Today was a quite day with no tier one datas or any events throughout the day, the market was mostly in the range bond with continuous of USD weakness until London session finished.
We have few US datas during NY sessions and notably the Philly Fed Manufacturing index which was a very positive surprise, in fact, the best number that we ever had since 1984!!!
Note that the Empire State Manufacturing Index was also a large positive number yesterday.
The Building Permits also increased while unemployment claims increased a bit but still lower than the expectation.
We also had NZD Retail Sales q/q which was lower than expected number but in line with the previous. This was the worst outcome since the 2nd quarter of 2015.
Core Retail was also lower than expected number but better than previous.
NZD Manufacturing PMI also declined to 51.6 which is currently a 2 year low.
There was also an unscheduled press conference by Donald Trump which i did not know or watch, but apparently it had nothing to do with the tax reform or economic plan. However, Trump did mention new executive orders next week to protect the country. White House has already stated that they will issue a new Travel Ban. This of course might cause another volatility into the market but as mentioned, the more time goes the less volatile and more custom that people are used to these executive orders.
Tax Reform plan might also be announced next week.
The equity market finally went down today after previous consecutive days of higher high.
Gold also went up while U.S 10 yrs yields down.
WTI was virtually unchanged.
We have a clear risk off sentiment today.
For EUR
No major updates on the fundamental picture, but EU official says a deal with Greece is possible in March. If that’s the case, the risk sentiment will be lifted for EUR for a while, but soon the French election will once again be the dominant force as we’re month away from it.
French election candidate Fillon’s scandal is still being investigated and will not be dropped as according to the officials.
The only good sentiment for EU now is perhaps the trade deal with Canada that has been officially signed and will be beneficial for both countries.
For USD
We have no major datas tomorrow for US so pretty much all the fundamentals have concluded for this week and things couldn’t be much better fundamentally. Now you have strong inflations, consumptions, manufacturings, labour markets and strong predictions for heated up economy by Fed members and Chair Yellen.
Both fundamental & sentimental picture have been in line completely and there isn’t any roadblock to stop USD.
Technically we will still have support & resistance from buyers and sellers, as that is how the market works.
But for now, USD is a very good currency to buy and will eventually go up even more.
For GBP
For CAD
We have another positive report from newest Iraq data that exports have dropped in line with what was promised.
OPEC also announced the possibility to extend or deepen supply cut at May meeting if oil stocks are still too high.
For AUD
The risk off sentiment today had pressured commodity currencies to the downside especially AUD.
For NZD
The risk off sentiment today had pressured commodity currencies to the downside and the disappointed retail sales data & Manufacturing Index continued to show the weakness in the economy of NZD.
Although things are picking up well for NZD, but overall it is still far from perfect and rate hike is still not going to happen anytime soon.
For JPY
we have sources from investment bankers or former BOJ officials all predicted USD/JPY to reach 120 level. This was not something to surprise as bankers and hedge funds usually talk on the press or interviews, however, these comments came after the meeting between Trump and Abe - and rumour has it that 120 might be an agreeable level for Trump and Abe.
Also, banks and funds tend to act exactly the same way in Japan.
Nevertheless, with the current fundamental weakness and no major and long lasting risk off event, Yen can still go even lower.
For CHF
CHF continues to perform as a reactive currency to the risk sentiment and as mentioned, be careful for the safe heaven inflow from all the geopolitical events.
Today was a quite day with no tier one datas or any events throughout the day, the market was mostly in the range bond with continuous of USD weakness until London session finished.
We have few US datas during NY sessions and notably the Philly Fed Manufacturing index which was a very positive surprise, in fact, the best number that we ever had since 1984!!!
Note that the Empire State Manufacturing Index was also a large positive number yesterday.
The Building Permits also increased while unemployment claims increased a bit but still lower than the expectation.
We also had NZD Retail Sales q/q which was lower than expected number but in line with the previous. This was the worst outcome since the 2nd quarter of 2015.
Core Retail was also lower than expected number but better than previous.
NZD Manufacturing PMI also declined to 51.6 which is currently a 2 year low.
There was also an unscheduled press conference by Donald Trump which i did not know or watch, but apparently it had nothing to do with the tax reform or economic plan. However, Trump did mention new executive orders next week to protect the country. White House has already stated that they will issue a new Travel Ban. This of course might cause another volatility into the market but as mentioned, the more time goes the less volatile and more custom that people are used to these executive orders.
Tax Reform plan might also be announced next week.
The equity market finally went down today after previous consecutive days of higher high.
Gold also went up while U.S 10 yrs yields down.
WTI was virtually unchanged.
We have a clear risk off sentiment today.
For EUR
No major updates on the fundamental picture, but EU official says a deal with Greece is possible in March. If that’s the case, the risk sentiment will be lifted for EUR for a while, but soon the French election will once again be the dominant force as we’re month away from it.
French election candidate Fillon’s scandal is still being investigated and will not be dropped as according to the officials.
The only good sentiment for EU now is perhaps the trade deal with Canada that has been officially signed and will be beneficial for both countries.
For USD
We have no major datas tomorrow for US so pretty much all the fundamentals have concluded for this week and things couldn’t be much better fundamentally. Now you have strong inflations, consumptions, manufacturings, labour markets and strong predictions for heated up economy by Fed members and Chair Yellen.
Both fundamental & sentimental picture have been in line completely and there isn’t any roadblock to stop USD.
Technically we will still have support & resistance from buyers and sellers, as that is how the market works.
But for now, USD is a very good currency to buy and will eventually go up even more.
For GBP
For CAD
We have another positive report from newest Iraq data that exports have dropped in line with what was promised.
OPEC also announced the possibility to extend or deepen supply cut at May meeting if oil stocks are still too high.
For AUD
The risk off sentiment today had pressured commodity currencies to the downside especially AUD.
For NZD
The risk off sentiment today had pressured commodity currencies to the downside and the disappointed retail sales data & Manufacturing Index continued to show the weakness in the economy of NZD.
Although things are picking up well for NZD, but overall it is still far from perfect and rate hike is still not going to happen anytime soon.
For JPY
we have sources from investment bankers or former BOJ officials all predicted USD/JPY to reach 120 level. This was not something to surprise as bankers and hedge funds usually talk on the press or interviews, however, these comments came after the meeting between Trump and Abe - and rumour has it that 120 might be an agreeable level for Trump and Abe.
Also, banks and funds tend to act exactly the same way in Japan.
Nevertheless, with the current fundamental weakness and no major and long lasting risk off event, Yen can still go even lower.
For CHF
CHF continues to perform as a reactive currency to the risk sentiment and as mentioned, be careful for the safe heaven inflow from all the geopolitical events.