Today was another light economic calendar day without too much catalysts.
We started the London session with consecutive of Manufacturing & Service PMI from Germany, France and Eurozone which were all largely in line with expectation or better.
We also had the UK Inflation Report Hearing and comments from BOE members.
Basically BOE acknowledged the inflation was caused by currency and that if the wages continue to push inflation higher, their limit of tolerance will be met - meaning they will have to hike the interest rate.
I think this is a very clear indicator for market to see whether BOE is going to hike or not. Basically they will lean toward not hiking for as long as possible, but once the limit of inflation has met (which we don’t really know what that number is), then the inevitable will come.
Then moving on to NY session where we had GDT price from NZD which came out as negative number.
The Flash Manufacturing PMI and Service PMI from U.S were also negative.
Then at the end of NY session we had RBA Lowe spoke again
For EUR
The political catalyst continued to push EUR to the downside. The market is overlooking the positive fundamental datas and the next few weeks will be more volatile for Euro when the French election is coming soon.
For USD
The soft datas today had pushed down dollar a bit, but with lack of tier one datas and sentimental catalyst from Donald Trump, dollar had recovered well from last week and continued to be well supported for now.
For GBP
The neutral stance of GBP is still here with future hike or cut are equally possible. Brexit also had little negative effect for now since it’s already a done deal, unless there is fresh negative/positive sentiment or fundamental datas, GBP is most likely going into the sideway direction.
For CAD
OPEC secretary Barkindo commented today about the compliance of OPEC members, the expectation for further supply cut and demand surge, and that oil price is still far below the targeted price of OPEC.
This of course is a good sentiment for oil price and has continued to support CAD.
For AUD
RBA Lowe said that the central bank would like the economy to grow faster, but cutting rate further will cause housing market to heat up further, and that household debt levels have already gone too high to effect the household consumption, so they cannot cut interest rate.
The Construction Work Done for Q4 was -0.2% versus the expected 0.5%, a big miss. This data will be an input for the next GDP figure that people are expecting to be a positive one from the previous negative one.
For NZD
The GDT price was a negative number today but the forecast was also a negative number so there was no surprise. Overall NZD is still fundamentally well supported versus other weak currencies.
For JPY
The risk on sentiment today had pressured Japanese Yen to the downside. We also had comment from BOJ Kuroda saying they’re ready to ease further if needed to reach the 2% inflation target.
For CHF
No major catalysts and it still remains as a fundamental negative currency.
Today was another light economic calendar day without too much catalysts.
We started the London session with consecutive of Manufacturing & Service PMI from Germany, France and Eurozone which were all largely in line with expectation or better.
We also had the UK Inflation Report Hearing and comments from BOE members.
Basically BOE acknowledged the inflation was caused by currency and that if the wages continue to push inflation higher, their limit of tolerance will be met - meaning they will have to hike the interest rate.
I think this is a very clear indicator for market to see whether BOE is going to hike or not. Basically they will lean toward not hiking for as long as possible, but once the limit of inflation has met (which we don’t really know what that number is), then the inevitable will come.
Then moving on to NY session where we had GDT price from NZD which came out as negative number.
The Flash Manufacturing PMI and Service PMI from U.S were also negative.
Then at the end of NY session we had RBA Lowe spoke again
For EUR
The political catalyst continued to push EUR to the downside. The market is overlooking the positive fundamental datas and the next few weeks will be more volatile for Euro when the French election is coming soon.
For USD
The soft datas today had pushed down dollar a bit, but with lack of tier one datas and sentimental catalyst from Donald Trump, dollar had recovered well from last week and continued to be well supported for now.
For GBP
The neutral stance of GBP is still here with future hike or cut are equally possible. Brexit also had little negative effect for now since it’s already a done deal, unless there is fresh negative/positive sentiment or fundamental datas, GBP is most likely going into the sideway direction.
For CAD
OPEC secretary Barkindo commented today about the compliance of OPEC members, the expectation for further supply cut and demand surge, and that oil price is still far below the targeted price of OPEC.
This of course is a good sentiment for oil price and has continued to support CAD.
For AUD
RBA Lowe said that the central bank would like the economy to grow faster, but cutting rate further will cause housing market to heat up further, and that household debt levels have already gone too high to effect the household consumption, so they cannot cut interest rate.
The Construction Work Done for Q4 was -0.2% versus the expected 0.5%, a big miss. This data will be an input for the next GDP figure that people are expecting to be a positive one from the previous negative one.
For NZD
The GDT price was a negative number today but the forecast was also a negative number so there was no surprise. Overall NZD is still fundamentally well supported versus other weak currencies.
For JPY
The risk on sentiment today had pressured Japanese Yen to the downside. We also had comment from BOJ Kuroda saying they’re ready to ease further if needed to reach the 2% inflation target.
For CHF
No major catalysts and it still remains as a fundamental negative currency.