We had no tier one datas over the weekend and no tier one datas on Monday, a very usual Monday.
ECB Draghi came out speaks today but nothing new, we’re still waiting to see if the bond buying program is going to be extended and right it is very likely to be.
The major focus right now is Wednesday’s OPEC meeting which will be a big impact on the oil market and US dollar.
We have many speculation both good/bad for the oil market, and that’s why we kept seeing ups and downs in WTI market, we had a large drop last Friday but a strong green today, and expect to see more volatility as we approach to the meeting.
Equity markets were all red today as we lost the momentum of risk on sentiment, and USD has pullback from the high - although still fundamentally the strongest currency, but right now the outcome of oil market and the nature retracement have all weighed in.
EURO is still pressured on the ECB bond buying decision and also the Italian referendum next week but the month end buying flow and France right’s presidential primary have helped to support it. Right now it seems ECB is firmly on stimulus.
AUD & NZD are the strongest currencies for now as the commodity market has picked up the price.
GBP is also neutral due to positive budget report last week, but since now the negotiation with Eurozone has started and we shall see more actions with the updates.
JPY & CHF continues to be the weakest currency but the new few major events might cause safe heaven buying.
CAD will be the headline currency for this week as OPEC meeting unfolds.
COT
AUD - positive 40,000
GBP - negative 75,000
CAD - negative 20,000
EUR - negative 100,000
JPY - positive 20,000
CHF - negative 20,000
USD - positive 50,000
NZD - below 0
London session analysis
There were no tier one data over the Asia session. BOC Poloz speaks about the outlook for rate decision and still emphasized on the word “uncertainty”. The OPEC meeting outcome will really play a big factor for BOC’s next meeting.
Right now we think the strong currencies are still AUD & NZD as they’re the only currencies that are free of major impact from any major events. The weak currencies are still EURO, JPY & CHF.
CAD is very uncertain for now and it is best to stay out as we don’t know what direction they’re going.
GBP is also neutral but uncertain.
Because the overall uncertainty of the market, and the month end flow into EUR, the best currency to short is perhaps CHF.
USD is still the strongest currency fundamentally, but we want to avoid buying it against AUD, NZD, CAD, EUR & GBP. SO only CHF & JPY.
LONG
AUD/JPY
AUD/CHF
NZD/JPY
NZD/CHF
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
SHORT
EUR/AUD - existing order @ 1.4227; already BE
EUR/NZD
We had no tier one datas over the weekend and no tier one datas on Monday, a very usual Monday.
ECB Draghi came out speaks today but nothing new, we’re still waiting to see if the bond buying program is going to be extended and right it is very likely to be.
The major focus right now is Wednesday’s OPEC meeting which will be a big impact on the oil market and US dollar.
We have many speculation both good/bad for the oil market, and that’s why we kept seeing ups and downs in WTI market, we had a large drop last Friday but a strong green today, and expect to see more volatility as we approach to the meeting.
Equity markets were all red today as we lost the momentum of risk on sentiment, and USD has pullback from the high - although still fundamentally the strongest currency, but right now the outcome of oil market and the nature retracement have all weighed in.
EURO is still pressured on the ECB bond buying decision and also the Italian referendum next week but the month end buying flow and France right’s presidential primary have helped to support it. Right now it seems ECB is firmly on stimulus.
AUD & NZD are the strongest currencies for now as the commodity market has picked up the price.
GBP is also neutral due to positive budget report last week, but since now the negotiation with Eurozone has started and we shall see more actions with the updates.
JPY & CHF continues to be the weakest currency but the new few major events might cause safe heaven buying.
CAD will be the headline currency for this week as OPEC meeting unfolds.
COT
AUD - positive 40,000
GBP - negative 75,000
CAD - negative 20,000
EUR - negative 100,000
JPY - positive 20,000
CHF - negative 20,000
USD - positive 50,000
NZD - below 0
London session analysis
There were no tier one data over the Asia session. BOC Poloz speaks about the outlook for rate decision and still emphasized on the word “uncertainty”. The OPEC meeting outcome will really play a big factor for BOC’s next meeting.
Right now we think the strong currencies are still AUD & NZD as they’re the only currencies that are free of major impact from any major events. The weak currencies are still EURO, JPY & CHF.
CAD is very uncertain for now and it is best to stay out as we don’t know what direction they’re going.
GBP is also neutral but uncertain.
Because the overall uncertainty of the market, and the month end flow into EUR, the best currency to short is perhaps CHF.
USD is still the strongest currency fundamentally, but we want to avoid buying it against AUD, NZD, CAD, EUR & GBP. SO only CHF & JPY.
LONG
AUD/JPY
AUD/CHF
NZD/JPY
NZD/CHF
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
SHORT
EUR/AUD - existing order @ 1.4227; already BE
EUR/NZD