Today was another usual Monday with no tier one datas in both London and NY sessions.
Market liquidity had been thin, the only tier one data came after Asian session with Inflation expectation q/q from NZD and Cash Rate + RBA Rate statement from AUD.
The Inflation expectation q/q from NZD was positive than last time, which we saw another surge into the already strong currency of NZD.
The cash rate of AUD was as expected, unchanged, the statement also didn’t provide too much insight.
We saw AUD regained some ground from the existing strength, but mostly trading in the range.
Market were mixed today with positive equities in Asian but ended up negative in NY.
For EUR,
Le Pen officially launched her presidential bid, and we saw panic over the political situation for Eurozone, this had pressured EUR and caused inflow into the safe heaven currencies.
For GBP
The Parliamentary debate had finished and now PM May can finally trigger the Brexit. This alone was not a surprise, but it somehow confirmed the fact of Brexit to the investors, now that UK is really facing an unknown future. The uncertainty once again pressed GBP.
We also had BRC sales numbers and was a negative surprise, the weakest sales number since Aug 2016. The could very well be another sign that the inflation has slowly reflected in the consumption.
For USD
Dollar regained some strength over the incident between Trump and Judge, now market has calmed down a bit to realized that Trump is after all not a dictator in the constitutional U.S, there are still many opposing power to curb his executive orders.
For CAD
WTI closed today with a red candle alone with the regained strength of Dollar, these had pressured CAD to the downside for the day.
Oil market now still sends mix signal but as mentioned, the upward direction is more of a certainty. We also have large future positions from Hedge Funds that have been priced in recently.
For AUD
The RBA statement was as expected and the risk factors for AUD are still the commodity speculations, the possible slow growth in China and the global risk off sentiment.
For NZD
The Inflation had cause a large surge into NZD and now the RBNZ meeting on Wednesday is pretty much priced in as an unchanged.
NZD as mentioned has more fundamental strength than AUD, and is by far the best currency to buy.
GDT price tomorrow will be a good boost for NZD if we can have a positive number.
For JPY & CHF
Both currencies were benefited by the recent risk off sentiment, as mentioned, the European election is going to cause volatility and panic especially when we’re approaching April for France election.
So we expect market to continue act volatility which also benefits JPY and CHF.
Overall, we think the market is still clueless in terms of the future direction, fundamental datas from U.S, Europe, China, Australia, New Zealand and even Japan had all been quiet positive for 2017, however, the sentimental risks especially the geopolitical situations still overshadow the market.
We think the strong currencies are still NZD, AUD & CAD while the JPY & CHF will also be good buy occasionally from risk off sentiment.
USD, EUR & GBP are both unstable due to the risk sentiment and are better to stay away for now.
Today was another usual Monday with no tier one datas in both London and NY sessions.
Market liquidity had been thin, the only tier one data came after Asian session with Inflation expectation q/q from NZD and Cash Rate + RBA Rate statement from AUD.
The Inflation expectation q/q from NZD was positive than last time, which we saw another surge into the already strong currency of NZD.
The cash rate of AUD was as expected, unchanged, the statement also didn’t provide too much insight.
We saw AUD regained some ground from the existing strength, but mostly trading in the range.
Market were mixed today with positive equities in Asian but ended up negative in NY.
For EUR,
Le Pen officially launched her presidential bid, and we saw panic over the political situation for Eurozone, this had pressured EUR and caused inflow into the safe heaven currencies.
For GBP
The Parliamentary debate had finished and now PM May can finally trigger the Brexit. This alone was not a surprise, but it somehow confirmed the fact of Brexit to the investors, now that UK is really facing an unknown future. The uncertainty once again pressed GBP.
We also had BRC sales numbers and was a negative surprise, the weakest sales number since Aug 2016. The could very well be another sign that the inflation has slowly reflected in the consumption.
For USD
Dollar regained some strength over the incident between Trump and Judge, now market has calmed down a bit to realized that Trump is after all not a dictator in the constitutional U.S, there are still many opposing power to curb his executive orders.
For CAD
WTI closed today with a red candle alone with the regained strength of Dollar, these had pressured CAD to the downside for the day.
Oil market now still sends mix signal but as mentioned, the upward direction is more of a certainty. We also have large future positions from Hedge Funds that have been priced in recently.
For AUD
The RBA statement was as expected and the risk factors for AUD are still the commodity speculations, the possible slow growth in China and the global risk off sentiment.
For NZD
The Inflation had cause a large surge into NZD and now the RBNZ meeting on Wednesday is pretty much priced in as an unchanged.
NZD as mentioned has more fundamental strength than AUD, and is by far the best currency to buy.
GDT price tomorrow will be a good boost for NZD if we can have a positive number.
For JPY & CHF
Both currencies were benefited by the recent risk off sentiment, as mentioned, the European election is going to cause volatility and panic especially when we’re approaching April for France election.
So we expect market to continue act volatility which also benefits JPY and CHF.
Overall, we think the market is still clueless in terms of the future direction, fundamental datas from U.S, Europe, China, Australia, New Zealand and even Japan had all been quiet positive for 2017, however, the sentimental risks especially the geopolitical situations still overshadow the market.
We think the strong currencies are still NZD, AUD & CAD while the JPY & CHF will also be good buy occasionally from risk off sentiment.
USD, EUR & GBP are both unstable due to the risk sentiment and are better to stay away for now.