Today we started the London session without any tier one datas until the retail sales data from UK which were negative deviation for all 4 data points; retail sales m/m and y/y & core retail sales m/m and y/y.
GPB dropped significantly across all pairs.
The session also started with a risk off sentiment to fuel up safe heaven currencies JPY & CHF. The risk sentiment is off due to uncertainty toward Trump and his administration as they announced new executive orders in regards to Travel Ban is going to come next week, the incident with Flynn and yesterday’s surprise conference.
On top of that the new poll of French election continued to show the lead for Le Pen and the political uncertainty in Eurozone worsen.
The sentiment shifted after NY session and we saw some recovery in USD and commodity currencies although JPY was still the largest bought.
It seems like people are still protecting themselves ahead of the long weekend in case of any sudden negative event - which of course is most likely to come from Donald Trump.
I don’t think the market even react to terrorist events anymore nowadays, it’s all about Donald Trump.
The equity markets were largely red from Asian to European but ended up higher in U.S.
WTI ended up the day virtually unchanged.
For EUR
we actually have more political drama now over the French election and La Pen is still leading the polls. The market also grew more uncertain in regards to the elections, moreover, the Greek debt issue and ECB QE program continued to be a downward pressure for EUR.
For USD
Without any tier one datas, the USD still enjoys the fundamental strength from all the positive datas and hawkish sentiment from Yellen’s testifies this week. However, this was not the case for the price action as USD actually was sold off - and the only explanation is that people are still concerned about Donald Trump and the administration’s agendas to weaken USD.
The President himself is the biggest risk factor.
For GBP
The retail sales datas were negative deviation and now in line with the economists’ prediction back in 2016. Now this currency is reverted back to the fundamental and the depreciation of Sterling since Brexit has now slowly reflected in the UK economy. If things continue like this, we can forget about any possible rate hike from BOE and on the contrary, we should expect possible rate cut which will once again depreciate GBP even further.
For CAD
The weaken USD has helped CAD today. The OPEC positive sentiment and positive Canadian datas previously all contributed to a strong CAD. We also had large positions in CFTC futures market for CAD Long.
Same thing also happened in futures market for oil futures Long.
For AUD & NZD
Commodity currencies AUD & NZD were both suffering from this risk off sentiment. There were no major news in both currencies and they both reacted to the risk sentiment. Both currencies are still strong economically and have much better ground versus other currencies. Both currencies still provide the high yield for carry trades as well.
For JPY & CHF
The 2 biggest winners today were largely benefited by the risk off sentiment especially prior to the long weekend.
There were no fundamental updates and they both acted well in front of the risk off sentiment.
Today we started the London session without any tier one datas until the retail sales data from UK which were negative deviation for all 4 data points; retail sales m/m and y/y & core retail sales m/m and y/y.
GPB dropped significantly across all pairs.
The session also started with a risk off sentiment to fuel up safe heaven currencies JPY & CHF. The risk sentiment is off due to uncertainty toward Trump and his administration as they announced new executive orders in regards to Travel Ban is going to come next week, the incident with Flynn and yesterday’s surprise conference.
On top of that the new poll of French election continued to show the lead for Le Pen and the political uncertainty in Eurozone worsen.
The sentiment shifted after NY session and we saw some recovery in USD and commodity currencies although JPY was still the largest bought.
It seems like people are still protecting themselves ahead of the long weekend in case of any sudden negative event - which of course is most likely to come from Donald Trump.
I don’t think the market even react to terrorist events anymore nowadays, it’s all about Donald Trump.
The equity markets were largely red from Asian to European but ended up higher in U.S.
WTI ended up the day virtually unchanged.
For EUR
we actually have more political drama now over the French election and La Pen is still leading the polls. The market also grew more uncertain in regards to the elections, moreover, the Greek debt issue and ECB QE program continued to be a downward pressure for EUR.
For USD
Without any tier one datas, the USD still enjoys the fundamental strength from all the positive datas and hawkish sentiment from Yellen’s testifies this week. However, this was not the case for the price action as USD actually was sold off - and the only explanation is that people are still concerned about Donald Trump and the administration’s agendas to weaken USD.
The President himself is the biggest risk factor.
For GBP
The retail sales datas were negative deviation and now in line with the economists’ prediction back in 2016. Now this currency is reverted back to the fundamental and the depreciation of Sterling since Brexit has now slowly reflected in the UK economy. If things continue like this, we can forget about any possible rate hike from BOE and on the contrary, we should expect possible rate cut which will once again depreciate GBP even further.
For CAD
The weaken USD has helped CAD today. The OPEC positive sentiment and positive Canadian datas previously all contributed to a strong CAD. We also had large positions in CFTC futures market for CAD Long.
Same thing also happened in futures market for oil futures Long.
For AUD & NZD
Commodity currencies AUD & NZD were both suffering from this risk off sentiment. There were no major news in both currencies and they both reacted to the risk sentiment. Both currencies are still strong economically and have much better ground versus other currencies. Both currencies still provide the high yield for carry trades as well.
For JPY & CHF
The 2 biggest winners today were largely benefited by the risk off sentiment especially prior to the long weekend.
There were no fundamental updates and they both acted well in front of the risk off sentiment.