Yesterday the Asian session we saw AUD retail sales m/m came out as negative than expected, however, the Chinese PPI came out as positive surprise regardless of the slightly negative CPI.
Today we had no tier one datas in both sessions.
Sentimentally, equity markets were mix and oil dropped again to close near $50. The doubts over OPEC curb continues as many countries actually showed output increase. US as a non-OPEC member also expects output increase to take advantage of the recovery of oil price.
The market seems to be mixed with positivity and negativity, no clear direction is given at the moment.
For EUR, the year started with consecutively positive datas from European countries, the economy seems to be supported, however, the largest risk is still the political unstableness among many EU countries. EUR is really news driven and also act as counterpart with USD. The recent USD weakness has supported EUR, but it can reverse anytime and we still hold negative view toward EUR.
For USD, things are getting uncertain with Jan 20th approaches as Donald Trump will officially inaugurated. Fundamentally USD is still strong without a doubt, but the sentiment can become a real issue as no ones knows what kind of comments, actions or policies will be implemented soon. As mentioned, try to avoid the drops from sentiment by avoiding trading events that you are not familiar with, but once the market is calm again, then buying USD at the dip is always a good option.
Tomorrow Donald Trump will give his first news conference at 11am EST, the market will be waiting and we will expect some volatility from USD.
The net long of USD by futures market is still very large that show a solid buying desires from traders.
For CAD, the Housing Starts today showed large continuous increase in number and confirm the booming housing market of Canada is still heated up. Real Estate sector is the largest industry of Canada, and this will definitely support the unstableness from the oil market alone with Canada’s last positive job datas. As mentioned, if Canada’s economy can support itself without too much effect from oil market, then CAD is always a good neutral currency to own as BOC has remained the neutral agenda in terms of interest rate.
For AUD, although the retail sales was a bit disappointed, but the continuous support from Chinese economy and the recent weakness of USD all helped AUD to gain significant strength.
For NZD, it’s very similar as AUD, economically neutral and is benefited by China and the recent weakness of USD.
For JPY & CHF, no significant news but both had been and could be benefited further by safe heaven effect if we have continuous negative or uncertain sentiment for USD.
For GBP, the Brexit negative sentiment continuous to be the sole driven force for GBP, and will expect to be like this for quiet some time, so trade GBP with news events is the best strategy. Our general view is still bearish toward it.
Tomorrow we will have Manufacturing Production m/m from UK which we will once again place our short sell view upon negative deviation. We will buy AUD against it if the trade is valid.
Then watch out for Donald Trump press conference, no real direction can be predicted, but in general, if you hear more comments about protectionism, anti-immigration or anti-trade, that will be negative sentiment for USD and can sell USD against AUD or JPY.
On the other hand, if you hear comments about financial deregulations, jobs increase, infrastructure, high interest, that is positive sentiment for USD and you can buy USD against JPY or GBP.
Of course, if you’re not sure, then don’t need to risk over it.
Yesterday the Asian session we saw AUD retail sales m/m came out as negative than expected, however, the Chinese PPI came out as positive surprise regardless of the slightly negative CPI.
Today we had no tier one datas in both sessions.
Sentimentally, equity markets were mix and oil dropped again to close near $50. The doubts over OPEC curb continues as many countries actually showed output increase. US as a non-OPEC member also expects output increase to take advantage of the recovery of oil price.
The market seems to be mixed with positivity and negativity, no clear direction is given at the moment.
For EUR, the year started with consecutively positive datas from European countries, the economy seems to be supported, however, the largest risk is still the political unstableness among many EU countries. EUR is really news driven and also act as counterpart with USD. The recent USD weakness has supported EUR, but it can reverse anytime and we still hold negative view toward EUR.
For USD, things are getting uncertain with Jan 20th approaches as Donald Trump will officially inaugurated. Fundamentally USD is still strong without a doubt, but the sentiment can become a real issue as no ones knows what kind of comments, actions or policies will be implemented soon. As mentioned, try to avoid the drops from sentiment by avoiding trading events that you are not familiar with, but once the market is calm again, then buying USD at the dip is always a good option.
Tomorrow Donald Trump will give his first news conference at 11am EST, the market will be waiting and we will expect some volatility from USD.
The net long of USD by futures market is still very large that show a solid buying desires from traders.
For CAD, the Housing Starts today showed large continuous increase in number and confirm the booming housing market of Canada is still heated up. Real Estate sector is the largest industry of Canada, and this will definitely support the unstableness from the oil market alone with Canada’s last positive job datas. As mentioned, if Canada’s economy can support itself without too much effect from oil market, then CAD is always a good neutral currency to own as BOC has remained the neutral agenda in terms of interest rate.
For AUD, although the retail sales was a bit disappointed, but the continuous support from Chinese economy and the recent weakness of USD all helped AUD to gain significant strength.
For NZD, it’s very similar as AUD, economically neutral and is benefited by China and the recent weakness of USD.
For JPY & CHF, no significant news but both had been and could be benefited further by safe heaven effect if we have continuous negative or uncertain sentiment for USD.
For GBP, the Brexit negative sentiment continuous to be the sole driven force for GBP, and will expect to be like this for quiet some time, so trade GBP with news events is the best strategy. Our general view is still bearish toward it.
Tomorrow we will have Manufacturing Production m/m from UK which we will once again place our short sell view upon negative deviation. We will buy AUD against it if the trade is valid.
Then watch out for Donald Trump press conference, no real direction can be predicted, but in general, if you hear more comments about protectionism, anti-immigration or anti-trade, that will be negative sentiment for USD and can sell USD against AUD or JPY.
On the other hand, if you hear comments about financial deregulations, jobs increase, infrastructure, high interest, that is positive sentiment for USD and you can buy USD against JPY or GBP.
Of course, if you’re not sure, then don’t need to risk over it.
