Major events for the day (Asian - London - NY - Asian)
Current Sentiment
Upcoming Risk Events
Our Game Plans for next Sessions (London to NY)
-we don’t really have too much economic releases for the next 2 sessions, however, few Fed speakers and BOC governor might give us some trading opportunities.
The recent approval of Keystone pipeline and OPEC possible extension on the output curb should give CAD some support, but because BOC is still dovish and that continues to pressure CAD. We will see if BOC makes any new stance today.
For now, i still think the market is very fragile and should have another round of buying into safe heaven currencies as we’re still looming under the inability of Trump administration with Donald Trump publicly tweeting against his own party for the first time since elected. This was a big worry sign for the union of Republics and markets are seriously doubting the future policies of Trump.
We also had analysis from investment banks that the stock markets should have 10% retracement and that will be healthy for the market overall.
Moreover, the triggering of article 50 should start to kick in to create another round of uncertainty.
The currencies I’m looking to short against JPY will be USD.
I’m also looking to short GBP/JPY but i’m already in the trade.
AUD & NZD were sold off largely last week due to risk sentiment, but the economic side of both currencies are still solid. If we have another bearish market in commodities, AUD/JPY will also be good to sell at retracement level.
Another notable currency to buy will be EUR.
EUR has some good supports recently from the continuous hawkish comments of ECB members, the positive Dutch election result and French election debate result, and we just had great German Ifo yesterday and positive PMIs last week from European nations.
Finally, Angela Merkel had won the regional election which gave Euro another boost of positive sentiment.
EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD & EUR/NZD will be on my watch list.
Major events for the day (Asian - London - NY - Asian)
- BOJ Summary of Opnions stated that easy policy will be here for sometime
- JPY SPPI y/y 0.8% vs 0.5% expected; 0.5% previously
- German Ifo Business climate 112.3 vs 111.2 expected; 111.1 previous
- ECB Weidmann: We have to discuss the issue of exiting expansive policy
- ECB Lautenschläger: ECB should be prepared for policy change
- ECB Praet: too early to talk about exiting stimulus but this year ECB has started seeing light at the end of the tunnel
- Fed Evans: 2 or 3 rate hikes are appropriate this year
- Fed Kaplan: GDP growth will be 2.25% this year and still enough to take slack from the labour market
- AUD ANZ Roy Morgan consumer confidence index 113.8 vs 112.0 previously
Current Sentiment
- After a day of risk off sentiment with significant USD weakness, the dip buyers came in at NY session and had supported the market.
- We’re now seeing the positive equity markets in Asian session.
Upcoming Risk Events
- USD CB Consumer Confidence
- BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
- Fed Janet Yellen Speaks
- Fed Esther George Speaks
- Fed Kaplan Speaks
- Fed Jerome Powell Speaks
- JPY Retail Sales y/y
Our Game Plans for next Sessions (London to NY)
-we don’t really have too much economic releases for the next 2 sessions, however, few Fed speakers and BOC governor might give us some trading opportunities.
The recent approval of Keystone pipeline and OPEC possible extension on the output curb should give CAD some support, but because BOC is still dovish and that continues to pressure CAD. We will see if BOC makes any new stance today.
For now, i still think the market is very fragile and should have another round of buying into safe heaven currencies as we’re still looming under the inability of Trump administration with Donald Trump publicly tweeting against his own party for the first time since elected. This was a big worry sign for the union of Republics and markets are seriously doubting the future policies of Trump.
We also had analysis from investment banks that the stock markets should have 10% retracement and that will be healthy for the market overall.
Moreover, the triggering of article 50 should start to kick in to create another round of uncertainty.
The currencies I’m looking to short against JPY will be USD.
I’m also looking to short GBP/JPY but i’m already in the trade.
AUD & NZD were sold off largely last week due to risk sentiment, but the economic side of both currencies are still solid. If we have another bearish market in commodities, AUD/JPY will also be good to sell at retracement level.
Another notable currency to buy will be EUR.
EUR has some good supports recently from the continuous hawkish comments of ECB members, the positive Dutch election result and French election debate result, and we just had great German Ifo yesterday and positive PMIs last week from European nations.
Finally, Angela Merkel had won the regional election which gave Euro another boost of positive sentiment.
EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD & EUR/NZD will be on my watch list.