Major events for the day (Asian - London - NY - Asian)
Current Sentiment
Upcoming Risk Events
Our Game Plans for next Sessions (London to NY)
-The notable move of the market was the weakness in GBP due to the signing of article 50. The next move is coming when May, her cabinets or EU officials delivery any comments.
The main focus will be on the free movement of EU workers in UK as this is the main conflict for the negotiation (for now).
As mentioned, any uncertainty will be negative sentiment for a country and its currency, however, be very careful as we might have another “buy rumour sell fact” effect which we might see GBP rebound after the event dies down.
My GBP/JPY trade had worked out well (in from 139.09) which i took half off and trailed my stop loss now.
I won’t do anymore GBP short trade for now as it’ll be too late in the game and anything can come up suddenly to change the direction. Instead, I’ll wait to hear the news to decide my direction.
If any, I’m actually leaning toward buying GBP/JPY after the event dies down as GBP still enjoys the rate hike possibility and hawkish BOE. The fundamental datas were also well.
Another trade setup is to buy AUD/JPY as the market sentiment has shifted to the upside now and with lack of datas, we should see some buying into AUD over Japanese Yen.
USD/JPY is also an alternative choice for long for the session.
Major events for the day (Asian - London - NY - Asian)
- Richmond Manufacturing Index 22 vs 16 expected, 17 previous
- CB Consumer Confidence 125.6 vs 113.9 expected, 1166.1 previous
- Fed Fischer: Two more hikes to me seems to be about right.
- Fed Kaplan: Wants to gradually remove accommodation
- BOC Poloz: Downside risks indentified in last monetary statement are still the same
- BOC Poloz: Raising rates prematurely would cause a recession
- SNB Maechler: We are not in a position of even considering to shrink balance sheet
- BOE McCafferty: UK will raises rates when the UK economy is strong enough
- UK PM May signed the Article 50 letter
Current Sentiment
- The sentiment has changed to the upside since yesterday’s European session until NY which all closed in green.
- USD has regained strength across the board.
- EUR was also well supported by the month end inflow.
- The biggest losers were safe heaven currencies and GBP due to the upcoming article 50 event.
- The European equities opened in green now and WTI up with Gold down.
Upcoming Risk Events
- UK Article 50 events - Timeline
- Crude Oil Inventories
Our Game Plans for next Sessions (London to NY)
-The notable move of the market was the weakness in GBP due to the signing of article 50. The next move is coming when May, her cabinets or EU officials delivery any comments.
The main focus will be on the free movement of EU workers in UK as this is the main conflict for the negotiation (for now).
As mentioned, any uncertainty will be negative sentiment for a country and its currency, however, be very careful as we might have another “buy rumour sell fact” effect which we might see GBP rebound after the event dies down.
My GBP/JPY trade had worked out well (in from 139.09) which i took half off and trailed my stop loss now.
I won’t do anymore GBP short trade for now as it’ll be too late in the game and anything can come up suddenly to change the direction. Instead, I’ll wait to hear the news to decide my direction.
If any, I’m actually leaning toward buying GBP/JPY after the event dies down as GBP still enjoys the rate hike possibility and hawkish BOE. The fundamental datas were also well.
Another trade setup is to buy AUD/JPY as the market sentiment has shifted to the upside now and with lack of datas, we should see some buying into AUD over Japanese Yen.
USD/JPY is also an alternative choice for long for the session.