All my September Trades (apologized for not updating on time as September was really busy for me personally)
AUD/CHF
LONG AUD/CHF
@ 0.7369
SL @ 0.7229
09/13 - not filled, cancelled.
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EUR/AUD
SHORT EUR/AUD
@ 1.4834
SL @ 1.5084
09/13 - not filled, cancelled.
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GBP/USD
SHORT GBP/USD
@ 1.3158
SL @ 1.3438
09/14 UPDATES: Filled @ 1.3157
9/15
move SL @ 1.3351
move SL @ 1.3290
9/20
move SL @ 1.3258
9/21
move SL @ 1.3101 (BE now)
Finally out @ 1.3101
Total 57 pips
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EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY SHORT
@ 114.82
SL @ 117.32
9/15 UPDATES: FILLED @ 114.81
move SL @ 116.19
9/19
move SL @ 115.53
9/20
move SL @ 114.95
9/21
move SL @ 114.50 (BE now)
9/26
move SL @ 113.72
9/28
another risk on sentiment day so no movement for these 2 safe heaven currencies; we’re stuck in the range for 6th day now.
No movement on SL
9/29
we got stopped out today at 113.73 with profit.
Although we had another retrace signal to go down, but it's not really clear and we're still in a range bound now.
Overall i'm happy with what i got for this trade.
Finished.
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EUR/GBP
SHORT EUR/GBP
@ 0.8473
SL @ 0.8633
9/15 UPDATES: FILLED @ 0.8470
move SL @ 0.8592
out @ 08592
Total loss 119 pips
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EUR/AUD
SHORT EUR/AUD
@ 1.4939
SL @ 1.5189
9/19
move SL @ 1.5106
9/20
move SL @ 1.5002
9/21
move SL @ 1.4925 (BE now)
9/22
move SL @ 1.4850
9/25
move SL @ 1.4791
9/28
another risk on sentiment day to help this trade and we’re going low again, no tightening on the stop loss yet, hope we can break below 1.4600 further to reach 1.4450.
9/29
a sold off day for AUD as mentioned due to profit taking, and positive momentum for EUR due to month end inflow. Our view for these 2 currencies are still the same, EURO as more negative both fundamentally and sentimentally than AUD, however, we're still tightening our SL to protect ourselves.
move SL @ 1.4782
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GBP/AUD
SHORT GBP/AUD
@ 1.7562
SL @ 1.7942
9/19
move SL @ 1.7814
9/20
move SL @ 1.7656
9/21
move SL @ 1.7395 (BE now)
9/22
move SL @ 1.7324
out by mistake @ 1.7000 (because i set it as profit taking originally and forgot to change it)
Total 562 pips
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AUD/CHF
LONG AUD/CHF
@ 0.7319
SL @ 0.7189
9/19
Move SL @ 0.7238
9/20
move SL @ 0.7275
9/21
move SL @ 0.7320 (now BE)
9/22
move SL @ 0.7364
9/25
move SL @ 0.7367
out @ 0.7367
Total 48 pips
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9/26 GBP/CHF LONG
LONG GBP/CHF
@ 1.2608
SL @ 1.2388
although it’s a risk on sentiment day, but as mentioned the GBP still had negative fundamental outlook, on top of that, BOE member commented today for possibility for further rate cut - which is nothing new, however, it did create a negative sentiment and we had no movement today.
If the sentiment shifts tomorrow we might be stopped out very soon.
Move SL @ 1.2494
9/29
this is exactly same story as AUD/CHF and we're leaving everything as is, we want to see if the tail can hold off as support and if not, we'll lose 20 more pip.
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9/26 AUD/CHF LONG
LONG AUD/CHF
@ 0.7418
SL @ 0.7294
9/28
another risk on sentiment day to help this pair keeps moving. We’re at our 3rd green candle day and should be due for a retrace tomorrow.
Move SL @ 0.7352
9/29
We had a large sell-off today with no real reason behind it, i had saw it coming as the previous green candles were getting smaller and smaller and we were due for a retrace, but i didn't expect the retrace to be so large.
Usually I'll tighten my SL to 0.7362, but i'm only 10 pips difference and I would like to see whether the entry day's low tail can hold it off as a support, so i'm leaving everything as it is for now. Of course, we are very closed to get stopped out and that's fine.
9/30
as expected, we got stopped out today. However, it was such a close call as CHF did have an intervention and we saw this pair reverse with a large green candle today, however, we were out by 10 pips.
well that’s how unexpected the financially market is.
total loss 66 pips
AUD/CHF
- AUD has been fundamentally bearish and same as CHF, however, AUD is still in a much better position and a more attractive currency to buy especially with the 2nd highest interest rate and continuing demand from China. CHF is in negative interest rate and pressure from SNB to intervention to lower its currency.
- There is no specific catalyst but the equity market is making new high and WTI also picked up today to signal a day of risk on sentiment. We have a strong bullish kangaroo tail at 200 EMA as well so that’s why we watt to enter the trade now. There is no major news in both currency to shift the sentiment or fundamental.
- We’re in a overall uptrend with range bound in lower range now, so there is room to go upside.
- The risk is the risk sentiment shifts because AUD and CHF is in the opposite position for the sentiment. Any negative comment from RBA might shift the sentiment as well.
- I’ll manage it technically and tighten stop loss when possible; i’ll also keep an eye on the sentiment news to see if anything happens that can shift the fundamentals.
- Yes because the fundamental is in favour for AUD and no major data to shift the direction for now. Remember to use wide stop loss.
LONG AUD/CHF
@ 0.7369
SL @ 0.7229
09/13 - not filled, cancelled.
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EUR/AUD
- AUD is fundamentally strong than EUR and as long as we don’t have further weak inflation data from AUD or comment to cut rate from RBA, AUD should remain supported due to commodities demand and growth from China. On the other hand, EUR has no significant movement and direction for now, tomorrow we have ECB president speaks but i’m antiquated no major comment or negative comment. In conclusion, AUD is in strength while EURO has no opportunity to gain strength for now fundamentally.
- There is no catalyst and is a pure technical entry as we have a good bearish kangaroo tail below 200 EMA
- We’re in between with room to go downside.
- The risk is in RBA negative comment or really positive comment from ECB
- I’ll manage with risk sentiment and news because that will be the main drivers for these 2 currencies for this week as there is no major news.
- yes
SHORT EUR/AUD
@ 1.4834
SL @ 1.5084
09/13 - not filled, cancelled.
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GBP/USD
- Fundamentally, USD is the strongest currency now and the only currency with possibility of rate hike. Meanwhile, GBP is in good sentiment now but suffered from Brexit and negative economic future. The interest rate of GBP will be lower in the future while USD will be higher, and same goes for CPI, GDP and employment data.
- There is a Bearish Big Shadow in GBP/USD because today we had an in line report of CPI from UK.
- We’re still in an oversold territory but as mentioned, Brexit and BOE low interest rate were all historical event, so we don’t know how low it’s going to go.
- The risk is the positive news from GBP tomorrow and negative news from USD. I’ll manage them by having a wider stop loss and really see how the results turn out and if the results are a game changer for the underlying fundamentals.
- I’ll manage it with patience and knowing that this Daily Trade takes time to work out and must sit through the noises.
- yes
SHORT GBP/USD
@ 1.3158
SL @ 1.3438
09/14 UPDATES: Filled @ 1.3157
- The UK datas were mixed but worse than expected, however, market did not react to it negatively, on the contrarily, it bought GBP slightly. Maybe this is a hedge fund buying to short it for tomorrow’s event, maybe it’s a genius buy in GBP as mentioned that fundamentally UK actually is doing quiet well after the Brexit. The truth is that we never know until tomorrow’s big event.
- I think the pair might keeps going up and then drops tomorrow upon the summary from BOE because they did signal a further rate cut, however, if the summary is more hawkish, then GBP might keep going up.
- I’m still in this trade because fundamentally USD is still strong than GBP and that’s the fact, so i’m waiting to see if the noises in sentiments can pass by and things can go back to the fundamental.
- I will still buy USD against GBP however, i don’t want to get caught up in the sentiment so that’s why i’ll have to see how the market reacts to tomorrow’s BOE meeting.
9/15
- GBP released the rate decision unchanged as expected, meanwhile USD had mix datas with better PPI datas than previous both headline and non-headline. We had an indecisive candle today because market wants to see how the CPI data reacts for tomorrow.
- I think traders are clueless now and want to see how the CPI datas from USD is for tomorrow.
- I’m still in this trade because regardless of the datas for tomorrow, USD is improving the fundamental economy while GBP still has more negative possibilities to come.
- The chart and candles does look like its going to go down from the broken of the short-term reversal uptrend and now small green candles within the previous Bearish Big Shadows. However, as mentioned, we are never sure in this game of probabilities so I’m going to use 3 bar exit to tighten my stop loss now in case we had a really bad CPI data from USD tomorrow.
move SL @ 1.3351
- we had a large sell off days for GBP due to positive USD and general risk off sentiment and also traders are resume to trade the underlying fundamental of GBP which is negative outlook.
- I think we might have some small retrace but overall GBP should resume its downward movement. Of course, FOMC meeting will provide large impact for USD and hence decide the movement of GBP as well.
- I’m still in this trade because it’s working well in my direction now and no other reason to get out. I think even if the FED keeps rate unchanged which is highly expected, the FOMC meeting will be more neutral tone as the datas had been picked up very well for US, so Dec rate hike is more likely and market might further price in to buy USD, which will help our trader further.
- This trade is very valid but i still want to tighten my SL day by day as next FOMC meeting will be a huge impact and possible risk.
move SL @ 1.3290
9/20
move SL @ 1.3258
9/21
move SL @ 1.3101 (BE now)
Finally out @ 1.3101
Total 57 pips
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EUR/JPY
- Fundamentally EUR & JPY are both not doing well economically, both are in QE and have no deadline to stop it, furthermore, JPY actually announced a further QE in negative rate. However, as for now, JPY still has higher rate than EUR and is still doing ok economically, furthermore, the market has reacted to buying JPY whenever the risk sentiment is off. Since both EUR & JPY are in safe heaven currency status now, we will have less risk in terms of risk tone and if all things are equal, JPY will always be more attractive for people to buy when shit happens. We also had a Bearish Kangaroo Tail today.
- The catalyst was the BOJ announcement for possible negative rate but the news soon being digested by risk off sentiment.
- We’re in an oversold territory.
- The risk is another BOJ announcement to talk down its currency.
- I’ll mange it with actual datas because JPY will always act excitedly with the political comments and the trick to trade it is really to trade if very shortly or trade it with patience.
- yes
EUR/JPY SHORT
@ 114.82
SL @ 117.32
9/15 UPDATES: FILLED @ 114.81
- There were no news for both currencies today, however, we did have a down day for EUR/JPY and the reason is because the market had lost faith in the ability of BOJ to depreciate its currency. As mentioned, if all things are equal, JPY will be an attractive buy especially when risk sentiment shifts to off.
- There are no major news for EUR & JPY tomorrow, so i think the pair will react to the risk tone tomorrow, if we have a positive CPI datas from USD, the market will anticipate a rate hike and hence, higher cost of borrowing money and hence stock markets will go down, and hence, the risk sentiment will be off which will boost JPY further and help our trade. On the contrarily, if we have a negative deviation from USD CPI datas tomorrow, market will anticipate a no hike in Sep and hence interest rate is still the same and hence stock market will go up and hence risk sentiment will be on and that will be bad for JPY.
- Because the only risk is the risk sentiment if it’s on, but as you can see from today, the EUR and JPY are both safe heaven currencies and JPY will still be more attractive even if the sentiment is on. Furthermore, market has lost the faith for BOJ which might be continued until next week. So the current sentiment from Japan might help us.
- From the fundamental point of view and from the current triple top chart, i think this trade is still valid and has more possibility to go downside. Of course, as mentioned, trading is always a game of probabilities and we will move our SL to 3 bar exit tomorrow if we’re still in the trade prior market closes.
- The market continued to sell of safe heaven currencies even if the risk sentiment is actually off. Nevertheless, JPY still is the most attractive currency for buyers within other safe heaven currencies of EUR & CHF.
- I think what’s gonna happen next is really depended on the central banks outlook from FED, BOJ, RBA, RBNZ, BOC & ECB as we have all speakers or conferences from them all next week.
- I’m still in this trade because of the hedging out risk. I assume the negative talks from central banks will drive the risk sentiment off again which will boost JPY, and positive talks will drive the risk sentiment on which will be negative for both EUR & JPY. The only risk is the negative talk from BOJ on Wednesday but as market already lose some faith in whether BOJ has any ability to depreciate their currency further, i’m still holing my long JPY trade for now.
- I will now move my SL and tighten it up each day especially when we approach the Wednesday BOJ conference.
move SL @ 116.19
9/19
move SL @ 115.53
9/20
move SL @ 114.95
9/21
move SL @ 114.50 (BE now)
9/26
move SL @ 113.72
9/28
another risk on sentiment day so no movement for these 2 safe heaven currencies; we’re stuck in the range for 6th day now.
No movement on SL
9/29
we got stopped out today at 113.73 with profit.
Although we had another retrace signal to go down, but it's not really clear and we're still in a range bound now.
Overall i'm happy with what i got for this trade.
Finished.
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EUR/GBP
- UK has suffered tremendously from Brexit but post Brexit condition was way better than people’s expectation. Meanwhile, EUR still suffered from economic conditions and polictal unstableness from migration, the QE has no deadline and now basically is in a passive safe heaven status. GBP also has higher interest rate than EUR. We had a Bearish Kangaroo Tail today as well.
- The catalyst was the mix data from GBP which first caused GBP to be sold off but then soon bought back.
- We’re in an over bought territory and lots of room to drop.
- The risk is tomorrow’s BOE meeting which might cause GBP to move largely, or it might be non event.
- I’ll manage with the price action because no matter what the future is for GBP, the crowds will have their own thoughts.
- yes
SHORT EUR/GBP
@ 0.8473
SL @ 0.8633
9/15 UPDATES: FILLED @ 0.8470
- We also had an indecisive day today for this pair because the rate decision from GBP was unchanged, we had a risk on sentiment day and EUR had no major news
- I actually think EUR will still be indecisive for now and really go with the sentiment, so if tomorrow we have a risk on day, then EUR will go down and vide-versa. However, because we also don’t have any new news to push GBP up or down, it will also be indecisive. So i think this pair will actually go sideway for tomorrow.
- I’m still in this trade because i’m already got filled, otherwise i might just get out because i don’t think there is any significant reason to get in now. However, because the fundamental datas now are still favouring GBP, i’ll hold it and wait to see more clear direction.
- No i will not, but i also don’t want to get out now because i’m not in the money or out of money, i just want to give it sometimes to play out. I’ll move SL tomorrow before market closes.
- we had a huge down day for GBP due to the negative fundamentals, however, we also had a down day for EUR but as the risk sentiment is off which supports EUR more.
- I think it really depends on what’s gonna happen next week from all central banks comments and FOMC meeting; if the risk sentiment becomes on, the GBP will regain strength and EUR will be sold off. Also if ECB has hawkish comments then EUR will gain strength and vide-versa.
- i actually don’t have any reasons to stay in this trade but i’ll let the market stoops me out by moving my SL
- move my sl
move SL @ 0.8592
out @ 08592
Total loss 119 pips
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EUR/AUD
- AUD has the second highest interest rate and also benefited greatly from China’s trade and commodities demand. The RBA also has less possibility to cut rate in the immediate future, meanwhile, EUR suffered a low interest rate, economic downturn and unstable future as an organization due to Brexit and many possible others to follow. Today we had a risk on day and we saw a large Bearish Big Shadow closing below 200 EMA.
- The catalyst is the risk sentiment as we had an on day.
- We’re in an oversold territory but with rooms to go down more.
- The risk is the sentiment turns off which will boost EUR, or any negative comment from RBA. But with the negative employment datas today from AUD and yet we will had an up day for AUD, i think the risk sentiment is really playing a big part of AUD now.
- I’ll manage it with the fundamental side of AUD or EUR, and possibility to get out if we really have something negative for the sentiment; otherwise, i think the risk sentiment can be changed day to day and we should avoid the noises when trading in daily timeframe.
- Yes
SHORT EUR/AUD
@ 1.4939
SL @ 1.5189
- The market reacts to the technical chart and fundamental by favouring in our downward direction. However, as mentioned the risk sentiment is actually off today but we did not see safe heaven currency like EUR goes up. This is very interesting but also puzzling for us to find a clear direction in the future.
- We wil have monetary meeting minutes next monday which will have some impact and volatility but nothing major should happen because the next rate meeting for AUD is still far away.
- I’m still in this trade because of the Fundamental picture of AUD vs EUR and the price action is working in our direct now, however, i’m aware of the risk of the sentiment changes and negative comments from RBA so i’m moving my SL day by day next week.
9/19
move SL @ 1.5106
9/20
move SL @ 1.5002
9/21
move SL @ 1.4925 (BE now)
9/22
move SL @ 1.4850
9/25
move SL @ 1.4791
9/28
another risk on sentiment day to help this trade and we’re going low again, no tightening on the stop loss yet, hope we can break below 1.4600 further to reach 1.4450.
9/29
a sold off day for AUD as mentioned due to profit taking, and positive momentum for EUR due to month end inflow. Our view for these 2 currencies are still the same, EURO as more negative both fundamentally and sentimentally than AUD, however, we're still tightening our SL to protect ourselves.
move SL @ 1.4782
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GBP/AUD
- a very similar picture with EUR, GBP is only doing better than EUR but the fundamental future is worse than EUR, and both currencies are worse than AUD. We also had a bearish big shadow today.
- The catalyst is again the risk sentiment for today.
- We’re oversold but with rooms to go.
- The risk is the risk sentiment changes or negative comments from RBA
- I’ll mange with RBA comments and risk sentiment.
- Yes
SHORT GBP/AUD
@ 1.7562
SL @ 1.7942
- we have similar picture in GBP versus AUD but it has worked well because GBP has more weakness than EUR.
- Again, we will have to see what the central bank comments is, but generally our risk lies in the sentiments as fundamentally speaking, AUD has much stronger strength than GBP and as long as the sentiments are not volatile, we should see GBP/AUD resume to the downside.
- I’m still in this trade because now both the fundamentals and technical price action are working well.
- I’m moving my SL again to tighten it up day by day next week.
9/19
move SL @ 1.7814
9/20
move SL @ 1.7656
9/21
move SL @ 1.7395 (BE now)
9/22
move SL @ 1.7324
out by mistake @ 1.7000 (because i set it as profit taking originally and forgot to change it)
Total 562 pips
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AUD/CHF
- This is another very similar picture than EUR as CHF plays the same safe heaven currency. Again, AUD is doing much better economically and has the higher interest rate, while CHF is pretty much non reactive for the immediate future. The only possibility is the SNB intervention but that will be for the depreciation of CHF which will help AUD anyway. We also had a bullish big shadow today closing above 200 EMA after the 6 consecutive red candles.
- The catalyst is the risk sentiment.
- We’re in the middle.
- The risk is the sentiment or negative comment from RBA.
- I’ll manage with sentiment and negative comments from RBA and try to avoid the noises in between.
- yes
LONG AUD/CHF
@ 0.7319
SL @ 0.7189
- As mentioned, risk sentiment is actually off today but we did not see buying into safe heaven currencies such as JPY EUR CHF.
- Same picture as other trade, next week’s central banks comments are going to provide more clear sentiments for traders and we might see a more clear direction.
- I’m still in this trade because it’s working out well and fundamentally speaking CHF is weaker than AUD and sentimentally speaking the SNB interventions if possible are going to help us also. The only risk is the very negative risk sentiment next week which going to turn around our position.
- I’m tightening my stop loss day by day next week.
9/19
Move SL @ 0.7238
9/20
move SL @ 0.7275
9/21
move SL @ 0.7320 (now BE)
9/22
move SL @ 0.7364
9/25
move SL @ 0.7367
out @ 0.7367
Total 48 pips
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9/26 GBP/CHF LONG
- Although GBP is overshadowed by the post Brexit and another possible cut in interest rate, it still has way higher interest rate than CHF and the recent fundamental datas were actually pretty good; meanwhile, SNB has stated the overvalued CHF and will always give any possible intervention to devalue CHF. Price action we have a Bullish Kangaroo Tail with good space and near support.
- No real catalyst but fundamentals.
- We’re in an oversold area.
- The risk is the risk off sentiment continues which will help CHF.
- I’ll manage it technically as we don’t have any datas from both currencies this week that could change the outcome.
- Yes
LONG GBP/CHF
@ 1.2608
SL @ 1.2388
- The risk on had helped high interest rate currencies agisnt safe heaven currencies and GBP went up against CHF.
- I think we should see more GBP strength because regardless of the sentiment, it is due to a rebound technically even if there might be more selling in the future, but of course, the sentiment does help.
- I’m still in this trade because everything works out for now but i’m ready to tighten the SL tomorrow.
- Yes because GBP is still very oversold for the short-term and is really due for some rebound before further selling.
although it’s a risk on sentiment day, but as mentioned the GBP still had negative fundamental outlook, on top of that, BOE member commented today for possibility for further rate cut - which is nothing new, however, it did create a negative sentiment and we had no movement today.
If the sentiment shifts tomorrow we might be stopped out very soon.
Move SL @ 1.2494
9/29
this is exactly same story as AUD/CHF and we're leaving everything as is, we want to see if the tail can hold off as support and if not, we'll lose 20 more pip.
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9/26 AUD/CHF LONG
- AUD is the number 2 highest interest rate currency while CHF is the lowest interest rate currency; all the fundamental side AUD is doing much better than CHF. Price action we had a Bullish kangaroo tail today in between an uptrend.
- NO real catalyst
- We’re in a range bound.
- The risk is the sentiment as if it continues to be off, CHF will go up and AUD will go down.
- By the risk sentiment
- yes
LONG AUD/CHF
@ 0.7418
SL @ 0.7294
- We had a risk on sentiment day because of the USD Presidential debate and market reacted greatly toward commodity and high interest rate currencies; a large green candle for AUD and large sold off for CHF.
- We might have some small range bound and resistance but eventually if the sentiment continues, this pair should keep going up. Of course, any unforeseen event might changes the risk tone and reverse the direction.
- I’m still in this trade because everything works out well for now, but i’m ready to tighten my stop loss tomorrow.
- Yes i’ll still favour in AUD over CHF for now if i’m flat.
9/28
another risk on sentiment day to help this pair keeps moving. We’re at our 3rd green candle day and should be due for a retrace tomorrow.
Move SL @ 0.7352
9/29
We had a large sell-off today with no real reason behind it, i had saw it coming as the previous green candles were getting smaller and smaller and we were due for a retrace, but i didn't expect the retrace to be so large.
Usually I'll tighten my SL to 0.7362, but i'm only 10 pips difference and I would like to see whether the entry day's low tail can hold it off as a support, so i'm leaving everything as it is for now. Of course, we are very closed to get stopped out and that's fine.
9/30
as expected, we got stopped out today. However, it was such a close call as CHF did have an intervention and we saw this pair reverse with a large green candle today, however, we were out by 10 pips.
well that’s how unexpected the financially market is.
total loss 66 pips