It’s been 2 weeks since I was away, and now we’re back in September.
AUD had kept the rate unchanged on Sep 6th at 1.5%. GDP for Q2 was lower than expected and previous, retail sales data on Aug 31st was also worse than expected and previous.
Overall nothing major has happened and changed the outlook of AUD. RBA still kept an eye on inflation data especially trim mean and the next release will be on October. Employment was fair but mainly from part-time employees.
The overall condition of AUD is still effected by the risk on/off sentiment and especially the commodities and growth from China.
I think at 1.5% interest rate and in comparison with other currencies, AUD is still a fundamentally strong currency to buy and we will see how the inflation data shifts in October, but until then, it’s a good buy.
This week we have new employment data coming out which a miss will provide momentum to trade. I’m looking for a positive surprise to buy AUD.
CAD has also kept the rate unchanged at 0.5% but BOC has commented on concern for low inflation, market is expected a possible rate cut. WTI has dropped from high of $49 to below $45 and is now in range again. Employment data was mix but full-time has increased and part-time has decreased, and previous CPI was lower. The GDP q/q also printed lower than expected and previous.
Overall the economy for Canada is neutral in comparison to other major countries, so the only drive for the currency is the CPI data and WTI.
If the WTI market remains bearish with bearish news from OPEC, then CAD will be fundamentally bearish.
If the WTI market remains bullish with bullish news from OPEC, then CAD will be fundamentally bullish.
Right now i’m neutral in this currency and no significant direction has been shown now.
This week we have another Crude Oil inventory coming out.
NZD has no major shift since the rate cut decision on Aug 11th. The inflation continues to be low although CPI data was better than expected, but still way behind the target of 2%. Employment data has improved significantly, GDP data was also an improvement.
NZD is a very straightforward currency, with the highest interest rate among all other currencies, but does not match the fundamental economy and therefore also has the biggest room to cut interest rate. The house bubble is the biggest concern for RBNZ.
Right now without any significant news, NZD is still an attractive currency to buy especially in comparison with other currencies. We need to watch out for any sign of rate cut from RBNZ and as long as there is no major new, it is a good currency to buy.
This week we have GDP data coming out which can provide some movement but i’m only looking for a positive surprise to buy NZD.
CHF is unchanged in both datas and movement, as the least tradable currency, the datas from last 2 weeks were all in line or slightly changed. As the safe heaven currency for Europe, we will always looking to buy it when risk is on or when EURO or GBP are weak. Although fundamentally it is a bearish currency with negative interest rate, the effect of SNB intervention was large and cannot be measured, therefore, I always refrain from selling it unless the opportunity is really good.
Generally i’m staying out of this currency.
This week we have another interest rate release which is expected to be the same.
EUR is also unchanged fundamentally, there is no future direction from ECB and all datas were unchanged or slightly changed.
Fundamentally it is a weak currency due to its QE program, low CPI datas and negative employment datas. It has also become the safe heaven currency in recent years.
However, unlike CHF, it does not have government intervention and is more gentle with its movement.
I’m neutral to bearish in this currency and will sell it against strong currencies.
This week we have ECB president speaks which might or might not provide any insight.
GBP was expected to be very bearish after the exit from EURO and the interest rate cut from BOE on Aug 4th. However, the fundamental datas told a different story. We saw UK released unchanged or slightly changed CPI datas, better than expected employment datas and in line with the GDP expectations.
GBP is really a highly speculative currency now because we have speculators from both sides; on the other hand, the interest rate is now at historical low with possibility to cut further, the QE has been expanded, and the article to officially leave EURO has not yet been triggered. However, we also have large corporations taking advantages of the currency devaluation to invest heavily in UK now. And most importantly, the fundamental datas showed that post Brexit was not that bad as people expected.
I think because of the speculative personality of GBP now, it is better to go with what you actually see - which is the fundamental datas.
So as long as the datas are strong from UK, GBP can be a good currency to buy especially against other low interest rate currencies.
This week we have CPI data, employment datas and another interest rate decision which is expected to be the same. However, the CPI data and employment data will be a good market mover to trade.
JPY is another safe heaven currency with bearish fundamentals. With the low inflations, GDP, employment, it is a very bearish currency to sell.
However, the BOJ is known for its intervention and it is a highly sentimental currency. If there is no major news, it is generally a good currency to buy/sell to follow the risk sentiment.
It is not a currency to hold for long-term unless you have an intervention from BOJ.
USD is a fundamental currency and the only currency with the possibility to raise interest rate. Although the datas are still not strong enough for FED, as the only strong currency now, we’re always looking for opportunity to buy. Sometimes the sentiment will drag it down especially if we have some negative datas, but nevertheless, the USD has now back to become the star of all major currencies.
I’m looking to buy whenever possible but to avoid buying at negative sentiment.
This week we have retail datas, employment data and CPI data which can all be tradable, and especially CPI datas will be a great direction for future rate hike.
It’s been 2 weeks since I was away, and now we’re back in September.
AUD had kept the rate unchanged on Sep 6th at 1.5%. GDP for Q2 was lower than expected and previous, retail sales data on Aug 31st was also worse than expected and previous.
Overall nothing major has happened and changed the outlook of AUD. RBA still kept an eye on inflation data especially trim mean and the next release will be on October. Employment was fair but mainly from part-time employees.
The overall condition of AUD is still effected by the risk on/off sentiment and especially the commodities and growth from China.
I think at 1.5% interest rate and in comparison with other currencies, AUD is still a fundamentally strong currency to buy and we will see how the inflation data shifts in October, but until then, it’s a good buy.
This week we have new employment data coming out which a miss will provide momentum to trade. I’m looking for a positive surprise to buy AUD.
CAD has also kept the rate unchanged at 0.5% but BOC has commented on concern for low inflation, market is expected a possible rate cut. WTI has dropped from high of $49 to below $45 and is now in range again. Employment data was mix but full-time has increased and part-time has decreased, and previous CPI was lower. The GDP q/q also printed lower than expected and previous.
Overall the economy for Canada is neutral in comparison to other major countries, so the only drive for the currency is the CPI data and WTI.
If the WTI market remains bearish with bearish news from OPEC, then CAD will be fundamentally bearish.
If the WTI market remains bullish with bullish news from OPEC, then CAD will be fundamentally bullish.
Right now i’m neutral in this currency and no significant direction has been shown now.
This week we have another Crude Oil inventory coming out.
NZD has no major shift since the rate cut decision on Aug 11th. The inflation continues to be low although CPI data was better than expected, but still way behind the target of 2%. Employment data has improved significantly, GDP data was also an improvement.
NZD is a very straightforward currency, with the highest interest rate among all other currencies, but does not match the fundamental economy and therefore also has the biggest room to cut interest rate. The house bubble is the biggest concern for RBNZ.
Right now without any significant news, NZD is still an attractive currency to buy especially in comparison with other currencies. We need to watch out for any sign of rate cut from RBNZ and as long as there is no major new, it is a good currency to buy.
This week we have GDP data coming out which can provide some movement but i’m only looking for a positive surprise to buy NZD.
CHF is unchanged in both datas and movement, as the least tradable currency, the datas from last 2 weeks were all in line or slightly changed. As the safe heaven currency for Europe, we will always looking to buy it when risk is on or when EURO or GBP are weak. Although fundamentally it is a bearish currency with negative interest rate, the effect of SNB intervention was large and cannot be measured, therefore, I always refrain from selling it unless the opportunity is really good.
Generally i’m staying out of this currency.
This week we have another interest rate release which is expected to be the same.
EUR is also unchanged fundamentally, there is no future direction from ECB and all datas were unchanged or slightly changed.
Fundamentally it is a weak currency due to its QE program, low CPI datas and negative employment datas. It has also become the safe heaven currency in recent years.
However, unlike CHF, it does not have government intervention and is more gentle with its movement.
I’m neutral to bearish in this currency and will sell it against strong currencies.
This week we have ECB president speaks which might or might not provide any insight.
GBP was expected to be very bearish after the exit from EURO and the interest rate cut from BOE on Aug 4th. However, the fundamental datas told a different story. We saw UK released unchanged or slightly changed CPI datas, better than expected employment datas and in line with the GDP expectations.
GBP is really a highly speculative currency now because we have speculators from both sides; on the other hand, the interest rate is now at historical low with possibility to cut further, the QE has been expanded, and the article to officially leave EURO has not yet been triggered. However, we also have large corporations taking advantages of the currency devaluation to invest heavily in UK now. And most importantly, the fundamental datas showed that post Brexit was not that bad as people expected.
I think because of the speculative personality of GBP now, it is better to go with what you actually see - which is the fundamental datas.
So as long as the datas are strong from UK, GBP can be a good currency to buy especially against other low interest rate currencies.
This week we have CPI data, employment datas and another interest rate decision which is expected to be the same. However, the CPI data and employment data will be a good market mover to trade.
JPY is another safe heaven currency with bearish fundamentals. With the low inflations, GDP, employment, it is a very bearish currency to sell.
However, the BOJ is known for its intervention and it is a highly sentimental currency. If there is no major news, it is generally a good currency to buy/sell to follow the risk sentiment.
It is not a currency to hold for long-term unless you have an intervention from BOJ.
USD is a fundamental currency and the only currency with the possibility to raise interest rate. Although the datas are still not strong enough for FED, as the only strong currency now, we’re always looking for opportunity to buy. Sometimes the sentiment will drag it down especially if we have some negative datas, but nevertheless, the USD has now back to become the star of all major currencies.
I’m looking to buy whenever possible but to avoid buying at negative sentiment.
This week we have retail datas, employment data and CPI data which can all be tradable, and especially CPI datas will be a great direction for future rate hike.