Today was another quiet day without any tier one datas in London session.
The whole session was trading with the current sentiment which is still negative toward USD and positive toward safe heaven currencies.
However, the general risk sentiment was not off as commodity currencies also enjoyed a good uptrend particularly AUD & NZD.
There wasn’t really any fundamental reason for USD weakness other than lack of catalyst and disappointment over FED minutes.
In NY session, we saw U.S Unemployment Claims came out as negative than previous and expected, but the Unemployment Claims is still way below the historical figures and the job market is still resilient.
Crude Oil Inventories came out as less than expected and previous and that gave some momentum into the oil market where we closed today with higher green candle.
However, it is notable that Crude Inventories had been built up for consecutive 7 weeks already, if things continue like this, it is not a good sign for the oil market.
Finally in Asia session we had RBA Lowe spoke again, and the content of the speech was exactly the same as his last speech. Basically he thought AUD can go lower, but couldn’t say it’s overvalued because if the commodity price continues to go higher then it will justify the higher value of AUD.
He also stated the further rate cut is off the table for now.
For EUR
EUR still follows more on the political sentiment with ups/downs but generally more leaning toward the downside. The fundamental side is still weak due to ECB QE program, the inflations and other economic datas are performing well for this year, but as long as ECB is going to keep the rate low, we still think EUR is a fundamental and sentimental weak currency to short.
For USD
USD had been sold off notably these few days, but there really wasn’t any fundamental catalyst to drag it down or push it up either. As a fundamentally strong currency, our view for USD is still to the upside. The current political uncertainty has also faded out a bit and as soon as the market reverts back to the fundamentals, we should see another buying into USD.
For GBP
GBP had been benefited largely due to the weakness of EUR & USD. As a neutral currency on our watch list, GBP really reacts to the other currencies nowadays as it lacks the catalyst itself. The Brexit effect had also slowly faded out and the currency is in a wait and see mode.
For CAD
The Crude Oil Inventory today was less than expected and it gave oil market some nice pushed up, however, it is notable that Crude Inventories had been up for the consecutive 7 weeks. As mentioned, OPEC is trying hard to cut the output while U.S shale producers are pumping out more. Eventually they will hedge out each other but as for now we do need more catalyst to push the oil price higher. Meanwhile, the disappointed retail sales figures of Canada had been another drag of CAD.
For AUD
The comments from RBA Lowe did not give too much insight, but it did confirm the stance of RBA as they’re confident toward the currency and the economy. Unlike RBNZ, RBA didn’t jawboning their currency either and that leaves a lot of room for AUD to go even higher; as long as the commodity price continues to go high.
For NZD
Without any catalyst to drive NZD, it has reverted back to the fundamental strength and we saw better buying momentum flowed into NZD.
As mentioned, the economic side of NZD had been well performed this year and once the negative sentiment has been removed, we believed NZD will be on the uptrend again.
For JPY
The risk off sentiment and the selling of USD & EUR all helped the safe heaven currencies especially JPY as CHF is still within the Eurozone while JPY is completely out of the political turmoil.
Fundamentally it is still a weak currency but session to session, JPY can be a good buy for intraday.
For CHF
It shares the same benefits as JPY but was not a first choice for safe heaven inflow as the current negative sentiment is largely from the Eurozone - which CHF is part of it geographically.
Today was another quiet day without any tier one datas in London session.
The whole session was trading with the current sentiment which is still negative toward USD and positive toward safe heaven currencies.
However, the general risk sentiment was not off as commodity currencies also enjoyed a good uptrend particularly AUD & NZD.
There wasn’t really any fundamental reason for USD weakness other than lack of catalyst and disappointment over FED minutes.
In NY session, we saw U.S Unemployment Claims came out as negative than previous and expected, but the Unemployment Claims is still way below the historical figures and the job market is still resilient.
Crude Oil Inventories came out as less than expected and previous and that gave some momentum into the oil market where we closed today with higher green candle.
However, it is notable that Crude Inventories had been built up for consecutive 7 weeks already, if things continue like this, it is not a good sign for the oil market.
Finally in Asia session we had RBA Lowe spoke again, and the content of the speech was exactly the same as his last speech. Basically he thought AUD can go lower, but couldn’t say it’s overvalued because if the commodity price continues to go higher then it will justify the higher value of AUD.
He also stated the further rate cut is off the table for now.
For EUR
EUR still follows more on the political sentiment with ups/downs but generally more leaning toward the downside. The fundamental side is still weak due to ECB QE program, the inflations and other economic datas are performing well for this year, but as long as ECB is going to keep the rate low, we still think EUR is a fundamental and sentimental weak currency to short.
For USD
USD had been sold off notably these few days, but there really wasn’t any fundamental catalyst to drag it down or push it up either. As a fundamentally strong currency, our view for USD is still to the upside. The current political uncertainty has also faded out a bit and as soon as the market reverts back to the fundamentals, we should see another buying into USD.
For GBP
GBP had been benefited largely due to the weakness of EUR & USD. As a neutral currency on our watch list, GBP really reacts to the other currencies nowadays as it lacks the catalyst itself. The Brexit effect had also slowly faded out and the currency is in a wait and see mode.
For CAD
The Crude Oil Inventory today was less than expected and it gave oil market some nice pushed up, however, it is notable that Crude Inventories had been up for the consecutive 7 weeks. As mentioned, OPEC is trying hard to cut the output while U.S shale producers are pumping out more. Eventually they will hedge out each other but as for now we do need more catalyst to push the oil price higher. Meanwhile, the disappointed retail sales figures of Canada had been another drag of CAD.
For AUD
The comments from RBA Lowe did not give too much insight, but it did confirm the stance of RBA as they’re confident toward the currency and the economy. Unlike RBNZ, RBA didn’t jawboning their currency either and that leaves a lot of room for AUD to go even higher; as long as the commodity price continues to go high.
For NZD
Without any catalyst to drive NZD, it has reverted back to the fundamental strength and we saw better buying momentum flowed into NZD.
As mentioned, the economic side of NZD had been well performed this year and once the negative sentiment has been removed, we believed NZD will be on the uptrend again.
For JPY
The risk off sentiment and the selling of USD & EUR all helped the safe heaven currencies especially JPY as CHF is still within the Eurozone while JPY is completely out of the political turmoil.
Fundamentally it is still a weak currency but session to session, JPY can be a good buy for intraday.
For CHF
It shares the same benefits as JPY but was not a first choice for safe heaven inflow as the current negative sentiment is largely from the Eurozone - which CHF is part of it geographically.