Today was another quiet economic data day, the only important data in London session was RBA Gov Lowe speaks, and market was waiting for any sort of dovish comment like what RBNZ did yesterday, but that did not happen and we saw AUD gained some strength but soon in faded out as the session continued.
In NY session we had the unemployment claims from U.S and it was once again better than expected and previous, U.S job market continued to outperform and the fundamental datas continued to be solid.
Later in Asian session we had the RBA monetary policy statement.
Basically there was not too much surprise, RBA judged a consistent growth with inflation targets, cut GDP forecast for June 2017, stated the weakness in Q3 was temporary and GDP should recover in Q4…etc
We also had report that Trump finally made his first phone call to China president Xi and said that U.S will respect the One China policy.
This is a good sign of political stability and a possible positive sentiment for USD.
The U.S Court also uphold the suspension of Trump’s Travel ban, that means right now tourist from those 7 nations can still enter U.S.
This of course was another positive sentiment for the USD, but Trump administration is going to appeal again in court.
The Trade Balance data from China was a very positive number, and this with the previous positive trade balance from Australia, the AUD had gained great strength again because of this.
Equity markets were largely green today with WTI also climbed up for 2 consecutive days.
Right now the global sentiment has taken a shift to the upside mainly because U.S political situation has finally calm down a little bit, from last week’s Travel Ban, accusation to other nations currency manipulation, continuous tweets from Donad, to this week the Travel Ban halt, Court decision, the phone with Chinese present Xi, and meeting with PM Abe tomorrow.
Note that we will have a joint press conference at 1pm EST so watch out for that.
Good AUD Trade balance and Chinese Trade balance also restored the confidence of global trade.
Trump also announced that he will have a tax plan in 2 weeks time.
For EUR
without any major economic datas and the continuation of worries over the Dutch, French and German election, on top of that, the global sentiment has picked up once again with more strength into USD as well.
These are all the factors to continue pressing EUR to the downside.
For USD
The strong sentiment from the Court ruling, the phone call with Chinese Xi, the upcoming meeting with Japan and the new announcement of the tax plan, all these have caused a new positive sentiment into the USD, which already had a strong economic picture and today’s jobless claim was another sign to support its solid economy.
Once the previous negative sentiment has been removed, USD will once again become the strongest currency for 2017.
For GBP
There is no major news so far but with the Brexit officially set in March, the future now seems quiet unstable. However, it really depends on how investors/traders react to UK and its confidence. As mentioned, we did have large amount of companies that are planning to move outside UK - but we also had large amount of companies that took the advantage of GBP to invest in UK.
I still think the currency is neutral for now unless we have more news to come.
Today we will have the Manufacturing Production m/m that is tradable with deviation.
Max 1.2%
Min -0.8%
For CAD
The oil market continued to the upside from the positive trade balance of China. There were already strong forces to help the oil market from OPEC, and now if the global demand picks up again, we will see strength into oil, and of course that will be a fundamental strength for CAD as well.
Tomorrow we will have the employment datas for CAD which will be tradable.
Employment change
Max 10K
Min -30K
Unemployment Rate
Max 7%
Min 6.8%
For AUD
The Chinese Trade Balance has certainty help AUD today, alone with the RBA statement and the previous positive Trade Balance, AUD has once again become the strongest currency for now.
We think both fundamental & sentimental elements have been very positive for AUD and there is very little uncertainty for now.
The employment datas next week can be another fresh sentiment to push it to the upside.
For NZD
The large selling from yesterday had been halted a bit by the strong Chinese Trade Balance and the global risk sentiment.
Remember that the selling of NZD came from the previous expectation of rate hike and hawkish talk, once we find a strong resistance, NZD is still an attractive currency to buy with its highest yield among G7 countries, the stable political situation and continuous growth in the economic datas.
For JPY
Tomorrow’s press conference will be a great risk even to trade JPY, not only directly with USD/JPY but in all cross, particularly if there is another negative risk sentiment arising, then JPY will be largely benefited.
However, if we have positive sentiment coming out from the press conference, then USD will be more beneficial and JPY will be sold off.
For CHF
there is no major news and it is still a fundamentally negative currency, if we have continuous of risk on sentiment, CHF will be pressured even more. However, if tomorrow the sentiment shifts due to the press conference in U.S, then CHF will once again be bought off.
Today was another quiet economic data day, the only important data in London session was RBA Gov Lowe speaks, and market was waiting for any sort of dovish comment like what RBNZ did yesterday, but that did not happen and we saw AUD gained some strength but soon in faded out as the session continued.
In NY session we had the unemployment claims from U.S and it was once again better than expected and previous, U.S job market continued to outperform and the fundamental datas continued to be solid.
Later in Asian session we had the RBA monetary policy statement.
Basically there was not too much surprise, RBA judged a consistent growth with inflation targets, cut GDP forecast for June 2017, stated the weakness in Q3 was temporary and GDP should recover in Q4…etc
We also had report that Trump finally made his first phone call to China president Xi and said that U.S will respect the One China policy.
This is a good sign of political stability and a possible positive sentiment for USD.
The U.S Court also uphold the suspension of Trump’s Travel ban, that means right now tourist from those 7 nations can still enter U.S.
This of course was another positive sentiment for the USD, but Trump administration is going to appeal again in court.
The Trade Balance data from China was a very positive number, and this with the previous positive trade balance from Australia, the AUD had gained great strength again because of this.
Equity markets were largely green today with WTI also climbed up for 2 consecutive days.
Right now the global sentiment has taken a shift to the upside mainly because U.S political situation has finally calm down a little bit, from last week’s Travel Ban, accusation to other nations currency manipulation, continuous tweets from Donad, to this week the Travel Ban halt, Court decision, the phone with Chinese present Xi, and meeting with PM Abe tomorrow.
Note that we will have a joint press conference at 1pm EST so watch out for that.
Good AUD Trade balance and Chinese Trade balance also restored the confidence of global trade.
Trump also announced that he will have a tax plan in 2 weeks time.
For EUR
without any major economic datas and the continuation of worries over the Dutch, French and German election, on top of that, the global sentiment has picked up once again with more strength into USD as well.
These are all the factors to continue pressing EUR to the downside.
For USD
The strong sentiment from the Court ruling, the phone call with Chinese Xi, the upcoming meeting with Japan and the new announcement of the tax plan, all these have caused a new positive sentiment into the USD, which already had a strong economic picture and today’s jobless claim was another sign to support its solid economy.
Once the previous negative sentiment has been removed, USD will once again become the strongest currency for 2017.
For GBP
There is no major news so far but with the Brexit officially set in March, the future now seems quiet unstable. However, it really depends on how investors/traders react to UK and its confidence. As mentioned, we did have large amount of companies that are planning to move outside UK - but we also had large amount of companies that took the advantage of GBP to invest in UK.
I still think the currency is neutral for now unless we have more news to come.
Today we will have the Manufacturing Production m/m that is tradable with deviation.
Max 1.2%
Min -0.8%
For CAD
The oil market continued to the upside from the positive trade balance of China. There were already strong forces to help the oil market from OPEC, and now if the global demand picks up again, we will see strength into oil, and of course that will be a fundamental strength for CAD as well.
Tomorrow we will have the employment datas for CAD which will be tradable.
Employment change
Max 10K
Min -30K
Unemployment Rate
Max 7%
Min 6.8%
For AUD
The Chinese Trade Balance has certainty help AUD today, alone with the RBA statement and the previous positive Trade Balance, AUD has once again become the strongest currency for now.
We think both fundamental & sentimental elements have been very positive for AUD and there is very little uncertainty for now.
The employment datas next week can be another fresh sentiment to push it to the upside.
For NZD
The large selling from yesterday had been halted a bit by the strong Chinese Trade Balance and the global risk sentiment.
Remember that the selling of NZD came from the previous expectation of rate hike and hawkish talk, once we find a strong resistance, NZD is still an attractive currency to buy with its highest yield among G7 countries, the stable political situation and continuous growth in the economic datas.
For JPY
Tomorrow’s press conference will be a great risk even to trade JPY, not only directly with USD/JPY but in all cross, particularly if there is another negative risk sentiment arising, then JPY will be largely benefited.
However, if we have positive sentiment coming out from the press conference, then USD will be more beneficial and JPY will be sold off.
For CHF
there is no major news and it is still a fundamentally negative currency, if we have continuous of risk on sentiment, CHF will be pressured even more. However, if tomorrow the sentiment shifts due to the press conference in U.S, then CHF will once again be bought off.