We opened today with a Core CPI from JPY with worse than expected and previous, housing starts y/y was also worse than expected and previous. Then mix datas from Europe, nothing major until current account from GBP which was better than expected but worse than previous. Final GDP of GBP q/q was also better than expected and previous, same as other GBP datas. As mentioned before, fundamental datas from GBP have been surprisingly positive, especially when market was so negative toward GBP after the Brexit.
Then CPI flash estimate y/y from Europe was in line with expectation and better than previous, Core CPI flash estimate y/y was same as previous and slightly negative than anticipated.
Finally at NY session, we had GDP m/m from CAD which was better than expected but worse than previous; we also had Core PCE from USD that was inline with expectation and slightly better than previous.
Chicago PMI and UoM consumer sentiment were both better than expected and previous.
Overall, the fundamental picture did not give us too much hint, other than the same story that USD is indeed picking up its fundamental strength, but whether it’s enough for FED to raise rate, we’d never know.
Another good data from GBP to once again signal that things might not be that bad for now for UK, of course, all can be changed once the negotiation with Euro starts after the article 51.
CAD finally had a good data today, alone with the strength from oil market, it should support CAD for now fundamentally.
However, noted that although WTI had another green day, the momentum is now significantly shrinking and we might have a reverse down next week especially if any negative news coming out from OPEC again.
Sentimentally, we had positive US equity markets today and mixed equity markets in Europe and Asia.
The major new was the anticipation of SNB intervention as we saw CHF large buying on Thursday, and total reversed today without any major news - as mentioned, always be very careful when long CHF as you always have a very strong opposite power to go against you anytime, any moment without further notices.
Generally speaking, i don’t eve like to buy CHF especially overnight, weekend or when i cannot monitor. The 2014 event of SNB was still vivid on my mind. It’s just too risky overall for me to buy CHF at all.
Fitch rating affirmed Australia as AAA, which helped AUD, however, we still have strong easing bias from RBA for next meeting.
Same story with NZD, no major news but still positive with the risk on sentiment and risk for further easing from RBNZ in the next meeting.
Other commodity currency CAD had no major news other than good data today to ease the possibility of further rate cut; there was a news of increasing budget deficit due to more expenses and less income but as budget deficit was already planned out, and with a liberal party government now, this was not a surprise and no major effect for currency.
No major news from JPY but as the risk sentiment starts to shift off due to Deutsche bank issue, this might all very much help JPY.
EUR actually had good news as Deutsche bank reportedly to settle the case with US and their stock rebounded largely today.
GBP had no major news but could be sold off due to the strength in EUR & US.
USD has no major news other than the anticipation for next rate hike as good datas kept coming out.
Technically (written after Sunday 6pm as we wanted to see how the Asia market reacts to effect the daily candles)
EUR has a large strength due to the settlement from Destuche bank which removed the risk factor, it went up against most of the currencies except AUD and NZD, as the strongest currencies.
GBP continued to be no reactive as there is no major news, however, the negative fundamental seems to be picking up as we’ve been trending downward more and more often.
CHF had a large down day without any news as mentioned, a possible intervention from SNB.
USD had a good day due to positive datas and resumed its fundamental strength.
NZD and AUD still are the strongest currencies while JPY is still the go to currency for risk tone.
CAD is in the swing now due to the positive but not so positive OPEC news.
We opened today with a Core CPI from JPY with worse than expected and previous, housing starts y/y was also worse than expected and previous. Then mix datas from Europe, nothing major until current account from GBP which was better than expected but worse than previous. Final GDP of GBP q/q was also better than expected and previous, same as other GBP datas. As mentioned before, fundamental datas from GBP have been surprisingly positive, especially when market was so negative toward GBP after the Brexit.
Then CPI flash estimate y/y from Europe was in line with expectation and better than previous, Core CPI flash estimate y/y was same as previous and slightly negative than anticipated.
Finally at NY session, we had GDP m/m from CAD which was better than expected but worse than previous; we also had Core PCE from USD that was inline with expectation and slightly better than previous.
Chicago PMI and UoM consumer sentiment were both better than expected and previous.
Overall, the fundamental picture did not give us too much hint, other than the same story that USD is indeed picking up its fundamental strength, but whether it’s enough for FED to raise rate, we’d never know.
Another good data from GBP to once again signal that things might not be that bad for now for UK, of course, all can be changed once the negotiation with Euro starts after the article 51.
CAD finally had a good data today, alone with the strength from oil market, it should support CAD for now fundamentally.
However, noted that although WTI had another green day, the momentum is now significantly shrinking and we might have a reverse down next week especially if any negative news coming out from OPEC again.
Sentimentally, we had positive US equity markets today and mixed equity markets in Europe and Asia.
The major new was the anticipation of SNB intervention as we saw CHF large buying on Thursday, and total reversed today without any major news - as mentioned, always be very careful when long CHF as you always have a very strong opposite power to go against you anytime, any moment without further notices.
Generally speaking, i don’t eve like to buy CHF especially overnight, weekend or when i cannot monitor. The 2014 event of SNB was still vivid on my mind. It’s just too risky overall for me to buy CHF at all.
Fitch rating affirmed Australia as AAA, which helped AUD, however, we still have strong easing bias from RBA for next meeting.
Same story with NZD, no major news but still positive with the risk on sentiment and risk for further easing from RBNZ in the next meeting.
Other commodity currency CAD had no major news other than good data today to ease the possibility of further rate cut; there was a news of increasing budget deficit due to more expenses and less income but as budget deficit was already planned out, and with a liberal party government now, this was not a surprise and no major effect for currency.
No major news from JPY but as the risk sentiment starts to shift off due to Deutsche bank issue, this might all very much help JPY.
EUR actually had good news as Deutsche bank reportedly to settle the case with US and their stock rebounded largely today.
GBP had no major news but could be sold off due to the strength in EUR & US.
USD has no major news other than the anticipation for next rate hike as good datas kept coming out.
Technically (written after Sunday 6pm as we wanted to see how the Asia market reacts to effect the daily candles)
EUR has a large strength due to the settlement from Destuche bank which removed the risk factor, it went up against most of the currencies except AUD and NZD, as the strongest currencies.
GBP continued to be no reactive as there is no major news, however, the negative fundamental seems to be picking up as we’ve been trending downward more and more often.
CHF had a large down day without any news as mentioned, a possible intervention from SNB.
USD had a good day due to positive datas and resumed its fundamental strength.
NZD and AUD still are the strongest currencies while JPY is still the go to currency for risk tone.
CAD is in the swing now due to the positive but not so positive OPEC news.