Today was another quiet session during London, however the GBP manufacturing production m/m came out as a negative surprise.
Then in NY session we had BOC rate decision came out as expected, unchanged.
The crude oil inventories was a large drawdown today.
Sentimentally, WTI closed down again to below $50, regardless of the draw in the crude oil inventories. The reason is another doubt into the OPEC as non OPEC members have not yet committed to the oil cut except Russia. Furthermore, we saw output rise from U.S Shell producers as they took the advantage for the oil price rise. However, this will most likely be balanced out as both parties know the game too well. The oil price is still expected to rise to $60 in the near term.
We had yet another green day for the equity markets to signal continuos strength into financial market.
-For EUR, investors/traders are waiting for tomorrow’s ECB meeting. Although the bond buying program extension is expected, but investors also expected some signal for future tapering. So it’s 50/50 chance for EUR to go up/down until tomorrow, which will give us more hint.
The Italian PM has officially resigned today.
-For GBP, Parliament members have come out and backed PM May saying they would sign the bill for Brexit regardless of the High Court ruling. This of course gave GBP some negative sentiment as originally some people were expecting a block for Brexit bill from the parliament. If the Brexit is indeed going to happen by 2017, then GBP will be once again in the mercy of the negotiation and the whole thing will be more uncertain.
-For NZD, RBNZ Wheeler said that the cash rate was likely to remain steady for some time. This alone with the recent positive datas from NZD has made it a very strong currency for now.
-For AUD, the GDP datas from last night really played a bearish tone into the currency for now.
-For CAD, the BOC statement today was largely neutral to slight bullish but the rate cut probability is probably off the table for now. The strength of CAD is really depended on the oil market for now.
-For USD, we had neutral sentiment as market is waiting for the FED decision, but as mentioned, fundamentally USD is still the only rising star and the strongest currency for now.
-For JPY & CHF, we don’t have significant news but both currencies are still bearish especially in the recent risk on sentiment.
Right now we’re still bullish for USD as both fundamental & sentential has supported it, the only risk is the FED meeting which is next Wednesday.
We’re also bullish for NZD as the current economic datas and positive comments from central bank all supported this currency, not to mention the high yield benefit of it in the risk on sentiment environment.
We’re also neutral to bullish for CAD as the currency is most likely to remain neutral and the oil market is also most likely to remain neutral to bullish for now.
We’re bearish toward EUR & JPY & CHF because of the ongoing easing policies. EUR might provide some positive sentiment tomorrow if we have any signal for tapering, but overall it’s still very negative in comparison with other bullish currencies.
However, we will stay out of EUR for now.
We’re also bearish for GBP & AUD because of the negative economic datas and the Brexit comments from Parliament members to PM also painted more negativity into GBP.
Now the High Court ruling is still important but if the Parliament members are indeed going to back up the Brexit, then it is going to happen, for real.
We’re looking to buy USD & NZD & CAD
sell GBP, AUD, JPY & CHF.
Today was another quiet session during London, however the GBP manufacturing production m/m came out as a negative surprise.
Then in NY session we had BOC rate decision came out as expected, unchanged.
The crude oil inventories was a large drawdown today.
Sentimentally, WTI closed down again to below $50, regardless of the draw in the crude oil inventories. The reason is another doubt into the OPEC as non OPEC members have not yet committed to the oil cut except Russia. Furthermore, we saw output rise from U.S Shell producers as they took the advantage for the oil price rise. However, this will most likely be balanced out as both parties know the game too well. The oil price is still expected to rise to $60 in the near term.
We had yet another green day for the equity markets to signal continuos strength into financial market.
-For EUR, investors/traders are waiting for tomorrow’s ECB meeting. Although the bond buying program extension is expected, but investors also expected some signal for future tapering. So it’s 50/50 chance for EUR to go up/down until tomorrow, which will give us more hint.
The Italian PM has officially resigned today.
-For GBP, Parliament members have come out and backed PM May saying they would sign the bill for Brexit regardless of the High Court ruling. This of course gave GBP some negative sentiment as originally some people were expecting a block for Brexit bill from the parliament. If the Brexit is indeed going to happen by 2017, then GBP will be once again in the mercy of the negotiation and the whole thing will be more uncertain.
-For NZD, RBNZ Wheeler said that the cash rate was likely to remain steady for some time. This alone with the recent positive datas from NZD has made it a very strong currency for now.
-For AUD, the GDP datas from last night really played a bearish tone into the currency for now.
-For CAD, the BOC statement today was largely neutral to slight bullish but the rate cut probability is probably off the table for now. The strength of CAD is really depended on the oil market for now.
-For USD, we had neutral sentiment as market is waiting for the FED decision, but as mentioned, fundamentally USD is still the only rising star and the strongest currency for now.
-For JPY & CHF, we don’t have significant news but both currencies are still bearish especially in the recent risk on sentiment.
Right now we’re still bullish for USD as both fundamental & sentential has supported it, the only risk is the FED meeting which is next Wednesday.
We’re also bullish for NZD as the current economic datas and positive comments from central bank all supported this currency, not to mention the high yield benefit of it in the risk on sentiment environment.
We’re also neutral to bullish for CAD as the currency is most likely to remain neutral and the oil market is also most likely to remain neutral to bullish for now.
We’re bearish toward EUR & JPY & CHF because of the ongoing easing policies. EUR might provide some positive sentiment tomorrow if we have any signal for tapering, but overall it’s still very negative in comparison with other bullish currencies.
However, we will stay out of EUR for now.
We’re also bearish for GBP & AUD because of the negative economic datas and the Brexit comments from Parliament members to PM also painted more negativity into GBP.
Now the High Court ruling is still important but if the Parliament members are indeed going to back up the Brexit, then it is going to happen, for real.
We’re looking to buy USD & NZD & CAD
sell GBP, AUD, JPY & CHF.