Yesterday the Chinese Trade Balance was a miss with numbers lower than expected and previous.
Today the tire one datas USD Core retail & PPI were both miss while PPI and Retail were both beat. The big picture is that the fundamental has once again confirmed the economic strength of U.S.
Prelim UoM consumer sentiment was also at a 13 year high.
Equity markets were generally green today while WTI closed down with small candle and still above $52 per barrel.
OPEC delegates said OPEC will most likely not meet the fully target but 80% to 50% is expected. This of course is negative for the market but not unexpected as market already anticipated a lower than expected production cut from OPEC since they reached the agreement last year.
Oil price was also pressured from negative Chinese Trade Balance as the sign of economic slow down in China is a worry sign for oil demand and global market in general.
For EUR, central European countries have released positive inflation report and as mentioned the overall economic picture in Europe has picked up, but the labour market is still unstable and most importantly, the Eurozone is still divided in both economic aspect and political future.
For USD, the datas today were once again positive desire the miss of core datas and it also follows through the FED agenda, now fundamentally speaking the 3 rate hikes for 2017 is very possible, for now. The negative sentiment from Donald Trump press conference also died down a bit to help the dollar.
For GBP, the volatility is high and emotions are driven the market as PM May is about to give the talk for Brexit Plan next Tuesday, It should be a major and volatile event to look forward to.
For CAD, the USD regained its strength to hurt the oil market and hence pressured CAD, too.
For AUD & NZD, continued to perform well in the absence of USD domination. AUD has been the best performing currency this year so far, which really was due to the large sell-off last year when USD was overheated by all the positive sentiment.
As mentioned, once USD regains more strength, we should see a retrace in both AUD & NZD.
For JPY & CHF, no major news but the equity markets regained strength today has hurt the safe haven currencies.
Sunday updates:
Market opens sharply down for British Pound as investors are selling ahead of PM May’s Speech on Tuesday. The negative sentiment continues for GBP and Monday is U.S holiday, so the liquidity will be thin which might push down even further down.
You can trade the sentiment now until the Speech as selling the rumour and buying the fact.
For this week
Sunday
PPI y/y from Japan can tell us how the inflation is right now and whether further stimulus is necessary.
Monday
BOE Carney will speak ahead of Tuesday’s PM speech, all focus will be on GBP for this week.
Tuesday
GBP CPY y/y will be released and expected number will also be increased but not from economic strength but form currency devaluation.
This might be very little effect if release before PM speech as that will be the headline.
We’re not looking to trade this event as a positive CPI in this particular case does not mean a resilient economy, and a negative CPI also does not provide a positive picture.
We will mainly be trading PM Speech with the sentiment and market reaction.
The general expectation is a Hard Brexit talk with negative sentiment, but it can go either way depending on the speech.
We also have GDT price from NZD but it’s not scheduled to trade, however, best to watch out our current NZD positions prior to the report.
Wednesday
We have GBP Average earnings index, Claimant Count Change and Unemployment rate. However, we have to see what happen after PM Speech on Tuesday to give us a better picture.
GBP
Average Earnings Index
Max
Min
Claimant Count Change
Max
Min
Unemployment Rate
Max
Min
We also have Final CPI from EUR that is not really tradable as not a tier one data but still important.
Then we will have USD CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m that we’re looking to buy with positive deviation.
USD
CPI m/m
Max
Min
Core CPI m/m
Max
Min
We also have the Industrial Production m/m which also expected to be positive.
We also have BOC interest rate decision, statement, report and press conference. The rate is expected to be held the same but the statement, report and conference might provide more insight and sentiment for the currency.
The recent sentiment of CAD has been positive due to good job datas and rising oil price.
We also have FED Yellen speaks in the afternoon.
Later at Asian session, we will have AUD employment datas coming out.
AUD
Employment Change
Max
Min
Unemployment rate
Max
Min
Thursday
Today is another jam-packed economic datas day.
ECB interest rate is coming out with press conference, although the rate and QE are expected to be the same, but ECB might provide more insight for their plan in 2017 as this is their first meeting of the year.
We have heard complaints from many economists in various European countries to urge ECB to raise the interest rate and/or tapper the QE, notably from Germany.
CAD Manufacturing sales m/m is coming out, but we will have to see how Wednesday’s BOC press conference set the sentiment for CAD and how is the oil market doing.
Max
Min
USD Building Permits, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims and Housing Starts are all coming out, non of them are tradable events but they are all important datas.
Crude oil inventories is also coming out to give us more clear direction in oil market and CAD.
Finally in Asian session we will have Chinese GDP data, Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment, and Retail Sales. all datas are important for global economy and will set a tone for the equity markets for the session and next London and NY session.
The datas are also very important for AUD & NZD as both are highly effected by Chinese economy.
Friday
We starts with German PPI m/m in London session.
GBP Retail Sales m/m is also coming out. Again, we will have to see what happen to the PM Speech and new update for us to trade this event.
Max
Min
CAD Core CPI & CPI, core retail and retail are all coming out.
Core CPI
Max
Min
CPI
Max
Min
Core Retail
Max
Min
Retail
Max
Min
Finally, Friday is also the Inauguration of Donald Trump and this will be another risk event to trade the USD sentiment.
Yesterday the Chinese Trade Balance was a miss with numbers lower than expected and previous.
Today the tire one datas USD Core retail & PPI were both miss while PPI and Retail were both beat. The big picture is that the fundamental has once again confirmed the economic strength of U.S.
Prelim UoM consumer sentiment was also at a 13 year high.
Equity markets were generally green today while WTI closed down with small candle and still above $52 per barrel.
OPEC delegates said OPEC will most likely not meet the fully target but 80% to 50% is expected. This of course is negative for the market but not unexpected as market already anticipated a lower than expected production cut from OPEC since they reached the agreement last year.
Oil price was also pressured from negative Chinese Trade Balance as the sign of economic slow down in China is a worry sign for oil demand and global market in general.
For EUR, central European countries have released positive inflation report and as mentioned the overall economic picture in Europe has picked up, but the labour market is still unstable and most importantly, the Eurozone is still divided in both economic aspect and political future.
For USD, the datas today were once again positive desire the miss of core datas and it also follows through the FED agenda, now fundamentally speaking the 3 rate hikes for 2017 is very possible, for now. The negative sentiment from Donald Trump press conference also died down a bit to help the dollar.
For GBP, the volatility is high and emotions are driven the market as PM May is about to give the talk for Brexit Plan next Tuesday, It should be a major and volatile event to look forward to.
For CAD, the USD regained its strength to hurt the oil market and hence pressured CAD, too.
For AUD & NZD, continued to perform well in the absence of USD domination. AUD has been the best performing currency this year so far, which really was due to the large sell-off last year when USD was overheated by all the positive sentiment.
As mentioned, once USD regains more strength, we should see a retrace in both AUD & NZD.
For JPY & CHF, no major news but the equity markets regained strength today has hurt the safe haven currencies.
Sunday updates:
Market opens sharply down for British Pound as investors are selling ahead of PM May’s Speech on Tuesday. The negative sentiment continues for GBP and Monday is U.S holiday, so the liquidity will be thin which might push down even further down.
You can trade the sentiment now until the Speech as selling the rumour and buying the fact.
For this week
Sunday
PPI y/y from Japan can tell us how the inflation is right now and whether further stimulus is necessary.
Monday
BOE Carney will speak ahead of Tuesday’s PM speech, all focus will be on GBP for this week.
Tuesday
GBP CPY y/y will be released and expected number will also be increased but not from economic strength but form currency devaluation.
This might be very little effect if release before PM speech as that will be the headline.
We’re not looking to trade this event as a positive CPI in this particular case does not mean a resilient economy, and a negative CPI also does not provide a positive picture.
We will mainly be trading PM Speech with the sentiment and market reaction.
The general expectation is a Hard Brexit talk with negative sentiment, but it can go either way depending on the speech.
We also have GDT price from NZD but it’s not scheduled to trade, however, best to watch out our current NZD positions prior to the report.
Wednesday
We have GBP Average earnings index, Claimant Count Change and Unemployment rate. However, we have to see what happen after PM Speech on Tuesday to give us a better picture.
GBP
Average Earnings Index
Max
Min
Claimant Count Change
Max
Min
Unemployment Rate
Max
Min
We also have Final CPI from EUR that is not really tradable as not a tier one data but still important.
Then we will have USD CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m that we’re looking to buy with positive deviation.
USD
CPI m/m
Max
Min
Core CPI m/m
Max
Min
We also have the Industrial Production m/m which also expected to be positive.
We also have BOC interest rate decision, statement, report and press conference. The rate is expected to be held the same but the statement, report and conference might provide more insight and sentiment for the currency.
The recent sentiment of CAD has been positive due to good job datas and rising oil price.
We also have FED Yellen speaks in the afternoon.
Later at Asian session, we will have AUD employment datas coming out.
AUD
Employment Change
Max
Min
Unemployment rate
Max
Min
Thursday
Today is another jam-packed economic datas day.
ECB interest rate is coming out with press conference, although the rate and QE are expected to be the same, but ECB might provide more insight for their plan in 2017 as this is their first meeting of the year.
We have heard complaints from many economists in various European countries to urge ECB to raise the interest rate and/or tapper the QE, notably from Germany.
CAD Manufacturing sales m/m is coming out, but we will have to see how Wednesday’s BOC press conference set the sentiment for CAD and how is the oil market doing.
Max
Min
USD Building Permits, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims and Housing Starts are all coming out, non of them are tradable events but they are all important datas.
Crude oil inventories is also coming out to give us more clear direction in oil market and CAD.
Finally in Asian session we will have Chinese GDP data, Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment, and Retail Sales. all datas are important for global economy and will set a tone for the equity markets for the session and next London and NY session.
The datas are also very important for AUD & NZD as both are highly effected by Chinese economy.
Friday
We starts with German PPI m/m in London session.
GBP Retail Sales m/m is also coming out. Again, we will have to see what happen to the PM Speech and new update for us to trade this event.
Max
Min
CAD Core CPI & CPI, core retail and retail are all coming out.
Core CPI
Max
Min
CPI
Max
Min
Core Retail
Max
Min
Retail
Max
Min
Finally, Friday is also the Inauguration of Donald Trump and this will be another risk event to trade the USD sentiment.