Fundamentally, today we had Service PMI datas came out from many European countries with mixed results and generally toward positive as all numbers are above 50.
Service PMI from UK was once again positive than expected but slightly lower than previous.
Retail sales m/m from EUR was in line with expectation and lower than previous.
ADP Non-Farm Employment change from USD was lower than expected and previous.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was better than expected and previous.
And finally we had large drawdown of crude oil inventories.
Overall not much fundamental changes in currencies as market is still anticipated for this Friday’s NFP.
WTI closed higher again and due to the fulfillment of the expectation of drawdown in Crude oil, however, we’re still below critical resistance $50 now.
ADP number might gives us some hint of what’s about to happen on NFP this Friday, the expectation for NFP is positive so any deviation will cause impact.
Sentimentally, after the negative European equity markets, wall street opened and closed with positive numbers and we saw risk sentiment turned on.
WTI as mentioned, also closed higher again today.
No significant news in AUD, but the risk on sentiment today might help it; also no significant news in NZD and the risk on sentiment might helped to support the downside from yesterday’s low GDT price.
Also no significant news in CAD and WTI might helped it gain strength.
JPY also had no significant news, the risk on sentiment and strong dollar might all hurt it and bring JPY to the downside.
GBP still suffered from Brexit timetable negative sentiment and next week the rate decision will come out, which might give us another push down or up.
EUR benefited from ECB rumours of tapering asset purchases, relief from German banks and overall more attractive to buy in comparison with EURO. All these factors benefited EURO sentimentally.
CHF has no significant news while USD continues to be heated by good fundamental datas, but the sentiment will be played in by the elections and we’ll see further action when approaching November. This Friday’s NFP will also give us another push, up or down.
Technically,
we saw EURO had paused against GBP, which might be short-term rebound as GBP was heavily sold all week. EURO has also lost strength against CHF which had no fundamental or sentimental base, could be merely a rebound.
Against USD was an indecisive as market wants to wait for NFP to buy dollar and today’s ADP reading did not provide a good entry opportunity to buy USD.
Against AUD it also had an indecisive day, the risk sentiment was off in European session and then ON in NY session, that could be the reason. We had a down day versus CAD as WTI once again went up and risk sentiment was on at NY session at the end.
It had a strong green candle against NZD today and we can see NZD really is in a very weak position sentimentally now, although nothing major had happened but the rate cut possibility has increased for RBNZ and also the GDT price yesterday was really a disappointment.
Finally against JPY we also see a solid green candle, as the risk on sentiment had helped EURO and hurt JPY.
GBP was still bearish against all currencies but now it’s in a rebound period as we saw many indecisive or reversal signals, again, the fundamental view and sentimental view are still negative, and the best way to trade GBP is to wait for another opportunity to get it short.
CHF has no major move but gained strength due to GBP weakness, and it had a large green candle against JPY, both are safe heaven currencies and both are suffered from risk on sentiment, so we can say that JPY is in a very weak position now as usually it is a more attractive currency to buy among all other safe heaven currencies.
USD suffered from negative reading of ADP today and lost strength against most currencies except JPY.
AUD also lost strength regardless of the risk on sentiment; this could be short-term rebound as we don’t really have any negative reasons both fundamentally and sentimentally to sell AUD.
CAD was supported by another move higher by WTI but as mentioned, a strong resistance is coming soon.
NZD was very weak due to sentiment of rate cut possibility and negative reading from GDT this week, it has lost strength against all currencies.
Fundamentally, today we had Service PMI datas came out from many European countries with mixed results and generally toward positive as all numbers are above 50.
Service PMI from UK was once again positive than expected but slightly lower than previous.
Retail sales m/m from EUR was in line with expectation and lower than previous.
ADP Non-Farm Employment change from USD was lower than expected and previous.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was better than expected and previous.
And finally we had large drawdown of crude oil inventories.
Overall not much fundamental changes in currencies as market is still anticipated for this Friday’s NFP.
WTI closed higher again and due to the fulfillment of the expectation of drawdown in Crude oil, however, we’re still below critical resistance $50 now.
ADP number might gives us some hint of what’s about to happen on NFP this Friday, the expectation for NFP is positive so any deviation will cause impact.
Sentimentally, after the negative European equity markets, wall street opened and closed with positive numbers and we saw risk sentiment turned on.
WTI as mentioned, also closed higher again today.
No significant news in AUD, but the risk on sentiment today might help it; also no significant news in NZD and the risk on sentiment might helped to support the downside from yesterday’s low GDT price.
Also no significant news in CAD and WTI might helped it gain strength.
JPY also had no significant news, the risk on sentiment and strong dollar might all hurt it and bring JPY to the downside.
GBP still suffered from Brexit timetable negative sentiment and next week the rate decision will come out, which might give us another push down or up.
EUR benefited from ECB rumours of tapering asset purchases, relief from German banks and overall more attractive to buy in comparison with EURO. All these factors benefited EURO sentimentally.
CHF has no significant news while USD continues to be heated by good fundamental datas, but the sentiment will be played in by the elections and we’ll see further action when approaching November. This Friday’s NFP will also give us another push, up or down.
Technically,
we saw EURO had paused against GBP, which might be short-term rebound as GBP was heavily sold all week. EURO has also lost strength against CHF which had no fundamental or sentimental base, could be merely a rebound.
Against USD was an indecisive as market wants to wait for NFP to buy dollar and today’s ADP reading did not provide a good entry opportunity to buy USD.
Against AUD it also had an indecisive day, the risk sentiment was off in European session and then ON in NY session, that could be the reason. We had a down day versus CAD as WTI once again went up and risk sentiment was on at NY session at the end.
It had a strong green candle against NZD today and we can see NZD really is in a very weak position sentimentally now, although nothing major had happened but the rate cut possibility has increased for RBNZ and also the GDT price yesterday was really a disappointment.
Finally against JPY we also see a solid green candle, as the risk on sentiment had helped EURO and hurt JPY.
GBP was still bearish against all currencies but now it’s in a rebound period as we saw many indecisive or reversal signals, again, the fundamental view and sentimental view are still negative, and the best way to trade GBP is to wait for another opportunity to get it short.
CHF has no major move but gained strength due to GBP weakness, and it had a large green candle against JPY, both are safe heaven currencies and both are suffered from risk on sentiment, so we can say that JPY is in a very weak position now as usually it is a more attractive currency to buy among all other safe heaven currencies.
USD suffered from negative reading of ADP today and lost strength against most currencies except JPY.
AUD also lost strength regardless of the risk on sentiment; this could be short-term rebound as we don’t really have any negative reasons both fundamentally and sentimentally to sell AUD.
CAD was supported by another move higher by WTI but as mentioned, a strong resistance is coming soon.
NZD was very weak due to sentiment of rate cut possibility and negative reading from GDT this week, it has lost strength against all currencies.