Today was another usual quiet day and will expect some movement here and there but nothing much until tomorrow’s FED decision in the new york time afternoon.
Yesterday the Chinese datas during Asia session were very positive to support AUD and our trade calls were still to buy USD, CAD, NZD & AUD and sell EUR, CHF & JPY.
The risk event in London session was the CPI datas from GBP, the results were relatively positive across the board and we got in short EUR/GBP but unfortunately the trade did not go too far and reversed during NY session to stop us out.
As mentioned, don’t be surprised by the random movement this week as traders are all coming in from both sides of the market trying to make some money.
There aren’t any more tier one datas but we’ll have Tankan datas from JPY laster in the Asia session that are worth to take a look.
Sentimentally, the WTI had very small movement today with another inverted candle to signal the lack of momentum to push the price higher - however, the overall trend is still up for oil.
Equity markets were once again in green to give us another risk on environment.
Right now our trade calls are still exactly the same, because the market really have no major news or datas and everything is still sentiment driven.
Tomorrow is the big day of the week or the year. Again, if the rate is hike as expected, then we will most likely see a reversal movement into selling USD. And if the rate is NOT hike, then we will see a large selling into USD.
So regardless, USD will most likely to be sold tomorrow.
Then pay attention to the conference as all eyes are on Yellen’s hint for 2017’s policy changes.
-For EUR, it is still pressured from ECB’s easing decision last week, but it will act in accordance with the dollar for this week, especially tomorrow. It’s a good currency to sell but I’ll suggest to move SL to break-even or simply get out before the FED meeting. Then you can get in buying EUR against USD after the rate decision or upon any negative hint in dollar.
-For GBP, the positive CPI datas today did help it, but because of the FED decision tomorrow and the BOE decision this week, we wouldn’t see any large movement in GBP. You can still buy GBP against EUR, JPY & CHF and sell GBP against USD, AUD & NZD. But it’s best to exit or move SL to break-even prior FED and also only take small profit as there wouldn’t be any large movement before the BOE meeting. (I certainty made this mistake today, i should have just move my SL to break-even or get out before i left my trading desk as I was still in small profit)
-For USD, all eyes will be on FED tomorrow but as mentioned, regardless of the decision, USD will most likely be sold off for profit taking (or if a surprise rate unchanged decision comes in). USD is of course still very positive fundamentally and sentimentally, but the best timing is to buy at dips which you either get in between now and then with very tight stop loss and definitely move everything to Break-even before the FED; or you can get in after the FED during the press conference - if you’re going to watch live.
-For AUD & NZD, both are still fundamentally strong, and it will most likely be stronger tomorrow because if USD is sold off then the counter parties AUD & NZD will be bought. Again, trade carefully.
-For JPY & CHF, still weak fundamentally but as a counter parties for USD, we will most likely see some buying power into them at the FED meeting tomorrow.
-For CAD, still a sentimentally strong currency due to the oil market, but as mentioned, watch out for the volatility and only get in CAD when you have a good spot.
Currently, i’m in
AUD/CHF, AUD/JPY, CAD/CHF, CAD/JPY, NZD/JPY, USD/CHF & USD/JPY
(was in NZD/CHF as well but got stopped out at BE)
EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, EUR/USD
(was in EUR/GBP as well but got stopped out with small loss)