and very small lot, but comparing to traders i know who some of them actually double their accounts in one day, i'm really just a beginner!
Anyway, we opened the market Sunday EST with gap down, and once again, i do not see any opportunity to trade because the gap itself is 200 pips, we're almost at 1985 historical low of 1.32. There is no fundamental or sentimental reason for me to enter at this bottom.
I stayed up to watch news, and read article, Goldman Sachs analysis predicted the cable to go as low as 1.32 and ended the year at 1.34 while a lot of banks predicted it to go as low as 1.20-1.25
Nevertheless, with 200 pips gap down and no more force to push cable lower, i have decided to scalp some money at 1.32 handle.
The method is easier, i would wait for the pair to make fresh new low at 1.32 and buy with 10 pips sl and profit, then whenever it dropped another 10 pips, i’ll buy and aim for another 10 pips.
So that was what i did, for 14 times in total.
I also enter at 1.3250 before to grab 10 pips.
At the end, i made some money.
However, I should have just entered at 1.32 and then wait for 20-30 pips profit, and then at 1.3190 and wait for another 20-30 pips
and finally at 1.3150 and wait for another 30 pips.
I’d made the exact same amount or even more with less trades.
However, that will require me to have more patience to wait….and PATIENCE is what i always lack of in my life!!!
So the lesson is really to have enough patience in the market, wait for the market to give you opportunities to trade instead of force trading.
Hope I’ll learn and do better next time.