Recap for
Today was another quiet economic release day with no tier one datas in London session.
In NY session we saw Trade Balance from Canada which came out better than previous and expected numbers while the U.S Trade Balance was lower than expected and previous number. However, these datas did not provide too much movements.
We also had GDT price from NZD which came out as negative.
The Ivey PMI from CAD was also negative than previous and expected numbers.
Later in Asian session we saw Final GDP q/q and y/y from Japan which both came out as a miss.
The biggest upset was the Trade Balance from China which was expected to be 173B while previous number was 355B, the actual result was -60B which was a huge upset. We saw large negative sentiment came out from it and the market immediately went to a risk off sentiment.
With lack of catalysts for the day, most pairs were trading in a tight range today and market is in a sideway movement.
For EUR
The political situation continues to be the main catalyst for EUR, and most traders are waiting for another fresh new direction from Thursday’s ECB meeting. ECB might changes their stance from dovish to neutral because of the headline inflation has hit 2%. However, the core inflation is still below the target and ECB might still contribute the inflation to higher energy price and continue to hold a dovish stance.
For USD
Dollar continues to be well supported with yield climbs higher and higher with gold dropped once again. We still need a new catalyst to push dollar higher and the NFP this Friday might be that last push until the Fed meeting next week.
For GBP
GBP continues to be the loser and as mentioned, due to the triggering of Article 50 in this month, we should see more volatility come into GBP and the downside risk remains large.
The Brexit bills is currently in the Parliament and the battle between the Government and the Parliament continues.
For CAD
WTI reamins to be in the range bound, with lack of catalysts, CAD continues to be bearish due to dovish stance of BOC and lack of new positive datas and strong USD.
For AUD
AUD continues to be well supported but the disappointed Chinese Trade Balance definitely pressured AUD to the downside. However, with the strong commodity prices and hawkish RBA, we think this downside movement is only temporary and we should resume to the upside soon.
For NZD
NZD was another biggest loser for the day, with a negative GDT datas, negative Chinese Trade Balance and dovish RBNZ, NZD continues to be sold off regardless of the high yield and relatively good fundamental datas.
For JPY
Although the GDP growth rate was lower than expected but still in line with the previous. It’s the fourth consecutive quarter of growth boosted by exports, government spending and private non-residential investment. But the household consumption is still flat and that has been the issue for low inflation in Japan.
The recent risk off sentiment also played a boost into Yen.
For CHF
With lack of meaningful catalyst, CHF remains to be weak fundamentally but neutral sentimentally especially from the safe heaven inflows.
Current Central Banks Positions
Hawkish
FED
RBA
Neutral
BOE
Dovish
ECB
BOC
RBNZ
SNB
BOJ
Current Bank Rates
NZD > AUD > USD > CAD > GBP > EUR > JPY > CHF
10 yrs Bond Yields
NZD 3.345
AUD 2.905
USD 2.548
CAD 1.765
UK 1.223
EUR 0.353
JPY 0.079
CHF -0.104
Recap for
Today was another quiet economic release day with no tier one datas in London session.
In NY session we saw Trade Balance from Canada which came out better than previous and expected numbers while the U.S Trade Balance was lower than expected and previous number. However, these datas did not provide too much movements.
We also had GDT price from NZD which came out as negative.
The Ivey PMI from CAD was also negative than previous and expected numbers.
Later in Asian session we saw Final GDP q/q and y/y from Japan which both came out as a miss.
The biggest upset was the Trade Balance from China which was expected to be 173B while previous number was 355B, the actual result was -60B which was a huge upset. We saw large negative sentiment came out from it and the market immediately went to a risk off sentiment.
With lack of catalysts for the day, most pairs were trading in a tight range today and market is in a sideway movement.
For EUR
The political situation continues to be the main catalyst for EUR, and most traders are waiting for another fresh new direction from Thursday’s ECB meeting. ECB might changes their stance from dovish to neutral because of the headline inflation has hit 2%. However, the core inflation is still below the target and ECB might still contribute the inflation to higher energy price and continue to hold a dovish stance.
For USD
Dollar continues to be well supported with yield climbs higher and higher with gold dropped once again. We still need a new catalyst to push dollar higher and the NFP this Friday might be that last push until the Fed meeting next week.
For GBP
GBP continues to be the loser and as mentioned, due to the triggering of Article 50 in this month, we should see more volatility come into GBP and the downside risk remains large.
The Brexit bills is currently in the Parliament and the battle between the Government and the Parliament continues.
For CAD
WTI reamins to be in the range bound, with lack of catalysts, CAD continues to be bearish due to dovish stance of BOC and lack of new positive datas and strong USD.
For AUD
AUD continues to be well supported but the disappointed Chinese Trade Balance definitely pressured AUD to the downside. However, with the strong commodity prices and hawkish RBA, we think this downside movement is only temporary and we should resume to the upside soon.
For NZD
NZD was another biggest loser for the day, with a negative GDT datas, negative Chinese Trade Balance and dovish RBNZ, NZD continues to be sold off regardless of the high yield and relatively good fundamental datas.
For JPY
Although the GDP growth rate was lower than expected but still in line with the previous. It’s the fourth consecutive quarter of growth boosted by exports, government spending and private non-residential investment. But the household consumption is still flat and that has been the issue for low inflation in Japan.
The recent risk off sentiment also played a boost into Yen.
For CHF
With lack of meaningful catalyst, CHF remains to be weak fundamentally but neutral sentimentally especially from the safe heaven inflows.
Current Central Banks Positions
Hawkish
FED
RBA
Neutral
BOE
Dovish
ECB
BOC
RBNZ
SNB
BOJ
Current Bank Rates
NZD > AUD > USD > CAD > GBP > EUR > JPY > CHF
10 yrs Bond Yields
NZD 3.345
AUD 2.905
USD 2.548
CAD 1.765
UK 1.223
EUR 0.353
JPY 0.079
CHF -0.104