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Yesterday the Aussie employment data were a mix with more employment number but higher unemployment rate, however if looking closely, there are also more participation which could explain the higher unemployment rate.
Aussie fell initially only rose up against all currencies.
There were no tier one datas during the London session and ECB kept the rate unchanged as expected in NY session.
Followed by the press conference where ECB has once again firmed on their stance of easing monetary environment.
ECB also addressed the issue with potential high inflation by contributing it to high oil price.
ECB urged people to be patient with the policy.
So basically nothing had changed and ECB just once again showed their determination for the low rate market, this of course is negative for EURO and EURO dropped significantly during the conference, however, only to be recovered later on as no surprise was given by ECB.
CAD also released a positive Manufacturing Sales data but CAD was still the most bearish currency for the day, not only the negative sentiment from yesterday’s BOC press conference continued, today the Crude inventories datas weren’t too promising as well with higher than expected built up in Crude stocks, large draws in Distillate but large built up in Gasoline as a deviation.
Generally a mixed result with more bearish outlook, of course we still had the positive sentiment from OPEC members especially Saudi, but market still sold off initially only to recover.
WTI closed around $51 per barrel.
Equity markets were largely down from Europeans to Americas to paint a risk off sentiment while the USD strength continues to pick up.
Later on we will have Yellen speaks at 8pm EST and Chinese datas will also be released which is expected to shake the market if we have a deviation in either side.
Tomorrow we have Retail sales m/m in GBP with
Max 0.4%
Min -1%
Core Retail Sales m/m
Max 0.4%
Min -0.9%
Retail Sales YY
Max 7.5%
Min 6%
Core Retail Sales YY
Max 8.4%
Min 6.5%
I’m looking to either buy or sell with deviations but it has to depend on the general market after the Asia session and Chinese datas.
GBP is in a neutral sentiment now and that’s why both directions could work with a surprise datas.
We will have CAD CPI and Core CPI, Retail and Core Retails coming out.
CPI m/m
Max 0.6%
Min -0.5%
CPI y/y
Max 2.3%
Min 1.1%
Core CPI m/m
Max -0.1%
Min -0.2%
Core CPI y/y
Max 1.8%
Min 1.5%
Retail m/m
Max 1.2%
Min 0%
Core Retail m/m
Max 0.7%
Min -0.5%
I will look to sell CAD upon negative deviation because CAD has suffered from the negative sentiment and uncertainty around the trade deal with U.S. I expect the positive numbers to have very muted reaction while the negative datas will cause further sells in CAD.
Remember tomorrow is the Inauguration, that means all trades are best to close or set to break even prior to the event.
We don’t have a clear direction for the event and no one does, so protect yourself and enjoy the weekend tomorrow.
Yesterday the Aussie employment data were a mix with more employment number but higher unemployment rate, however if looking closely, there are also more participation which could explain the higher unemployment rate.
Aussie fell initially only rose up against all currencies.
There were no tier one datas during the London session and ECB kept the rate unchanged as expected in NY session.
Followed by the press conference where ECB has once again firmed on their stance of easing monetary environment.
ECB also addressed the issue with potential high inflation by contributing it to high oil price.
ECB urged people to be patient with the policy.
So basically nothing had changed and ECB just once again showed their determination for the low rate market, this of course is negative for EURO and EURO dropped significantly during the conference, however, only to be recovered later on as no surprise was given by ECB.
CAD also released a positive Manufacturing Sales data but CAD was still the most bearish currency for the day, not only the negative sentiment from yesterday’s BOC press conference continued, today the Crude inventories datas weren’t too promising as well with higher than expected built up in Crude stocks, large draws in Distillate but large built up in Gasoline as a deviation.
Generally a mixed result with more bearish outlook, of course we still had the positive sentiment from OPEC members especially Saudi, but market still sold off initially only to recover.
WTI closed around $51 per barrel.
Equity markets were largely down from Europeans to Americas to paint a risk off sentiment while the USD strength continues to pick up.
Later on we will have Yellen speaks at 8pm EST and Chinese datas will also be released which is expected to shake the market if we have a deviation in either side.
Tomorrow we have Retail sales m/m in GBP with
Max 0.4%
Min -1%
Core Retail Sales m/m
Max 0.4%
Min -0.9%
Retail Sales YY
Max 7.5%
Min 6%
Core Retail Sales YY
Max 8.4%
Min 6.5%
I’m looking to either buy or sell with deviations but it has to depend on the general market after the Asia session and Chinese datas.
GBP is in a neutral sentiment now and that’s why both directions could work with a surprise datas.
We will have CAD CPI and Core CPI, Retail and Core Retails coming out.
CPI m/m
Max 0.6%
Min -0.5%
CPI y/y
Max 2.3%
Min 1.1%
Core CPI m/m
Max -0.1%
Min -0.2%
Core CPI y/y
Max 1.8%
Min 1.5%
Retail m/m
Max 1.2%
Min 0%
Core Retail m/m
Max 0.7%
Min -0.5%
I will look to sell CAD upon negative deviation because CAD has suffered from the negative sentiment and uncertainty around the trade deal with U.S. I expect the positive numbers to have very muted reaction while the negative datas will cause further sells in CAD.
Remember tomorrow is the Inauguration, that means all trades are best to close or set to break even prior to the event.
We don’t have a clear direction for the event and no one does, so protect yourself and enjoy the weekend tomorrow.