****absent for Feb 28th due to sickness****
For Feb 28th
The London session was quiet and the first catalyst came at NY session for U.S Prelim GDP q/q.
This is actually the Second Estamate of GDP so normally wouldn’t have too much reactions unless we have huge deviations.
The result came less than expected but in line with previous.
The USD in general was largely bought off ahead of the Donald Trump Joint Congress Speech.
The CB Consumer Confidence for U.S also came out largely positive than expected and previous.
Then at Asian session we had GDP q/q and y/y from AUD and both came out as positive surprise.
It followed by Manufacturing PMI & Caixin Manufacturing PMI from China which both numbers were positive than expected and previous.
These results had pushed AUD to the sky and then finally Donald Trump delivered his speech which once again didn’t provide too much shock or insight, however, the market still reacted positively with USD due to FED members positive comments and high possibility for March rate hike.
Today March 1st the London session was still quiet and we had Manufacturing PMI from UK which came out negative than expected and previous.
The alone with the already bearish sentiment for UK due to Brexit has pushed GBP further to the downside.
In NY session BOC released the rate as expected, unchanged.
The CAD had been largely sold off previous days and now slowly recovered.
The BOC still maintained a bit dovish outlook but the recent fundamental datas have been promising.
For EUR
Without any tier one datas, EUR continues to drift in the sideway with more negative sentiment from political uncertainty from the elections.
Fundamentally, the ECB has not changed anything in regards to QE and therefore has continued to pressure EUR to the downside.
For USD
Donald Trump’s speech did not provide too much movements to the market, however, Fed members comments now had pushed the March rate hike possibility higher. Because of that, Dollar has regained strength again with traders price in for the next hike.
Fundamentally, the U.S datas & Fed future policies still direct toward a tightening market and therefore, USD remains to be a strong currency.
For GBP
The disappoited Manufacturing numbers alone with the negative sentiment from triggering of Article 50 this month have pushed GBP to a new low in many pairs.
We think the Bearish sentiment will be in large play for GBP and unless the fundamental datas can back the economic side, otherwise GBP will go even lower from now on.
For CAD
Tomorrow we will have the GDP data for CAD, but with the existing fundamental datas, CAD had been performing well. However, the downside is the dovish stance from BOC and as long as that part existed, be careful to long CAD against other stronger currencies.
For AUD
Now the GDP number has released and the result was as expected and even better than RBA’s prediction, AUD has once again become the strongest currency for 2017. We are at a very high levels for AUD in many pairs so might have some retracement, but AUD is looking very well to the upside against all other currencies.
For NZD
RBNZ Governor Wheeler spoke again and said that risks around future rate movements as equally balanced and that RBNZ is comfortable with current economic projections.
This is more neutral comparing to previous jawboning of RBNZ. As mentioned, fundamentally speaking NZD had been performed quiet well and even better than AUD. As long as the RBNZ can remain neutral, we do think NZD should regain some strength against other currencies.
For JPY
The equity markets closed high today to signal another risk on sentiment which pressured down Japanese Yen. Now that the rate hike in March is much alive with strong datas from China and Australia, safe heaven currencies should be pressured down even more.
For CHF
CHF is in the exact same spot as Japanese Yen and we think it is even less attractive to hedge for safe heaven buyers because the risk of political uncertainty is form Eurozone this time which will largely effect Switzerland.
****absent for Feb 28th due to sickness****
For Feb 28th
The London session was quiet and the first catalyst came at NY session for U.S Prelim GDP q/q.
This is actually the Second Estamate of GDP so normally wouldn’t have too much reactions unless we have huge deviations.
The result came less than expected but in line with previous.
The USD in general was largely bought off ahead of the Donald Trump Joint Congress Speech.
The CB Consumer Confidence for U.S also came out largely positive than expected and previous.
Then at Asian session we had GDP q/q and y/y from AUD and both came out as positive surprise.
It followed by Manufacturing PMI & Caixin Manufacturing PMI from China which both numbers were positive than expected and previous.
These results had pushed AUD to the sky and then finally Donald Trump delivered his speech which once again didn’t provide too much shock or insight, however, the market still reacted positively with USD due to FED members positive comments and high possibility for March rate hike.
Today March 1st the London session was still quiet and we had Manufacturing PMI from UK which came out negative than expected and previous.
The alone with the already bearish sentiment for UK due to Brexit has pushed GBP further to the downside.
In NY session BOC released the rate as expected, unchanged.
The CAD had been largely sold off previous days and now slowly recovered.
The BOC still maintained a bit dovish outlook but the recent fundamental datas have been promising.
For EUR
Without any tier one datas, EUR continues to drift in the sideway with more negative sentiment from political uncertainty from the elections.
Fundamentally, the ECB has not changed anything in regards to QE and therefore has continued to pressure EUR to the downside.
For USD
Donald Trump’s speech did not provide too much movements to the market, however, Fed members comments now had pushed the March rate hike possibility higher. Because of that, Dollar has regained strength again with traders price in for the next hike.
Fundamentally, the U.S datas & Fed future policies still direct toward a tightening market and therefore, USD remains to be a strong currency.
For GBP
The disappoited Manufacturing numbers alone with the negative sentiment from triggering of Article 50 this month have pushed GBP to a new low in many pairs.
We think the Bearish sentiment will be in large play for GBP and unless the fundamental datas can back the economic side, otherwise GBP will go even lower from now on.
For CAD
Tomorrow we will have the GDP data for CAD, but with the existing fundamental datas, CAD had been performing well. However, the downside is the dovish stance from BOC and as long as that part existed, be careful to long CAD against other stronger currencies.
For AUD
Now the GDP number has released and the result was as expected and even better than RBA’s prediction, AUD has once again become the strongest currency for 2017. We are at a very high levels for AUD in many pairs so might have some retracement, but AUD is looking very well to the upside against all other currencies.
For NZD
RBNZ Governor Wheeler spoke again and said that risks around future rate movements as equally balanced and that RBNZ is comfortable with current economic projections.
This is more neutral comparing to previous jawboning of RBNZ. As mentioned, fundamentally speaking NZD had been performed quiet well and even better than AUD. As long as the RBNZ can remain neutral, we do think NZD should regain some strength against other currencies.
For JPY
The equity markets closed high today to signal another risk on sentiment which pressured down Japanese Yen. Now that the rate hike in March is much alive with strong datas from China and Australia, safe heaven currencies should be pressured down even more.
For CHF
CHF is in the exact same spot as Japanese Yen and we think it is even less attractive to hedge for safe heaven buyers because the risk of political uncertainty is form Eurozone this time which will largely effect Switzerland.